The rally in U.S. stocks faded from Tuesday’s highs as Apple Inc. wiped out its advance after a judge recommended a partial iPhone ban. Treasuries declined and the US Dollar rose. A gauge of technology companies in the S&P 500 Index gave up most of its gains, while energy shares climbed as Russia signaled commitment to output cuts. The yield on benchmark U.S. bonds increased after a two-day plunge, though the spread between three-month and 10-year rates remained in negative territory. The greenback erased its monthly drop, and the Japanese yen led losses in haven currencies. Gold retreated.Risk assets rebounded on speculation that the recent sell-off in global markets had been overdone.
To mark my 1800th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2 year rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day To demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoblecom for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 88 points yesterday and is now ahead by 937 points for March, having made 1013 points in February, 1671 points in January, 2803 points in December, 1541 points in November and 2094 points in October. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1600 points
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Goldman Sachs Group Inc. added its voice to those advising against panic over the inversion of the U.S. yield curve — which has served as a recession warning. While the economic backdrop indeed may be less favorable, stocks may end up doing well with a flat Yield Curve the analysts wrote.
Equities
Every industry in the S&P 500 rose, while the Stoxx Europe 600 had its first gain in a week. Japan’s Topix Index jumped more than 2.5 percent — a day after its biggest slide this year. Emerging-market stocks also advanced. A late rally in the S&P saw the market close 20 Handles higher at 2818 for a 0.70% gain.
Currencies
The Euro sank to the lowest since March 11 on continued worry about the Euro-Zone economy, negative-yielding debt and general USD strength. The comments from Makuch had little effect and a rally to 1.1325 in Europe was quickly wiped out in a series of declines that took the pair to 1.1264, breaking last week’s low of 1.1273 and finishing near the lows.
USD/JPY had a steady bid but it mostly came early in the day as yields rose. Creeping risk aversion hit, especially have a strong 2-year US auction and that halted the advance at a high of 110.69 before a 20 pip retracement.
Cable was choppy and was up more than 60 pips at one point but gave it all back to finish the day flat near 1.3200. Neither side can seemingly fall in love with the trade as negativity from the DUP weighed in general, even as some ERG members shifted to support PM May including Boris Johnson.
USD/CAD held up surprisingly well despite the jump in oil. The pair finishes the day down 13 pips to 1.3391, which isn’t even as strong as AUD. Worries about Canada-China trade were part of the story as Trudeau fretted about the Huawei CFO.
Bonds
The US 10 Year Treasury closed 1.8bps higher at 2.41%, helped by the Fed’s Daly who said that the Fed Funds are now at a neural rate. The Daily Sentiment Index for the US T-Bond closed at 93% bulls last Friday night and this is increased to 94% on Monday which is the highest reading since last October before the Bond fell over five points. In Europe the German Bund closed at near record lows at -4bps
Commodities
Gold and Silver gave up some of their recent gains as the US Dollar strengthened. Oil was the big mover with WTI closing $1.25 higher at $60.05.
This morning on the Economic Front we have French Producer Prices at 7.45 am and this is followed by a speech by ECB President Dragi at 8.00 am, with ECB Member Praet speaking at 8.45 am. At 11.00 am we have UK CBI Trades Survey and US Mortgage Applications. Next we have the US Trade Balance at 12.30 pm. Finally, at 7.30 pm we have the latest UK Parliamentary Vote on Brexit.
June S&P 500
It took a while buy eventually the S&P traded higher to my 2833 sell level before falling to my 2826 T/P level with a 2815 low and I am now flat. Subsequently the S&P rallied into the close to sit at a price of 2823 as I go to press. Today I will again look to sell the market on any further rally to 2837/2847 with a 2855 tight stop. I will also raise my buy level to 2792/2804 with a 2884 stop.
EUR/USD
After the Euro traded lower to my initial 1.1280 buy level I emailed my Platinum Members to exit any long position for a small gain at my revised 1.1288 T/P level and I am now flat. The Euro has strong support from 1.1195/1.1250 and today I will be a buyer on any dip to this area with a wider 1.1145 stop. Given how close we are to strong support I do not want to be short the Euro at this time.
June Dollar Index
I am still flat the Dollar as the market never came close to my buy level. Today I will raise my buy level to 95.60/95.95 with a 95.25 stop. I still do not want to be short the Dollar at this time.
June DAX
Thankfully we had no sell levels in the DAX yesterday as the market was firm for most of the session. I am still flat and today I will now raise my buy level to 11245/11305 with a 11195 stop.
June FTSE
I am still flat the FTSE and today I will also raise my buy level to 7020/7070 with a 6975 stop. I would expect some increased volatility after the Parliamentary vote is concluded at 7.30 pm this evening.
Dow Rolling Contract
I am still flat the Dow with the market not coming near yesterday’s buy level. Today I will raise my buy level to 25310/25450 with a higher 25230 stop.
June NASDAQ
Frustratingly the NASDAQ just missed my 7330 buy level by 10 points on the Apple news before rallying to trade at 7385 as I go to press. I am not going to chase the NASDAQ higher given how overbought the market is trading and I will now lower my buy level to 7240/7295 with a lower 7195 stop.
June BUND
My 165.65 average short position was finally exited at the European open yesterday morning at a price of 165.55 and I am now flat. Today I will again look to sell the Bund on any further rally to 166.05/166.45 with a 166.75 stop.
Gold Rolling Contract
No Change as I am still a buyer on any dip lower to 1294/1302 with the same 1287 stop.
Silver Rolling Contract
I am still flat Silver with the market trading heavy all day. Today I will lower my buy level to 14.85/15.25 with a 14.55 lower stop. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 15.41.
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