Opinion – Friday 24 March 2017

It seem that every week the market is waiting for an important event to happen which will finally get prices to move in most asset classes. Yesterday the whole focus was on the Health Bill in Congress and less than an hour before US Markets closed it was announced...

Opinion – Thursday 23 March 2017

Have markets broken up with the Trump trade? Today will be a key test of this hypothesis with the US Congress voting on a key Healthcare Reform Bill which is seen as a crucial test of the relationship between the White House and Congress. If the bill does not pass,...

Opinion – Wednesday 22 March 2017

The US Equity market had its worst trading day in nearly five months with both the Dow and S&P registering substantial Downside Key Day Reversals yesterday by closing down 1.14% and 1.25% respectively. Stocks closed lower and while it hasn’t been any key economy...

Opinion – Tuesday 21 March 2017

Yesterday was one of the quietest trading sessions of the year to date with the market closing more or less unchanged from where it closed on Friday with the US Dollar and Treasury yields in retreat. It has been something of a variation on a theme with the US Dollar...

Opinion – Monday 20 March 2017

R.I.P. Chuck Berry. And R.I.P. anti-protectionism, after the weekend G20 meeting Communique omitted reference to avoiding protectionism, reflecting the new reality of the USA’s position. This turns the spotlight firmly on the formulation of U.S. Trade Policy in coming...

Opinion – Thursday 16 March 2017

Three remains the number of times the Fed thinks it will most likely raise rates this year in total, and again in 2018. Together with the absence of any reference to when balance sheet shrinkage might commence (either in the FOMC statement or in Janet Yellen’s press...

Opinion – Wednesday 15 March 2017

What was meant to be a quiet trading session ahead of key risk events (US FOMC and Dutch elections today) turned out to be rather more exciting. The WTI Oil price fell 1.4%, on the back of an OPEC report that stated Saudi Arabia increased oil production in February...

Opinion – Tuesday 14 March 2017

Yesterday was a quiet trading session with markets essentially marking time ahead of key risk events tomorrow and later in the week. 10y US Treasury yields are back above 2.60% with long dated corporate issuance seemingly a key driver and after being on the back foot...

Opinion – Monday 13 March 2017

In markets, the US Dollar fell along with Treasury yields while US stocks ended modestly higher in the wake of what was undoubtedly a good US Employment Report, but testament to both the ‘whisper’ numbers being to the high side of published consensus estimates and the...

Opinion – Friday 10 March 2017

As expected the ECB left its key interest rates and QE programme unchanged, but a more optimistic Draghi has helped the EUR to rally while at the same time it has also pushed Bond Yields higher. Commodities have remained under pressure and it has been the key driver...

Opinion – Thursday 9 March 2017

Yesterday’s ADP Employment Change came in very strong with 298,000 new jobs created. This number, that is an amalgam of historical trends, other macroeconomic indicators (such as Weekly Jobless Claims) as well as ADP’s own payroll processing data, is often a...

Opinion – Wednesday 8 March 2017

Markets continue to tread water ahead of the more important risk events later this week – the ECB meeting tomorrow and US Payrolls on Friday. There was little in the way of significant movement in bonds or currencies, while equities were a touch lower after having had...

Opinion – Tuesday 7 March 2017

US Equities closed yesterday in negative territory with the Dow and S&P ending the trading session with a fall of -0.25% and -0.33% respectively on what turned out to be another quiet trading session. The Financials were again the worst performing sector in the...

Opinion – Monday 6 March 2017

Fed Chair Janet Yellen sang from the same script as her FOMC colleagues before her on Friday and confirmed that ‘fairly soon’ really does means March. Fed Vice-Chair Stanley Fischer later chimed in with “If there has been a conscious effort” to boost expectations of a...