Opinion – Friday 24 February 2017

More focus on the US economy and the US Dollar yesterday in the wake of a spate of interviews given by now-confirmed US Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin. He gave his first interview with the Wall Street Journal om Wednesday and followed that up yesterday with two more...

Opinion – Thursday 23 February 2017

It is a rather odd world scene right now. Geopolitical factors abound across the globe, with markets again focusing on European politics again, but despite all this and the uncertain shape of US growth, tax and trade policies, the global economy has started the year...

Opinion – Wednesday 22 February 2017

Strong European data failed to excite markets – the exception being equities – as the upcoming French Presidential elections take centre stage. Betting markets now ascribe Eurosceptic Le Pen a 34.2% chance of winning, while a poll by Elable for L’Express Magazine...

Opinion – Tuesday 21 February 2017

With the US out celebrating President’s day, Europe was always going to be the focus in yesterday’s trading session. European stocks ended the day marginally higher following the positive lead from Asia. Losses from Uniliver (-5%) after Kraft Heinz withdrew its...

Opinion – Monday 20 February 2017

Just over a week ago, President Trump promised a ‘phenomenal’ tax announcement in 2-3 weeks, so as the clock ticks down to some form of announcement, market inertia is set to reign. Certainly that was the impression conveyed by Friday’s offshore markets, though...

Opinion – Friday 17 February 2017

US Stock markets closed mixed to lower yesterday as investors decided to take a breather, after five straight trading sessions of the S&P 500 setting new all-time highs. The S&P closed -0.09% while the Dow again closed higher with a 0.04% gain. with bond...

Opinion – Thursday 16 February 2017

I warned yesterday about the possibility of a US rate hike at next month’s FOMC Meeting and that argument gained further currency with the US CPI and core-Retail Sales printing double the market consensus. That has seen the OIS market lift pricing for a March...

Opinion – Wednesday 15 February 2017

Reaction to Fed Chair Yellen’s semi-annual Testimony before the Senate triggered a sell-off in US Treasury yields and a broad US Dollar rally as she left the door open for a rate hike as soon as the next FOMC meeting in March. US equities initially wobbled, dragged...

Opinion – Tuesday 14 February 2017

The US Dollar continues to rally after last month’s Downside Key Day Reversal albeit in a very small way, The narrow DXY index has now risen every day since January 31st and the broader BBDXY index on each of the last seven trading days. DXY, dominated by the...

Opinion – Monday 13 February 2017

Last week the US Dollar regained its mojo largely thanks to President Trump’s hint of a phenomenal tax policy announcement and on Friday the US Dollar waivered, particularly against the Japanese Yen when at a joint press conference with Japan’s PM Abe, President...

Opinion – Friday 10 February 2017

The Trump-trade was reignited yesterday on the back of the President flagging an impending “phenomenal” tax announcement. That gave markets hope that Trump will at last provide long-awaited details on his fiscal plans (tax cuts and infrastructure spending). That saw...

Opinion – Thursday 9 February 2017

Yesterday was another listless trading session although extremely profitable for my members as the US earnings season is drawing to a close with one of the best quarters of growth for quite some quarters. But that, and the tantalising prospect that corporate tax...

Opinion – Wednesday 8 February 2017

In what has been a quiet past 24 hours of data releases and tweets from President Trump, the USD has been the quiet achiever amid simmering political and fiscal uncertainties in Europe, softer oil prices, flat US equities and lower US Treasury yields. Last week I...

Opinion – Tuesday 7 February 2017

It has been something of a risk off session to open the week. There’s been a focus on the upcoming French Presidential elections, ECB President Draghi has been batting back criticism from across the Atlantic on currency manipulation (regretting nothing), US markets...