Opinion – Monday 24 April 2017

The final results of the first round of voting in the French presidential election aren’t yet confirmed. Yet the certainty of a Le Pen/Macron one-two, with Le Pen not scoring much more than pre-election poll predictions of the low to mid 20 percent’s, means...

Opinion – Friday 21 April 2017

We have had a fair bit of news to digest since I posted 24 hours ago, and some market price action across currencies, bonds and equities to accompany it. The net result, in FX-land, is that the Euro is (slightly) higher, as too are the Australian and New Zealand...

Opinion – Thursday 20 April 2017

US equities came under pressure in the last few hours of trading last night weighted down by a sharp fall in oil prices following reports of an increase in gasoline inventories. Meanwhile US Treasury yields are higher along the curve and the US Dollar is stronger...

Opinion – Wednesday 19 April 2017

The Pound soared 2.2% following the UK PM’s call for early elections. Polls currently put the Tories in front at 42% of the vote, up from the 37% result in the 2015 election, and there is a good chance that the government could increase its majority in Parliament and...

Opinion – Tuesday 18 April 2017

Plenty of news, both economic and geopolitical, since we broke for Easter, the net market impact of which has frankly been quite modest. The risk-negative tone that pervaded markets last week and which centred on escalating geopolitical tension surrounding North...

Opinion – Thursday 13 April 2017

Geopolitics took a backseat last night with Trump’s Wall Street Journal interview dominating market moves. Trump stated the US Dollar is too strong and that he likes a low-Interest Rate policy. That saw the US Dollar immediately gap lower along with US Bond Yields....

Opinion – Wednesday 12 April 2017

The global macro picture has been muddied by a rise in geopolitical tensions while economic data releases have been largely ignored and safe haven assets have outperformed. North Korea has warned of nuclear strikes if provoked and Trump’s fingers have also played a...

Opinion – Tuesday 11 April 2017

I saw a UFO was the 2006 hit song by Australian Electro-pop outfit Sneaky Sound. Will geopolitics prove to be the UFO for markets in 2017? Not if you believe moves yesterday with only small changes in yields, equities and currencies, while the VIX remains at a low...

Opinion – Monday 10 April 2017

Who would have guessed that on a day when Geo-polical stress was once more to rear its head via the bombing of a Syrian air-base by the United States, and US Non-Farm Payrolls rose by less than 100,000 (98K and with 38K worth of downward revision), that the US Dollar...

Opinion – Friday 7 April 2017

Bonds , the Japanese Yen and Gold al rose in Asia overnight, while stock markets slipped as investors ran to safe-haven assets after the United States launched cruise missile attacks against an air base in Syria. This attack on Syria raises the risk of confrontation...

Opinion – Thursday 6 April 2017

Yesterday was one of the busiest trading sessions in many months, packed full of data that led to some large intraday moves. ADP payrolls (better than expected) and the Non-manufacturing ISM (worse than expected) gave contrasting reads on the labour market, while the...

Opinion – Wednesday 5 April 2017

US equities have managed to end the day with modest gains while main European equity Indices posted gains between 0.20% and 0.55%. After yesterday’s rally, US Treasury yields are a little bit higher across the curve with the 10y note currently trading at 2.363%,...

Opinion – Tuesday 4 April 2017

Despite the strong economic data a risk-off tone has developed in the US economy over the past two couple of trading sessions. That risk-off tone continued yesterday with falls in global equity markets and declines in Global Bond Yields. US Treasury Yields fell 5.7...

Opinion – Monday 3 April 2017

U.S. equities fell on the last day of a solid quarter, comments from Fed Dudley drag 10y UST below 2.40% and the US Dollar had a mixed trading session, softer against GBP and JPY, but stronger against most other G10 currencies. US data releases were also mixed and...