Opinion – Thursday 17 August 2017

The US Dollar rally ground to a halt late yesterday amid continued US political machinations and uncertainty over the trajectory for inflation in the latest FOMC Minutes. It is no surprise then to see the USD (DXY) -0.4% across the board and US Treasury Yields down...

Opinion – Wednesday 16 August 2017

Well, the US animal spirit is back with a trifecta of better than expected data releases and with concerns over US-North Korean tensions abating and Tuesday’s upbeat message from Fed Member Dudley still resonating, the US Dollar and US Treasury yields are...

Opinion – Tuesday 15 August 2017

Stocks gained and volatility receded as the prospect of war between the U.S. and North Korea cooled. Safe Havens such as gold, Treasuries and the yen fell. Oil retreated.U.S. shares were broadly higher, with the S&P 500 Index gaining the most since April and the...

Opinion – Monday 14 August 2017

Weaker than expected US Consumer Prices with core (ex food and energy) CPI up just 0.1% versus 0.2% expected, did damage to the nascent US dollar recovery on Friday and pulled US short end yields lower (2 and 5 years both down by about 3bps). Soft CPI was seen as...

Opinion – Friday 11 August 2017

Lack of US data releases has kept North Korea- US tensions as the overriding theme in markets. After the negative lead from Asia, European and US equities have ended the day with sharp losses, safe haven assets such as gold and yen have outperformed and the VIX has...

Opinion – Thursday 10 August 2017

Geopolitical tensions surrounding North Korea dominated yesterday’s trading session. However, market moves were contained following a winding back in rhetoric by US Administration officials. In this high stakes geopolitical poker round it appears both players were...

Opinion – Wednesday 9 August 2017

One of the big news from a relatively volatile trading session has come from the JOLTS report showing the gap between job openings and actual hiring’s in the US is now the widest ever. The Fed would argue that this is a signal of a tightening labour market and...

Opinion Tuesday 8 August 2017

Last Friday’s US Payrolls Report was strong in all respects, lifting the US Dollar and US yields across the board while allowing for small-scale gains in US stocks and risk sentiment. Non-Farm Payrolls rose by 209k against 180k expected with trivial 2-month net...

Opinion – Friday 4 August 2017

The biggest news stories since I posted yesterday morning are the 6-2 Bank of England MPC vote for no change in Interest Rates together with downgraded growth forecasts, which has knocked the British Pound off its recent lofty perch, and a significant downside...

Opinion – Thursday 3 August 2017

The big news in equity markets has been the Dow Jones move up to 22000 for the first time ever boosted by Apple’s better than expected sales report. Amid a soft US Dollar environment the Euro briefly traded above 1.19 and UST yields are little changed. Meanwhile...

Opinion – Wednesday 2 August 2017

Former Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan in a Bloomberg TV interview, speaking of a bubble in the bond market. “By any measure, real long term interest rates are much too low and therefore unsustainable. When they move higher they are likely to move reasonably fast. We are...

Opinion – Tuesday 1 August 2017

The pattern of a weaker US Dollar has continued to play out since I posted 24 hours ago, as the Bloomberg Spot Dollar index closed down another 0.29% and the DXY down a larger 0.48%. The Euro has been the largest beneficiary, EUR/USD up and over 1.18, levels not seen...

Opinion – Monday 31 July 2017

Whether President Trump and his advisers are fans of Neil Sedaka  we probably will never know, but with the Q2 US GDP underwhelming on Friday and seemingly unable to break up into a higher range, Sedaka’s number one hit ‘’breaking up is hard to do’’ could be one of...

Opinion – Friday 28 July 2017

Yesterday’s trading session was marked by a mild bounce in the US dollar into the end of the month, amid encouraging signs that this afternoon’s US GDP might yet be a mild overshoot, but against the ever-present continuing saga that is Washington and the Congress....