Opinion – Friday 3 March 2017

Yesterday’s trading session was volatile with EU inflation jumping to a 4 year high of 2%, US Jobless Claims falling to a 44 year low of 223k and Snap, the parent company of message app Snapchat, rallying 41% on its first trading day. Meanwhile on the cold end...

Opinion – Thursday 2 March 2017

Something of a return to the good old days in the last 24 hours, when an infolding economic calendar and rhetoric from Fed officials counted for more than what the leader of the free world had to say. So it was that New York Fed president Bill Dudley – considered to...

Opinion – Wednesday 1 March 2017

Anyone hoping President Donald Trump was going to get into anything specific on proposed fiscal policy or regulatory changes (financial or otherwise) will surely have come away disappointed from his address to a joint session of Congress. It was, predictably, long on...

Opinion – Tuesday 28 February 2017

In the lead up to President Trump’s joint session address tonight in Washington (Wednesday 2.00 am GMT is the scheduled time), the US Treasury yields have started the week moving back up, but without too much conviction. The US Dollar is not breaking decisively to the...

Opinion – Monday 27 February 2017

Another quiet end to a quiet week but with the U.S. Dollar grinding out small gains despite further slippage in US Bond yields (10s -6bps) and a fairly flat U.S. stock market (albeit new record closing highs for the S&P and the Dow). Core Eurozone and UK Gilt...

Opinion – Friday 24 February 2017

More focus on the US economy and the US Dollar yesterday in the wake of a spate of interviews given by now-confirmed US Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin. He gave his first interview with the Wall Street Journal om Wednesday and followed that up yesterday with two more...

Opinion – Thursday 23 February 2017

It is a rather odd world scene right now. Geopolitical factors abound across the globe, with markets again focusing on European politics again, but despite all this and the uncertain shape of US growth, tax and trade policies, the global economy has started the year...

Opinion – Wednesday 22 February 2017

Strong European data failed to excite markets – the exception being equities – as the upcoming French Presidential elections take centre stage. Betting markets now ascribe Eurosceptic Le Pen a 34.2% chance of winning, while a poll by Elable for L’Express Magazine...

Opinion – Tuesday 21 February 2017

With the US out celebrating President’s day, Europe was always going to be the focus in yesterday’s trading session. European stocks ended the day marginally higher following the positive lead from Asia. Losses from Uniliver (-5%) after Kraft Heinz withdrew its...

Opinion – Monday 20 February 2017

Just over a week ago, President Trump promised a ‘phenomenal’ tax announcement in 2-3 weeks, so as the clock ticks down to some form of announcement, market inertia is set to reign. Certainly that was the impression conveyed by Friday’s offshore markets, though...

Opinion – Friday 17 February 2017

US Stock markets closed mixed to lower yesterday as investors decided to take a breather, after five straight trading sessions of the S&P 500 setting new all-time highs. The S&P closed -0.09% while the Dow again closed higher with a 0.04% gain. with bond...

Opinion – Thursday 16 February 2017

I warned yesterday about the possibility of a US rate hike at next month’s FOMC Meeting and that argument gained further currency with the US CPI and core-Retail Sales printing double the market consensus. That has seen the OIS market lift pricing for a March...

Opinion – Wednesday 15 February 2017

Reaction to Fed Chair Yellen’s semi-annual Testimony before the Senate triggered a sell-off in US Treasury yields and a broad US Dollar rally as she left the door open for a rate hike as soon as the next FOMC meeting in March. US equities initially wobbled, dragged...

Opinion – Tuesday 14 February 2017

The US Dollar continues to rally after last month’s Downside Key Day Reversal albeit in a very small way, The narrow DXY index has now risen every day since January 31st and the broader BBDXY index on each of the last seven trading days. DXY, dominated by the...