Opinion – Thursday 31 August 2017

The US Dollar rose 0.6% across the board since I posted yesterday morning in reaction to stronger than expected US GDP growth and a stellar ADP Payrolls print. Equities were also supported, up 0.5% in US and Europe. The upwardly revised GDP figures are the first hints...

Opinion – Wednesday 30 August 2017

The “risk off” sentiment that overshadowed markets after the launch of yet another missile from North Korea did not even last 24 hours. Most stocks were in the red, mirroring Asia, risk currencies such as the Aussie and NZD were somewhat lower (the AUD/USD did not...

Opinion – Tuesday 29 August 2017

With Jackson Hole out of the way, markets and related news have been more focussed on Hurricane Harvey, some more news stories out of the West Wing and the resumption of UK-EU Brexit talks. It was a bank holiday in the UK. However just after the US Markets closed in...

Opinion – Monday 28 August 2017

Jackson Hole came and went and we were left none the wiser in terms of near term Fed or ECB Policy. The US Dollar ended the week weaker, as Draghi’s silence on the Euro boosted the single currency, although some of the gains were pared in the Q&A session after he...

Opinion – Friday 25 August 2017

Markets are little changed in the lead up to Jackson Hole, with little in the way of major FX moves to report. The Bloomberg spot USD index has made some net gains by closing up 0.15%, more from a continued a choppy Pound and somewhat lower levels for the Yen and the...

Opinion – Thursday 24 August 2017

Tuesday’s US Dollar resurgence accompanied by an improvement in risk appetite and hopes of progress on US tax reform came to an abrupt end courtesy of President Trump threat of a government shutdown, if funding isn’t included for the border wall promised in his...

Opinion – Wednesday 23 August 2017

Yesterday was a risk-on trading session which helped see some support return for the US Dollar with the Bloomberg Spot Dollar Index closing up 0.34% (the DXY by 0.46%), while both the Swiss Franc and the Japanese Yen seeing the larger declines. The driver has been US...

Opinion – Tuesday 22 August 2017

Even though yesterday was a narrow based trading session, it was a very busy one for me and my Platinum Members with little data of note. The most significant moves were contained to continued US Dollar weakness (DXY -0.4%) and ongoing strength in most base and...

Opinion – Monday 21 August 2017

News that President Trump had fired his controversial Chief Strategist, Steve Bannon, only provided a short-lived rally to US equities. After recording sharp losses on Thursday, major US equities ended Friday marginally down and recorded their second week of negative...

Opinion – Friday 18 August 2017

US equity Indices have all closed with losses of more than one percent. Treasury yields are about 3bps lower on average with December Fed Funds tightening risk back to 30% from 40%. The Japanese Yen and Swiss Franc top the FX leader board while the Australian Dollar...

Opinion – Thursday 17 August 2017

The US Dollar rally ground to a halt late yesterday amid continued US political machinations and uncertainty over the trajectory for inflation in the latest FOMC Minutes. It is no surprise then to see the USD (DXY) -0.4% across the board and US Treasury Yields down...

Opinion – Wednesday 16 August 2017

Well, the US animal spirit is back with a trifecta of better than expected data releases and with concerns over US-North Korean tensions abating and Tuesday’s upbeat message from Fed Member Dudley still resonating, the US Dollar and US Treasury yields are...

Opinion – Tuesday 15 August 2017

Stocks gained and volatility receded as the prospect of war between the U.S. and North Korea cooled. Safe Havens such as gold, Treasuries and the yen fell. Oil retreated.U.S. shares were broadly higher, with the S&P 500 Index gaining the most since April and the...

Opinion – Monday 14 August 2017

Weaker than expected US Consumer Prices with core (ex food and energy) CPI up just 0.1% versus 0.2% expected, did damage to the nascent US dollar recovery on Friday and pulled US short end yields lower (2 and 5 years both down by about 3bps). Soft CPI was seen as...