Futures Trading Education

Risk-on trade was seen across markets on Tuesday amid greater optimism regarding US/Iran talks, as TASS said the two countries have shown readiness for further negotiations, after President Trump told the New York Post that talks with Iran could be happening over the next two days in Pakistan. As such, US indices posted strong gains, with the NASDAQ 100 outperforming, and most sectors in the green led by Communications, Consumer Discretionary, and Technology. Energy was the clear laggard and hit by the notable weakness in the crude complex, whereby benchmarks saw losses of $4.30/bbl amid the more encouraging risk environment. The Dollar saw losses, to the benefit of G10 peers, as the New Zealand Dollar outperformed while the Japanese Yen was buoyed on reports that the Bank of Japan will lift inflation forecasts. Given the aforementioned risk sentiment, precious metals gains, with spot silver surging in excess of 5%. Treasuries were bid on US/Iran hopes as talks look set to resume. On data, the US PPI was softer than anticipated, although key PCE components were firmer. However, the report was viewed as somewhat stale given its March 10th reference period, likely not capturing the full impact of the recent energy price shock, so market reaction was limited. Fed speak via Goolsbee offered little new. Earnings season has begun with mixed results across the Financials space, as missing on NII quarterly figures or guidance is weighing on names, as shown by weakness in JPMorgan and Wells Fargo yesterday. March PPI rose 0.5% M/M, below the 1.2% forecast and cooling from the prior 0.7%, leaving the Y/Y rate at 4.0%, below the 4.6% forecast but up from the prior 3.4%. Core measures rose 0.1% (forecast 0.6%), slowing from the prior 0.5% pace. Core Y/Y eased to 3.8% from 3.9%, below the 4.2% forecast. The super core measure, excluding food, energy and trade, rose 0.2% M/M (prior 0.5%) and 3.6% Y/Y (prior 3.5%). Meanwhile, the report showed that nearly half of the March increase in the index for final demand goods was due to a 15.7% rise in gasoline prices. The Indexes for diesel fuel, jet fuel, home heating oil, meats and primary basic organic chemicals also increased. Pantheon Macroeconomics highlighted that the reference date for the PPI data was March 10, and therefore, near the start of the energy price shock. The desk said April PPI energy prices would rise considerably further. Overall, Pantheon Macroeconomics wrote that the modest rise in March core PPI brought some genuinely good news, suggesting momentum in January and February was partly due to residual seasonality. It also highlighted that retailers’ healthy margins suggested tariff pass-through was now complete. Although the report was softer than expected the components that feed through to PCE accelerated in March, particularly air passenger transport PPI amid rising fuel costs in the face of the US-Iran war. Pantheon Macroeconomics expects that core PCE rose 0.29% M/M and 3.2% Y/Y. Fed Member Goolsbee said there are circumstances where rates can go up, and circumstances for a hold, or decrease. Goolsbee’s concern is how long this is going to last, noting that more rate cuts in 2026 are unlikely without disinflation. If gas gets to $5 and stays there for months, inflation expectations could get unanchored, which they have to pay attention towards. He would feel better if core inflation made progress, even if headline inflation was high. The longer it lasts, if inflation stays up, it pushes cuts out of 2026. Despite this, he affirmed they will get inflation to 2%, and expectations are anchored so far. Chicago Fed President added have had good news on housing inflation, and so far, the consumer just keeps chugging along. Elsewhere, Oil closed lower by a whopping 8% while Gold was firm, ending Tuesday’s session with a 2% gain.

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For anyone following my Platinum Service it lost 657 points yesterday and is now ahead by  1446 points for April after ending March with a massive gain of 9002 points, having closed February with a strong gain of 5482 points after ending January with a gain of 4757 points, having closed December with a gain of 2599 points, after ending the month of November with a gain of 4542 points, after ending October with a nice gain of 5110 points after closing September with a gain of 3774 points while ending August with a gain of 3362 points after closing July with a gain of 3753 points after closing June with a gain of 3530 points, having closed May with a gain of 3606 points, after closing April with a gain of 7685 points after closing March with a gain of 2254 points while closing February with a gain of 4180 points. January ended with a gain of 2768 points while 1997 points were gained in December. October ended with a gain of 2179 points, after closing September with a gain of 4402 points, following a loss of 301 points in August. July gained 1908 points while June saw a gain of 2074 points. The Platinum Service made a record 9619 points in October 2022.  Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 2300 points. I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking