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U.S. Indices saw further pressure on Friday as geopolitics continue to dominate, hitting risk sentiment. Sectors were more split with haven sectors (Utilities and Staples) outperforming alongside Energy, while Tech, Materials and Communications were the notable laggards. Oil prices saw further gains with Brent settling above USD 100/barrel for the second consecutive session despite more reports of Indian tankers sailing through the Hormuz. Aside from geopolitics, focus was on a plethora of US data. January PCE was primarily in line, aside from Core Y/Y, while the 2nd estimate of Q4 GDP was revised to show growth of just 0.7%, below the initial estimate of 1.4%. Durable Goods disappointed, while JOLTS offered a glimmer of hope, but analysts did highlight there were signs of AI disruption. The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Report saw a slight beat with mixed components and mixed inflation expectations. T-notes ultimately steepened, seemingly a function of profit taking after the flattening seen recently while data takes a step back from the limelight with focus on geopolitics and energy prices. In FX, the Dollar continued to outperform with Dollar Index rising back above 100 while the Japanese Yen pushed closer to 160 despite jawboning from officials overnight. Gold was pressured but remained above USD 5,000 while Bitcoin saw further gains. PCE: Headline M/M was in line with expectations at 0.3%, easing slightly from December’s 0.4%, while Y/Y came in at 2.8% (exp. 2.8%, prev. 2.9%). Core PCE M/M printed 0.4% (exp. & prev. 0.4%), while Y/Y topped Wall Street consensus at 3.1% (exp. & prev. 3.0%). Reminder, Core PCE is the Fed’s preferred gauge of inflation. The Fed’s December median projection sees 2026 core PCE inflation at 2.5%, although an updated figure will be released on Wednesday at the next FOMC meeting. Attention will focus on the projections, although the ongoing Middle East conflict presents the potential for energy-led inflation. Fed officials have already indicated they expect any impact to be a one-off effect and not something that will materially feed into policy decisions at this stage. Looking at other recent inflation metrics, January US CPI was in line with expectations for core but slightly cooler for the headline, while January PPI came in much hotter than forecast. The February CPI was largely in line with expectations but had hot implications for the February PCE. On the Fed, the Committee remains split, albeit unevenly, between labour market and inflation risks. Governor Waller is among those more focused on the labour market, and this dataset is unlikely to materially alter his view. However, the hawks are concerned about elevated inflation. Further in the report, personal income M/M rose 0.4% (exp. 0.4%, prev. 0.3%), while personal spending increased 0.4% (exp. 0.3%, prev. 0.4%). The second estimate of Q4 2025 GDP saw a revision lower to just 0.7% growth, from the initially reported 1.4%, and falling from the 4.4% seen at the end of Q3. Real Consumer Spending rose 2%, below the 2.4% forecast and prelim. Regarding prices, headline PCE was at 2.9%, accelerating from Q3’s 2.8%, but unchanged from the preliminary, while the core rose to 3.1% from, revised up from the 2.7% preliminary and above the 3.0% forecast. Growth was led by increases in consumer spending and investment. These movements were partly offset by decreases in government spending and exports. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, decreased. The revision lower to 0.7% reflected downward revisions to exports, consumer spending, government spending, and investment. Meanwhile, imports decreased less than previously estimated. Pantheon Macroeconomics”are pencilling-in a slowdown in real spending growth to 1½% in 2026, from 2.6% in 2025, but the outlook is fluid, given the volatility of energy prices.” The January JOLTS rose to 6.946 million from the prior 6.550 million, reversing the chunky drop from November to December. The Vacancy rate rose to 4.2% from 4.0%. Hires rose slightly from 5.272 million to 5.294 million, but the hire rate was unchanged at 3.30%. Quits fell to 3.137 million from 3.225 million, but the quits rate was unchanged at 2.0%. Summarising the data, Pantheon suggests demand for labour is still weak, with tentative signs of an AI impact. The University of Michigan Preliminary for March was more positive than expected as Consumer Sentiment fell less than expected to 55.5 (exp. 55.0) from 56.6. Current Conditions unexpectedly rose to 57.8 (exp. 55.2) from the prior 56.6. Consumer Expectations fell to 54.1, below the expected 54.7 (prev. 56.6). Inflation expectations both came in beneath forecasts, 1yr at 3.4% (exp. 3.9%, prev. 3.4%), 5yr at 3.2% (exp. 3.4%, prev. 3.3%). The report notes that interviews completed before the military action in Iran showed an improvement in sentiment from last month, but lower readings seen during the nine days thereafter completely erased those initial gains, as gasoline prices have exerted the most immediate impact felt by consumers. About half of the interviews were completed after the start of the US military conflict in Iran. Oxford Economics says we expect consumer sentiment to continue to deteriorate as the war persists. Nonetheless, the firm expects consumption to continue to grow at a solid pace of 2.4% in 2026 despite sentiment around historical lows. Elsewhere, Oil closed Friday’s session higher by 1.6% while Gold was soft ending the day with a 0.6% fall.

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For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 722 points on Friday and is now  ahead by 3480 points for March having closed February with a strong gain of 5482 points after ending January with a gain of 4757 points, having closed December with a gain of 2599 points, after ending the month of November with a gain of 4542 points, after ending October with a nice gain of 5110 points after closing September with a gain of 3774 points whe ending August with a gain of 3362 points after closing July with a gain of 3753 points after closing June with a gain of 3530 points, having closed May with a gain of 3606 points, after closing April with a gain of 7685 points after closing March with a gain of 2254 points while closing February with a gain of 4180 points. January ended with a gain of 2768 points while 1997 points were gained in December. October ended with a gain of 2179 points, after closing September with a gain of 4402 points, following a loss of 301 points in August. July gained 1908 points while June saw a gain of 2074 points. The Platinum Service made a record 9619 points in October 2022.  Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 2300 points. I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking