Futures Trading Education

U.S. Indices largely saw two-way trade on Wednesday. The focus point was on the NFP report, which overall was very strong in January, with the headline smashing expectations, unemployment rate ticking down, and wages ticking up. The initial reaction was upside in Equity Futures and the Dollar, and downside in T-notes and Gold. However, after the initial move, the reaction started to fade gradually throughout the rest of the session. Alongside the report, we saw the annual BLS benchmark revisions; the total nonfarm payrolls were revised down in the year to March 2025 by 862k, deeper than the expected downward revisions of 825k but revised up from the preliminary estimate of 911k. The downward revisions remind us that the labour market may not be as robust as it seems and perhaps could be a reason for the fading of the initial moves. Analysts were also cautious that the strength seen in January would not be sustained and that job growth was concentrated in certain sectors. Fed rate cut bets were pared with the first 25 basis points rate cut now fully priced by July (prev. June), but two rate cuts are still fully priced by year-end, more dovish than the Fed’s median dot plot projection for 2026, which implies just one more rate cut. Attention largely turns to CPI on Friday. Stocks ultimately closed mixed, with the Russell underperforming and the NASDAQ outperforming. Sectors were predominantly firmer, with Energy and Staples leading the gains, while Communications and Financials lagged. Energy stocks tracked crude prices higher, while financials were weighed on continued AI disruption concerns. Crude prices were choppy, with upside seen on reports that Trump is sending another carrier to the Middle East if talks with Iran do not go well. However, weakness was seen amid commentary from Ukrainian President Zelensky that a deal on territory is the focus of the next talks with the US, albeit price action was choppy throughout the session. The T-note reversal post-NFP hit a snag after a weak 10-year auction, which saw the largest tail since August 2024. Overall, the January US Jobs report was strong. Headline NFP rose 130k, well above the 70k forecast and above the top end of analyst estimates (-10k to +108k) and accelerating from the prior 50k. Even with Powell’s December estimate of a 60k monthly overshoot from the BLS, the report is still strong. The unemployment rate dropped to 4.3% from 4.4%, despite expectations for this to be unchanged. The drop was also accompanied by an uptick in the participation rate, making the drop in unemployment even more notable. Within the establishment survey, private payrolls surged 172k, above the 70k forecast and above the analyst estimate range of 30-100k. Within the report, we saw the final annual BLS benchmark payroll revisions through to March 2025, which saw total jobs revised down by 862k, vs the preliminary estimate of 911k, and vs. the Bloomberg consensus of -825k. The BLS also highlighted that recent extreme weather had no discernible impact on the report. Overall, the strong labour market data bolsters the Fed’s decision to pause as it reduces fears of a labour market downturn. However, it is just one report, and the Fed do like to look for trends. Attention turns to CPI on Friday to see how the inflation side of the Fed’s mandate is in the start of 2026. Oxford Economics highlight the report surprised to the strong side but overstates emerging strength in the labour market. The desk say data is consistent with their view that labour market conditions have stabilised and warrant no change for their forecast on the economy. It also maintains its view that the Fed will be on hold until June. Elsewhere, both Oil and Gold closed higher by 1.5% and 1.3% respectively.

To mark my 3325th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2-Year Rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day to demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details

For anyone following my Platinum Service it was flat yesterday and is and is still ahead by 4007 points for February, after ending January with a gain of 4757 points, having closed December with a gain of 2599 points, after ending the month of November with a gain of 4542 points, after ending October with a nice gain of 5110 points after closing September with a gain of 3774 points while ending August with a gain of 3362 points after closing July with a gain of 3753 points after closing June with a gain of 3530 points, having closed May with a gain of 3606 points, after closing April with a gain of 7685 points after closing March with a gain of 2254 points while closing February with a gain of 4180 points. January ended with a gain of 2768 points while 1997 points were gained in December. October ended with a gain of 2179 points, after closing September with a gain of 4402 points, following a loss of 301 points in August. July gained 1908 points while June saw a gain of 2074 points. The Platinum Service made a record 9619 points in October 2022.  Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 2300 points. I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking