Futures Trading Education

U.S. Indexes closed lower following a risk-off session on Monday with equities sliding on fears of further AI disruption, while US President Trump hiked tariffs. The AI fears seemingly sparked from a research piece from Citrini Research exploring severe downside risks if AI exceeds expectations. This is not the firm’s base-case scenario, but it highlighted how unemployment could spike to 10% with the S&P down 38% from late-2026 peaks (which it pencilled in at 8,000) with a recession in 2027. It largely highlighted payments, software and private credit stocks as highly exposed to such a scenario. All of which sectors tumbled on Monday, while IBM also took a chunky hit as Anthropic announced that Claude can now automate COBOL modernisation efforts – further adding to the AI disruption fears. Meanwhile, on trade, Trump lifted his Section 122 tariffs to 15% from 10% over the weekend. Nations like Mexico announced they will now be paying less tariffs on non-USMCA-compliant goods, while the EU has frozen trade talks with the US and is not seeking to alter the pre-existing deal at this stage. Trump has warned that those who decide to play games will be met with a higher tariff than what they recently agreed to. The risk-off sentiment around AI disruption and also the lifting of tariffs saw T-notes catch a bid throughout the US session to settle around peaks, with eyes turning to supply in a data-light week. However, several central bank speakers are on the docket for Tuesday. Waller spoke today, noting it is almost a coin toss for a cut or a hold in March. In FX, the Dollar was mixed versus peers while activity currencies lagged in the risk-off trade. Crude prices ultimately settled slightly lower while eyes turn to the US/Iran talks on Thursday. On this, reports suggest the Pentagon has been pushing Trump to go for a diplomatic resolution, warning about the risks of striking Iran. Trump has apparently been leaning towards strikes, but has agreed to give Witkoff and Kushner more time to negotiate for diplomacy. Gold and Silver rallied on the risk conditions, while Bitcoin slumped. Fed Member Waller said he would support a 25 basis point reduction in March if January labour strength is revised away or evaporates, but may be appropriate to hold if downside labour market risks have diminished. On the March meeting, he views the two possible outcomes as close to a coin flip and details that he will need to see the February report due March 6 before forming any judgment on a labour rebound. Following the SCOTUS decision to strike down Trump’s IEEPA tariffs on Friday, Waller said it may have a positive impact on spending and investment, will look through tariffs if they come down, and added that the ruling is unlikely to have a significant impact on his view of the appropriate policy stance. Ahead, he estimates Jan PCE inflation of ~2.8% over the next 12 months, with core at ~3%, but believes underlying inflation without tariff effects is close to 2%. Waller expects real GDP to grow above 2% over the next six months after smoothing shutdown effects. He noted that there are reasons, including AI, to think the hiring may remain weak, and said a weak labour market is likely to continue going forward. Elsewhere, Gold surged a further 2.5% while Oil closed flat.

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For anyone following my Platinum Service it was flat yesterday and is stiil ahead by 5202 points for February, after ending January with a gain of 4757 points, having closed December with a gain of 2599 points, after ending the month of November with a gain of 4542 points, after ending October with a nice gain of 5110 points after closing September with a gain of 3774 points while ending August with a gain of 3362 points after closing July with a gain of 3753 points after closing June with a gain of 3530 points, having closed May with a gain of 3606 points, after closing April with a gain of 7685 points after closing March with a gain of 2254 points while closing February with a gain of 4180 points. January ended with a gain of 2768 points while 1997 points were gained in December. October ended with a gain of 2179 points, after closing September with a gain of 4402 points, following a loss of 301 points in August. July gained 1908 points while June saw a gain of 2074 points. The Platinum Service made a record 9619 points in October 2022.  Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 2300 points. I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking