Futures Trading Education

US Indices closed higher, driven largely by mega-cap names as markets look towards MSFT, TSLA, and META earnings on Wednesday after the FOMC. Unsurprisingly, Healthcare was the worst performer, weighed by broad weakness in insurers (UNH -19.6%, CVS -14.2%, HUM -21.1%) after a Wall Street Journal report late on Monday that the Trump administration is proposing to keep the rates steady that Medicare pays insurers, lower than the Street expectations of 5%. Financials also saw losses while Tech, Utilities, and Energy outperformed. The latter was supported by upside in crude prices as the winter storm in the US continues to curtail production, with analysts noting that US oil producers lost up to 15% of national production over the weekend. US data largely had little impact on FX but did add to downside in US 2 Year Yields as US Consumer Confidence hit a 12 Year low; Richmond Fed showed slight improvement, albeit still negative, while ADP weekly growth marginally eased. The main move came near the US cash close, namely existing broad dollar weakness extending after Trump remarked that he does not think the Dollar declined too much and is not concerned with its decline, leaving the Dollar Index at levels not seen since 2022. For the Japanese Yen we saw another sharp bout of strength, keeping speculation over FX intervention or rate checks at recent heights. T-Notes were sold on the long end as the curve steepened; little reaction was seen on an average 5 Year Note Auction. In commodities, Gold and Silver pared some of the weakness seen late on Monday, and saw further strong on Tuesday, even accelerating after the Dollar weakened on Trump’s aforementioned comment; Gold climbed above USD 5,200/oz with silver back above USD 113/oz.  The Federal Reserve is widely expected to leave the policy rate unchanged at 3.50-3.75%, with the latest Reuters poll showing unanimous expectations for no change at this meeting, and also 58% of economists surveyed by Reuters also see rates staying on hold through the quarter. Money markets are pricing in around 45 basis points of cuts by year-end, with the first 25 basis points reduction seen by July. Goldman Sachs said the meeting is likely to be uneventful, with no change to the Federal Funds Rate, only minor statement tweaks, and few clues on the future policy path. The bank expects Chair Powell to stress that the FOMC has already delivered three cuts to help stabilise the labour market and is well positioned to assess the impact. As in recent meetings, guidance is likely to matter more than the decision itself, particularly around how long policymakers intend to remain patient before easing eventually comes into view. Meanwhile, the Bank of Canada  is widely expected to keep rates on hold at 2.25%, as reflected in the unanimous view of a Bloomberg survey of analysts and current OIS pricing. A Reuters poll shows about 75% of the 35 economists surveyed expect rates to remain unchanged in 2026, up from around 60% in December. The shift reflects worsening US-Canada trade relations and elevated uncertainty ahead of USMCA renegotiations later this year, prompting participants to scale back bets on a return to tightening. The latest escalation followed comments by US President Trump, who threatened 100% tariffs on Canada over closer ties with China, including reduced tariffs on Chinese EVs and the reopening of channels for investment, energy cooperation and long-term trade growth. Money markets now price about 12 basis points of hikes by year-end, down from around 35 basis points in December. Data since the December meeting have been mixed, giving the BoC scope to cite greater economic uncertainty in a decision to hold rates. The unemployment rate again proved volatile, rising in December despite full-time job gains offsetting a decline in part-time employment. Headline inflation accelerated, while average BoC core measures eased slightly. The meeting will include the latest MPR, with attention on any changes to the neutral rate estimate, although desks say this is not expected. Elsewhere, Gold closed higher by 1.76% while Oil ended Tuesday’s session with a 3% gain.

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For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 35 points yesterday and is now ahead by 4344 points for January having closed December with a gain of 2599 points, after ending the month of November with a gain of 4542 points, after ending October with a nice gain of 5110 points after closing September with a gain of 3774 points while ending August with a gain of 3362 points after closing July with a gain of 3753 points after closing June with a gain of 3530 points, having closed May with a gain of 3606 points, after closing April with a gain of 7685 points after closing March with a gain of 2254 points while closing February with a gain of 4180 points. January ended with a gain of 2768 points while 1997 points were gained in December. October ended with a gain of 2179 points, after closing September with a gain of 4402 points, following a loss of 301 points in August. July gained 1908 points while June saw a gain of 2074 points. The Platinum Service made a record 9619 points in October 2022.  Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 2300 points. I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking