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U.S. Indices surged on Friday, recouping some of the recent losses. Upside came despite the weakness in Amazon (AMZN) shares after the company ramped up its FY26 CapEx view. Gains were led by Tech and Industrials, with semiconductors surging, which are largely seen as a beneficiary of the hikes in CapEx plans from tech behemoths. However, it was the RUSSELL 2000 that outperformed, followed by the Dow, which crossed 50,000 for the first time. The heavy caps, Google, Meta and Amazon underperformed on Friday – weighing on the Communication and Consumer Discretionary sector. Health Care was also green, albeit the Medicare providers were hit following Molina (MOH) earnings (-30%), weighing on Centene (CNC) and initially others like UNH, HUM and ELV, albeit the latter three stocks managed to turn losses around. The risk on trade supported cyclical currencies with both the Australian Dollar and New Zealand Dollar outperforming, with Sterling and the Canadian Dollar also gaining, while the havens – JPY, USD and CNH underperformed. Note, CAD was also supported by the jobs report, while Japanese traders were tentative ahead of the election on Sunday. T-Notes were ultimately little changed across the curve with a slightly flatter bias while attention largely turns to next week’s events, including US NFP and CPI, as well as Treasury issuance. Data on Friday saw the University of Michigan beat on the headline, while inflation expectations were revised down for the 1-year but revised up marginally for the 5-10 year. Crude prices settled in the green in choppy trade as attention resided on the outcome of US/Iran talks, which appear to have gotten off to a good start, but discussions will continue. Crypto prices rebounded from the recent slump, while Gold and Silver also surged. Fed Vice Chair Jefferson said current monetary policy is well positioned and roughly neutral, allowing flexibility for supply-side developments, with future decisions to remain data-dependent. He is cautiously optimistic about the economic outlook, projecting 2.2% growth in 2026, and sees the job market as stabilising in a low-hire, low-fire environment, with recent softness tied to reduced demand and immigration challenges. On inflation, Jefferson reaffirmed the Fed’s strong commitment to price stability, viewing tariffs as a one-time driver of 2025 inflation, with pressures expected to ease in 2026. He noted that stronger productivity could help temper inflation, and while upside risks remain, inflation should moderate, with December PCE estimated at 2.9% Y/Y – in line with Fed Chair Powell’s view. Meanwhile, Fed Member Daly said she keeps a “very open mind” on interest rates and currently leans toward more rate cuts in 2026, though it is unclear whether that would mean one or two cuts. She supported the Fed’s recent decision to hold rates steady but noted that a case could have been made for a cut. Daly emphasised that to justify easing, the Fed would either need greater confidence that inflation is sustainably falling or see more signs of weakness in the labour market, which she views as more vulnerable than inflation at present. She observed that many workers feel they are walking a “knife’s edge,” and if the labour market shifts from a “no firing” to a “some firing” environment, the Fed may need to respond with rate cuts. However, she also stated she would be comfortable holding rates steady for longer if inflation were to reaccelerate. The University of Michigan preliminary report for February, saw Sentiment unexpectedly rise to 57.3 from 56.4, despite the forecasted drop to 55. Current Conditions also unexpectedly lifted, printing 58.3 (exp. 54.9) from 55.4. Expectations fell more than expected to 56.6 from 57.0 (exp. 56.7). Inflation expectations were mixed. The 1yr fell to 3.5% from 4.0% while the 5yr ticked higher to 3.4% from 3.3%. UoM Director Hsu noted that sentiment surged for consumers with the largest stock portfolios, while it stagnated and remained at dismal levels for consumers without stock holdings. “Concerns about the erosion of personal finances from high prices and elevated risk of job loss continue to be widespread”. Elsewhere, Oil closed Friday with a gain of 0.4% while Gold surged from overnight lows ending the session with a 2.3% gain.

To mark my 3325th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2-Year Rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day to demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details

For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 1909 points on Friday and is now ahead by 3552 points for February, after ending January with a gain of 4757 points, having closed December with a gain of 2599 points, after ending the month of November with a gain of 4542 points, after ending October with a nice gain of 5110 points after closing September with a gain of 3774 points while ending August with a gain of 3362 points after closing July with a gain of 3753 points after closing June with a gain of 3530 points, having closed May with a gain of 3606 points, after closing April with a gain of 7685 points after closing March with a gain of 2254 points while closing February with a gain of 4180 points. January ended with a gain of 2768 points while 1997 points were gained in December. October ended with a gain of 2179 points, after closing September with a gain of 4402 points, following a loss of 301 points in August. July gained 1908 points while June saw a gain of 2074 points. The Platinum Service made a record 9619 points in October 2022.  Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 2300 points. I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking