U.S. Indexes traded risk-off on Monday as escalating geopolitical tensions in the Strait of Hormuz and the UAE drove energy prices sharply higher. The move weighed on equities and bonds, while supporting the Dollar. Crude surged on reports of direct conflict between the US and Iran in the Strait, alongside Iranian strikes on the UAE, including the Fujairah energy facility. The escalation lifted inflation expectations, pressuring Treasuries and weighing on broader risk sentiment. Equities were broadly lower, with all major Indices in the red and the Dow underperforming. Sector performance was also weak, with losses across most, although Energy outperformed amid the rally in oil prices. The VIX rose, reflecting the risk-off tone. In rates, Treasuries sold off across the curve as higher oil prices lifted yields, with the move led by the front-end as inflation expectations repriced. In FX, the Dollar was firmer on safe-haven demand, although gains were choppy following remarks from Fed’s Williams, who said that rate cuts are still expected eventually and that he does not currently consider the need for rate hikes. G10 FX broadly weakened against the Dollar, with higher beta currencies underperforming. In commodities, crude benchmarks surged, while gold and silver declined despite the risk-off tone, pressured by higher yields. Last Thursday the first estimate of Q1 GDP came out, rising 2.0% (exp. 2.1%), accelerating from the 0.5% seen in Q4 2025. The contributors to the increase in real GDP in the first quarter were investment, exports, consumer spending, and government spending. ING highlighted that the government shutdown removed 1pp from headline growth in Q4, and the resumption added back 0.7pp in Q1. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, also increased. Pantheon Macroeconomics highlight that “net trade subtracted 1.3pp from Q1 growth, as a 12.6% increase in real exports was more than offset by a 21.4% leap in imports, more than half of which reflected a further jump in imports of computer equipment, amid the AI boom”. Within the report, Real Consumer spending rose 1.6% in Q1, cooling from the 1.9% in Q4. Prices meanwhile rose by 4.5%, well above the 3.9% forecast and 3.7% prior, while core PCE (ex-Food and Energy) rose 4.3%, largely accelerating from the prior 2.7%. ING summarises the data by noting “Amid some cooling in consumer spending, investment linked to tech and AI has clearly become the main engine of growth in the US.” Elsewhere, Oil closed higher by 3% and Gold lower by 2%.
To mark my 3375th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2-Year Rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day to demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it was made 542 points on the first trading session for May having ended April with a gain of 1730 points, after ending March with a massive gain of 9002 points, having closed February with a strong gain of 5482 points after ending January with a gain of 4757 points, having closed December with a gain of 2599 points, after ending the month of November with a gain of 4542 points, after ending October with a nice gain of 5110 points after closing September with a gain of 3774 points while ending August with a gain of 3362 points after closing July with a gain of 3753 points after closing June with a gain of 3530 points, having closed May with a gain of 3606 points, after closing April with a gain of 7685 points after closing March with a gain of 2254 points while closing February with a gain of 4180 points. January ended with a gain of 2768 points while 1997 points were gained in December. October ended with a gain of 2179 points, after closing September with a gain of 4402 points, following a loss of 301 points in August. July gained 1908 points while June saw a gain of 2074 points. The Platinum Service made a record 9619 points in October 2022. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 2300 points. I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking HERE Please subscribe to this for new interview notification
Equities
The S&P 500 closed 0.41% lower at a price of 7200.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 557 points lower for a 1.13% loss at a price of 48,941.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 0.21% lower at a price of 27,651.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 0.99% lower.
This Morning, the MSCI Asia Pacific closed 0.7% higher.
This Morning, the Nikkei closed 0.38% higher at a price of 59,513.
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.31% higher.
The Euro closed 0.29% lower at $1.1689.
The British Pound closed 0.43% lower at $1.3523.
The Japanese Yen fell 0.14% closing at $157.24.
Bonds
U.K.’s 10-Year Gilt closed 9 basis points lower at 4.97%.
Germany’s 10-Year Bund Yield closed 1 basis points higher at 3.09%
U.S.10 Year Treasury closed 1 basis points higher at 4.44%.
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude closed 3.85% higher at $105.80 a barrel.
Gold closed 1.99% lower at $4522.10 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front we have no data of note from either the U.K. or the Euro-Zone. At 1.00 pm we have U.S. Building Permits followed by a speech from ECB President Lagarde at 1.30 pm. At the same time, we have U.S. Trade Balance followed at 2.45 pm by Composite PMI. Next, at 3.00 pm we have ISM Non- Manufacturing PMI, JOLTS Job Openings and New Home Sales. Finally, we have speeches from Fed Members Bowman and Barr at 5.30 pm.
Cash S&P 500
The big week of earnings has passed, and this week the economic calendar is set to come into focus, with the ISM Services report, the JOLTS report, ADP private payrolls, and the BLS jobs report. The ISM Manufacturing report came in on Friday and revealed that inflation was running very hot in April, with a Prices Paid Index of 84.4, its highest reading since the summer of 2022. This has pushed the CPI swap rate expiring in July, which reflects April pricing, up to 3.72%. So, this week’s Services data should help to round out and solidify whether inflation impacts are more than just manufacturing goods, and whether they are also affecting the services sector. The Prices Paid Index in March was at 70.7, and it would not be surprising to see it rise from that level in April. No matter as the S&P closed last week at a new all-time high even though 10-Year Treasuries are now close to 4.45%. Meanwhile, the NFP report is expected to show that just 60,000 jobs were created in April, down from 178,000 in March. The Unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 4.3%, while wage growth is expected to accelerate to 0.3% m/m from 0.2%. In my opinion, the bond market looks to be Custer’s Last Stand. It never did any upper testing and has come right down to critical support. It is already below a key 13-year support line. If it breaks down from here, we have problems. Looking at the Daily Chart it shows that we are literally very close to disaster. It is extremely difficult to see how equity markets can withstand a further rise in Treasury Yields but as we have seen, ’Nothing Matters’’ over the past 12 months as every sell-off is aggressively bought. According to analyst Jason Coepfert, the S&P’s three-month rally to a recent record high travelled an impressive 9% but less than 3% of the Index’s constituents hit new-time highs, while less than 60% of the S&P stocks were trading above their 200-Day Moving Average. Goepfert finds that since 1928, this confluence happened just once before in March 2000 which was just before the CRASH. On Monday the S&P 500 closed 0.4% lower, which seems like a relatively mild reaction to the spike in rates and oil prices amid renewed tensions in the Persian Gulf. WTI finished the day higher by 2.6% to close above $105, while Brent crude rose by more than 4% to finish near $114. At least on a rolling generic price chart, Brent appears to be nearing what could be a major breakout from an extension of a falling wedge, or potentially a large bull pennant pattern. A move above $114 would likely signal that something more significant is unfolding, and with the RSI at just 63, there is still room for prices to move higher without becoming overbought. Yesterday, the 30-year Treasury yield closed above 5% for the first time since July, suggesting that the breakout in the long end is beginning to take hold. The RSI is only around 65 and, like oil, still has room to move higher, potentially allowing yields to challenge the highs seen in October of 2023. Additionally, the 5-year CPI swap rose to 2.7% on Monday, closing at its highest level since March 2023. Ultimately, this helps explain why rates are moving higher, and if inflation expectations continue to rise, they are likely to push rates even higher over time. Equity prices are unlikely to sustain recent gains if oil prices continue to rise, particularly as the ‘’dispersion’’ unwind plays out. The Dispersion Index minus the 3-month implied correlation index declined again on the day, as implied correlations moved higher. This is all part of the post-earnings volatility dispersion unwind, which should continue over the coming weeks. I am still short the S&P at an average rate of 7097. I will leave my 7070 T/P level unchanged for now and reassess if triggered. If this view changes, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
EUR/USD
My long 1.1660 Euro position worked well as the market rallied to my 1.1720 T/P level and I am now flat. Today, I will again be a buyer on any further dip lower to 1.1550/1.1630 while leaving my 1.1495 ‘Closing Stop’ unchanged. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 1.1690.
Dollar Index
The Dollar hit my buy range for a now 98.30 long position. I will add to this position at 97.50 while leaving my 96.95 ‘Closing Stop’ unchanged. I will now lower my T/P level to 98.80. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Russell 2000
Wrong! I was stopped out of my latest 2725 average short position at 2795 and I am still flat. Thursday’s record close saw that just 4% of the Russell 2000 stocks climb to a new high while an incredible 40% of these stocks have no earnings. Today, I will again be a seller from 2830/2900 with a higher 2965 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 2760.
FTSE 100
Shortly after I posted on Thursday the FTSE rallied to my 10280 T/P level on my latest 10215 average long position and I am still flat. Today, I will again be a buyer on any further dip lower to 10110/10210 with a lower 10045 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 10280.
Dow Rolling Contract
The Dow saw plenty of two-way price action since Thursday. Shortly after my Daily Commentary was posted the Dow rallied to my 48760 T/P level on my latest 48580 long position. Much better than expected earnings from Caterpillar saw the Dow rally a further 900 points on the day before reversing most of these losses on Friday/Monday and I am still flat. The Dow has short-term support from 48500/48800 where I will again be a buyer with a higher 48295 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 49120. I still do not want to be short the Dow at this time. If this view changes, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Cash NASDAQ 100
The NDX traded in a wide range over the past three sessions. Initially the market sold off to my revised 27058 T/P level on my latest 27305 average short position before turning around and rallying over 750 points to new all-time highs. This latest rally has me short at an average rate of 27430 with a tight 27705 ‘Closing Stop’. I will have a T/P level on this position at 27290. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
December BUND
My latest 124.90 long Bund position worked well as the market rallied to my 125.50 T/P level and I am now flat. With Bund Yields continuing to trade near 18-year highs rallies are being sold. However, the Bund is oversold and due a more meaningful bounce. The Bund has short-term support from 123.80/124.60 where I will be a strong buyer with a lower 122.95 wider ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 125.20.
Gold Rolling Contract
I am still flat. The bottom of the Bollinger Band comes in at a price of 4364 this morning. Today, I will continue to be a buyer from 4330/4430 while leaving my 4195 wider ‘Closing Stop’ unchanged. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 4540. If this view changes, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Silver Rolling Contract
I am still flat. Today, I will continue to be a strong buyer on any further dip lower to 67.00/70.00 with the same 64.95 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 73.10.
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