US Indexes closed mixed on Tuesday, with the S&P 500 eking out gains and the Dow Jones outperforming, while the NASDAQ 100 was the clear laggard. The Dow’s strength was driven by gains in UnitedHealth (UNH), Amgen (AMGN) and Sherwin-Williams (SHW). The tech-heavy Nasdaq was weighed on by weakness in semiconductor names, with the Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) and Memory ETF (DRAM) both posting notable losses, tracking an extraordinary 10% decline in South Korea’s KOSPI overnight as the global AI trade remained under heavy pressure. Despite the headline weakness, the equal-weight S&P 500 (RSP) advanced, highlighting positive underlying market breadth. On a sector basis, all but three sectors closed in positive territory, with Health Care, Consumer Staples and Materials outperforming, while Technology and Industrials—both heavily exposed to the AI theme—lagged alongside Energy, which was pressured by the sharp decline in crude prices. Crude prices tumbled on Tuesday, extending Monday’s losses as signs of de-escalation between the US and Iran continued to build. The key catalyst during the session came after Fox, citing an earlier Times of Israel report, said mediators believe the US and Iran are close to reviving the previously failed Memorandum of Understanding. Additional reports that Oman has proposed a regional framework involving Iran and Gulf states to help manage security in the Strait of Hormuz, alongside reports of Iranian flexibility over Strait operations, added to the constructive tone and further weighed on the crude complex. In FX, the Dollar was mixed against its G10 peers, with NZD, EUR and CAD seeing modest gains, while AUD underperformed, giving back some of Monday’s outperformance. Treasuries rallied across the curve as the continued decline in oil prices eased inflation concerns, while the USD 44 Billion 7-year note auction produced a broadly average result and generated little market reaction. Attention now turns to Wednesday’s FOMC decision and Chair Warsh’s press conference, alongside earnings from Meta (META) and Microsoft (MSFT), before US GDP and PCE data on Thursday. The Federal Reserve is expected to leave rates unchanged at 3.50-3.75%, with money markets currently assigning a 36% chance of a hike on Wednesday, and 36bps of tightening currently priced in by year-end. Most sell-side analysts see the Central Bank leaving rates on hold, highlighted by the latest Reuters poll which saw all 104 forecasters expecting an unchanged rate decision. 78 out of 104 see no change throughout the year, while only 6 see rate cuts. Meanwhile, despite consensus for a hold, 66% of respondents now view the likelihood of a rate hike this year as “high,” a significant shift from the “low” sentiment recorded in June. Nonetheless, outside of the poll Citadel gave an out of consensus call and sees a 25bps hike on Wednesday. A softer than expected June CPI report and weaker Non-Farm Payrolls give the Committee room to wait, and forward guidance is not expected to see any forward guidance given the alteration in communication policy. This would allow officials to assess how the Middle East conflict develops, particularly after the recent escalations and subsequent de-escalations between the US and Iran, which has resulted in volatile oil prices. Policymakers have previously cautioned against responding too quickly to what may prove to be a temporary shock, although underlying inflation remains well above target. For Chair Warsh, the most likely outcome may therefore be a hawkish hold. In the June projections, nine of the 18 participants who submitted forecasts expected at least one rate hike this year. Elsewhere, Oil closed Tuesday with a 4.2% fall while Gold closed lower by over 1%.
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For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 290 points yesterday and is now ahead by 6876 points for July after ending June with a new record of 10527 points after ending May with a loss of 1104 points, having ended April with a gain of 1730 points, after ending March with a massive gain of 9002 points, having closed February with a strong gain of 5482 points after ending January with a gain of 4757 points, having closed December with a gain of 2599 points, after ending the month of November with a gain of 4542 points, after ending October with a nice gain of 5110 points after closing September with a gain of 3774 points while ending August with a gain of 3362 points after closing July with a gain of 3753 points after closing June with a gain of 3530 points, having closed May with a gain of 3606 points, after closing April with a gain of 7685 points after closing March with a gain of 2254 points while closing February with a gain of 4180 points. January ended with a gain of 2768 points while 1997 points were gained in December. October ended with a gain of 2179 points, after closing September with a gain of 4402 points, following a loss of 301 points in August. July gained 1908 points while June saw a gain of 2074 points. The Platinum Service made a previous record 9619 points in October 2022. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 2300 points. I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking HERE Please subscribe to this for new interview notification
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