US Indexes closed mixed on Tuesday, with the S&P 500 eking out gains and the Dow Jones outperforming, while the NASDAQ 100 was the clear laggard. The Dow’s strength was driven by gains in UnitedHealth (UNH), Amgen (AMGN) and Sherwin-Williams (SHW). The tech-heavy Nasdaq was weighed on by weakness in semiconductor names, with the Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) and Memory ETF (DRAM) both posting notable losses, tracking an extraordinary 10% decline in South Korea’s KOSPI overnight as the global AI trade remained under heavy pressure. Despite the headline weakness, the equal-weight S&P 500 (RSP) advanced, highlighting positive underlying market breadth. On a sector basis, all but three sectors closed in positive territory, with Health Care, Consumer Staples and Materials outperforming, while Technology and Industrials—both heavily exposed to the AI theme—lagged alongside Energy, which was pressured by the sharp decline in crude prices. Crude prices tumbled on Tuesday, extending Monday’s losses as signs of de-escalation between the US and Iran continued to build. The key catalyst during the session came after Fox, citing an earlier Times of Israel report, said mediators believe the US and Iran are close to reviving the previously failed Memorandum of Understanding. Additional reports that Oman has proposed a regional framework involving Iran and Gulf states to help manage security in the Strait of Hormuz, alongside reports of Iranian flexibility over Strait operations, added to the constructive tone and further weighed on the crude complex. In FX, the Dollar was mixed against its G10 peers, with NZD, EUR and CAD seeing modest gains, while AUD underperformed, giving back some of Monday’s outperformance. Treasuries rallied across the curve as the continued decline in oil prices eased inflation concerns, while the USD 44 Billion 7-year note auction produced a broadly average result and generated little market reaction. Attention now turns to Wednesday’s FOMC decision and Chair Warsh’s press conference, alongside earnings from Meta (META) and Microsoft (MSFT), before US GDP and PCE data on Thursday. The Federal Reserve is expected to leave rates unchanged at 3.50-3.75%, with money markets currently assigning a 36% chance of a hike on Wednesday, and 36bps of tightening currently priced in by year-end. Most sell-side analysts see the Central Bank leaving rates on hold, highlighted by the latest Reuters poll which saw all 104 forecasters expecting an unchanged rate decision. 78 out of 104 see no change throughout the year, while only 6 see rate cuts. Meanwhile, despite consensus for a hold, 66% of respondents now view the likelihood of a rate hike this year as “high,” a significant shift from the “low” sentiment recorded in June. Nonetheless, outside of the poll Citadel gave an out of consensus call and sees a 25bps hike on Wednesday. A softer than expected June CPI report and weaker Non-Farm Payrolls give the Committee room to wait, and forward guidance is not expected to see any forward guidance given the alteration in communication policy. This would allow officials to assess how the Middle East conflict develops, particularly after the recent escalations and subsequent de-escalations between the US and Iran, which has resulted in volatile oil prices. Policymakers have previously cautioned against responding too quickly to what may prove to be a temporary shock, although underlying inflation remains well above target. For Chair Warsh, the most likely outcome may therefore be a hawkish hold. In the June projections, nine of the 18 participants who submitted forecasts expected at least one rate hike this year. Elsewhere, Oil closed Tuesday with a 4.2% fall while Gold closed lower by over 1%.
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For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 290 points yesterday and is now ahead by 6876 points for July after ending June with a new record of 10527 points after ending May with a loss of 1104 points, having ended April with a gain of 1730 points, after ending March with a massive gain of 9002 points, having closed February with a strong gain of 5482 points after ending January with a gain of 4757 points, having closed December with a gain of 2599 points, after ending the month of November with a gain of 4542 points, after ending October with a nice gain of 5110 points after closing September with a gain of 3774 points while ending August with a gain of 3362 points after closing July with a gain of 3753 points after closing June with a gain of 3530 points, having closed May with a gain of 3606 points, after closing April with a gain of 7685 points after closing March with a gain of 2254 points while closing February with a gain of 4180 points. January ended with a gain of 2768 points while 1997 points were gained in December. October ended with a gain of 2179 points, after closing September with a gain of 4402 points, following a loss of 301 points in August. July gained 1908 points while June saw a gain of 2074 points. The Platinum Service made a previous record 9619 points in October 2022. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 2300 points. I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking HERE Please subscribe to this for new interview notification
Equities
The S&P 500 closed 0.21% higher at a price of 7428.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 537 points higher for a 1.03% gain at a price of 52,747.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 0.98% lower at a price of 27,763.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 0.35% higher.
This Morning, the MSCI Asia Pacific closed 0.8% lower.
This Morning, the Nikkei closed 1.71% lower at 61,315.
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.07% lower.
The Euro closed 0.05% higher at $1.1390.
The British Pound closed 0.12% lower at $1.3289.
The Japanese Yen fell 0.8% closing at $163.79.
Bonds
U.K.’s 10-Year Gilt closed 5 basis points lower at 4.95%.
Germany’s 10-Year Bund Yield closed 2 basis points lower at 3.11%
U.S.10 Year Treasury closed 3 basis points lower at 4.60%.
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude closed 4.20% lower at $79.14 a barrel.
Gold closed 1.17% lower at $4028.10 an ounce.
Today on the Economic front we already had the release of the German Import Price Index which fell 0.7% as expected. Next, we have U.K. Money Supply and Net Lending to Individuals at 9.30 am. have no data of note due from either the U.K. or the Euro-Zone. At 10.30 am we have a German 10-year Bund Auction followed by U.S. MBA Mortgage Applications at 12.00 pm. Finally, we have the FOMC Statement at 7.00 pm followed by Fed Chair Warsh Press Conference at 7.30 pm.
Cash S&P 500
Semiconductors were hit hard again on Tuesday, and it is probably no surprise that the Korean Won continues to strengthen. The Won appears to have become an important part of the semiconductor story we have witnessed over the past several months. Korean investment flows into the U.S. equity market have been extraordinary since April 2025, with cumulative holdings rising from around $200 billion to roughly $800 billion by June. Since June 2025, the Won has weakened considerably. During that same period, the semiconductor sector experienced a powerful rally. The inverse relationship has been striking, with a weaker Won coinciding with increasingly strong gains in semiconductor stocks. One reason the semiconductor trade may be starting to unwind is that USD/KRW has declined to a less favorable level, reducing one of the tailwinds that coincided with the sector’s rally. At the same time, Korean policymakers appear increasingly uncomfortable with the Won’s previous weakness. Unlike the Bank of Japan, the Bank of Korea has already begun tightening policy, raising its benchmark rate by 25 basis points on July 15. Markets expect another 25-basis-point hike in August and possibly one more before year-end, bringing the policy rate to around 3.25%. Korea’s two-year government bond yield has risen to roughly 3.71%, while the 10-year yield has climbed above 4.3%. At the same time, the interest rate differential between the U.S. and Korea has narrowed significantly. As with any currency trade, when an interest-rate advantage that once heavily favored the Dollar begins to disappear—and markets expect the Bank of Korea to continue raising rates aggressively over the next six months—the currency tends to adjust. In this case, the Korean won has strengthened against the Dollar. That creates a difficult environment for Korean investors who purchased U.S. assets on an unhedged basis. Not only are they facing losses from the Dollar’s depreciation versus the Won, but many of the same investments—particularly in the AI and semiconductor space—are also coming under pressure. The combination of adverse currency translation and declining asset prices can quickly turn what had been a highly profitable trade into a painful one. In my opinion, if the Korean Won continues to strengthen against the Dollar, the AI trade is likely to continue unraveling. The currency tailwind that supported Korean investment in U.S. AI and semiconductor stocks has reversed, leaving investors exposed to both a stronger Won and weakening equity prices. Chip stocks got slaughtered yesterday. AMD is down 8.15%, MU is down 8.85%, AMAT is down 7.82%. Overnight, the Nikkei is lower by 3% following Tuesday’s 4.2% fall. The Nikkei has now fallen over 10,000 points in the past few weeks which is an enormous move. The Kospi also got hit hard this morning, closing lower by 7% following on from Tuesday’s 10% fall. The S&P never came close to Tuesday’s buy range and I am still flat. The S&P has short-term resistance from 7500/7525 where I will be a small seller with a 7543 ‘Closing Stop’. The S&P has strong support at the Mid-June low of 7350. Therefore, I will be an aggressive buyer on any further move lower to 7333/7358 with a 7309 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 7392. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 7472. If this view changes, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
EUR/USD
No Change: I am still long the Euro from last week at a price of 1.1410. I will add to this position at 1.1340 while leaving my 1.1275 ‘Closing Stop’ unchanged. I will now lower my T/P level to 1.1445. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Dollar Index
The Dollar never came close to Tuesday’s buy range and I am still flat. Ahead of the FOMC Statement this evening I will continue to be a buyer on any dip lower to 100.10/100.90 with the same 99.35 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 101.40.
Russell 2000
I am still flat. I will now lower my sell level to 2980/3040 with a now lower 3105 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 2930. I still do not want to be long the Russell at this time.
FTSE 100
The FTSE surged on Tuesday. This move higher saw my second sell level at 10900 triggered for a now 10860 average short position. I will now raise my T/P level to 10810 while leaving my 10975 ‘Closing Stop’ unchanged. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Dow Rolling Contract
The Dow surged yesterday, trading the whole of my sell rage for a now 52700 average short position. Ahead of the FOMC, I will now raise my T/P level to 52610 and reassess if triggered. Meanwhile, I will leave my 53005 tight ‘Closing Stop’ unchanged. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members
Cash NASDAQ 100
My NDX plan worked well as the market traded lower to my 27580-buy level before rallying to my 27870 T/P level and I am now flat. Today, I will again be a strong buyer from 27330/27530 with a lower 27195 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 27820.
December BUND
The Bund followed Treasury Prices higher as the market never came close to Tuesday’s buy range. Ahead of the FOMC Statement this evening I will not chase the Bund higher. Therefore, I will continue to be a buyer on any dip lower to 123.60/124.30 with the same 122.85 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 124.95.
Gold Rolling Contract
I am still flat. Gold has support below from 3890/3980 where I will continue to be a buyer with the same 3795 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 4050.
Silver Rolling Contract
I am still long Silver from early Tuesday morning at a price of 57.00. I will continue to look to add to this position at 54.50 while leaving my 52.95 ‘Closing Stop’ unchanged. I will now lower my T/P level to 58.40. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
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