U.S. Indexes closed mixed on Tuesday, with the NASDAQ 100 outperforming amid gains in semiconductors and memory names. Materials were the best-performing sector, followed by staples and healthcare; meanwhile, financials and energy lagged, which weighed on the S&P’s performance. Energy traded lower, weighed by the continued downward pressure in crude prices as market optimism builds on a diplomatic solution between the US and Iran, which would bring increased energy supply with it. President Trump noted that US officials met with the Iranian delegation, in what was a “very productive” meeting, with his preference for a deal. However, he threatened Pickaxe Mountain with strikes if the US sees activity taking place there. In response, Al Jazeera reported that Iran’s position has not changed. Earlier reports, citing Iranian sources, noted the removal of military threats is a condition to resume talks. Additionally, Iranian sources downplayed reports from Kyodo and Reuters that Iran was willing to reopen the Strait of Hormuz if the US lifted its blockade. Elsewhere in energy, Trump said they are examining a diesel export ban, a move that would follow growing pressure from officials within Congress to prioritise domestic needs. Despite lower crude prices, US yields were little changed as Money Markets stay aligned with the Fed on one further 25 basis points rate hike in 2026. 2028 Fed voter Collins sees rates on hold through 2027; meanwhile, 2027 voter Barkin said last week’s hike will help restore price stability, although he said “we’ll see” if further hikes are needed. In FX, the Dollar was able to strengthen further on choppy US yields, whilst NZD saw some modest outperformance following remarks from Governor Breman overnight. Fed Governor Barkin said US economic conditions may be firming, and inflation risks outweigh employment risks. He supported last week’s 25bps rate hike to 3.75-4.00%, saying inflation pressures extend beyond energy and tariffs, and that the hike will help to restore price stability. He added that further hikes may be required but did not specify how many. On the economy, Barkin said it is firming rather than weakening, though he would not yet call it overheating; he does not see much evidence that consumer balance sheets are stretched, adding that they will spend as long as the job market remains healthy. Elsewhere, Oil closed lower by 2% while Gold was flat.
To mark my 3425th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2-Year Rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day to demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 328 points yesterday and is now ahead by 5692 points for September after ending the month of August with a gain of 2645 points after closing July with a gain of 8031 points, after ending June with a new record of 10527 points after ending May with a loss of 1104 points, having ended April with a gain of 1730 points, after ending March with a massive gain of 9002 points, having closed February with a strong gain of 5482 points after ending January with a gain of 4757 points, having closed December with a gain of 2599 points, after ending the month of November with a gain of 4542 points, after ending October with a nice gain of 5110 points after closing September with a gain of 3774 points while ending August with a gain of 3362 points after closing July with a gain of 3753 points after closing June with a gain of 3530 points, having closed May with a gain of 3606 points, after closing April with a gain of 7685 points after closing March with a gain of 2254 points while closing February with a gain of 4180 points. January ended with a gain of 2768 points while 1997 points were gained in December. October ended with a gain of 2179 points, after closing September with a gain of 4402 points, following a loss of 301 points in August. July gained 1908 points while June saw a gain of 2074 points. The Platinum Service made a previous record 9619 points in October 2022. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 2300 points. I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking HERE Please subscribe to this for new interview notification
Equities
The S&P 500 closed 0.01% lower at a price of 7764.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 185 points lower for a 0.36% loss at a price of 51,863.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 0.82% higher at a price of 30,732.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 0.24% higher.
This morning, the MSCI Asia Pacific closed 0.5% higher.
Last Friday, the Nikkei closed 1.38% higher at 65,018.
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.18% higher.
The Euro closed 0.19% lower at $1.1441.
The British Pound closed 0.23% lower at $1.3335.
The Japanese Yen fell 0.09% closing at $157.49.
Bonds
U.K.’s 10-Year Gilt closed 4 basis points higher at 5.26%.
Germany’s 10-Year Bund Yield closed 1 basis points higher at 3.46%
U.S.10 Year Treasury closed 1 basis points higher at 4.97%.
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude closed 1.98% lower at $90.54 a barrel.
Gold closed 0.20% higher at $4352.10 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic front we have German, Euro-Zone, U.K. and U.S. Manufacturing PMI at 8.55 am, 9.00 am, 9.30 am and 2.45 pm respectively. The only other item of note is a speech from Fed Vice Chair Barr at 3.05 pm.
Cash S&P 500
The S&P 500 finished Tuesday flat, while the NASDAQ 100 gained around 0.8%. It is hard to say that today was much different from what we have seen in recent weeks. One thing that stands out regarding the $SMH is that USD/KRW had been rising over the past few days before taking a leg lower yesterday. At the very least, the relationship between the two still seems intact, although it may operate with a lag. If USD/KRW begins to fall again in the days ahead, then the recent rally in the SMH could begin to fade. The correlation between USD/KRW and the SMH has been strengthening since 2023, with the current regime lasting longer and showing a stronger relationship than the brief periods seen in the past. This would suggest that if USD/KRW continues to strengthen (fall) from here—and we certainly cannot rule that out – it will certainly have important implications for the semi-conductor sector. Another notable aspect of the recent rally in semiconductors is that CDS spreads for Nvidia, AMD, and Broadcom have been widening. We have seen this divergence before, and if I remember correctly, the previous rallies in semi-conductors did not last. Generally, the relationship between a stock and its CDS is inverse, as we would expect growing concerns about credit risk to weigh on equity valuations and drive the stock price lower. But clearly, these are not normal times, especially in a market where options trading is off the charts. TBD. I am still flat the S&P as the market just missed Tuesday’s buy level by one Handle before rallying 30 Handles which was again frustrating. Today, I will lower my buy level slightly to 7710/7735 with a lower 7689 ‘Closing Stop’. Meanwhile, I will continue to be a seller from 7810/7830 with the same 7851 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 7758. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 7685.
EUR/USD
The Euro has moved lower by 20/30 points each day this week. I am still long from last week at an average price of 1.1500. I will leave my 1.1395 ‘Closing Stop’ unchanged while lowering my T/P level to 1.1520 and reassess if executed. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Dollar Index
I am still flat. With the Dollar trading higher at a price of 100.75 this morning, I will now raise my buy level to 99.40/100.20 with a higher 98.65 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 100.80.
Russell 2000
Frustratingly, the Russell again missed yesterday’s buy range and I am still flat. Today, I will raise my buy level to 2800/2870 with a higher 2755 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 2915.
FTSE 100
Just like the Russell above the FTSE missed my buy level by two points and I am still flat. Today, I will raise my buy level to 10640/10720 with a higher 10555 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 10790. I still do not want to be short the FTSE at this time.
Dow Rolling Contract
My Dow plan worked well as an afternoon reversal in the Dow saw the market hit my 51780 buy level before rallying to my revised 51960 T/P level and I am now flat. Today, I will again be a buyer from 51430/51730 with a lower 51195 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 52010. I still do not want to be short the Dow at this time.
Cash NASDAQ 100
The NASDAQ rose as expected, closing in on a new all-time high. The 14 Day RSI is getting close to a sell signal, closing at a print of 68. I am still flat. The NDX has short-term resistance from 31000/31200 where I will be a small seller with a wider 31405 ‘Closing Stop’. Meanwhile, I will continue to be a buyer on any dip lower to 30050/30250 with the same 29895 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 30790. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 30505. If these views change, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
December BUND
The Bund finally rallied to my 121.30 T/P level on my 121.00 average long position and I am now flat. The Bund has short-term support from 120.10/120.90 where I will again be a buyer with a lower 119.45 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 121.60
Gold Rolling Contract
No Change: I am still flat. Today, I will continue to be a small buyer from 4200/4280 with the same 4095 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 4338.
Silver Rolling Contract
My Silver plan worked well as the market traded lower to my 64.60 buy level before rallying to my revised 65.78 T/P level and I am now flat. Today, I will again be a strong buyer from 62.00/65.00 with the same 59.95 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 67.20.
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