U.S. Indexes closed lower on Wednesday as global yields surged. The Russell was the clear underperformer, while the SPX, NDX and DJI were all lower, with the equal-weight S&P (RSP) down 0.7%. Sectors were predominantly lower, with Utilities, Communication Services and Consumer Discretionary lagging, while Energy and Industrials outperformed. Semiconductors and memory names were hit, likely reflecting some reversal of the recent Muse-induced strength following Tuesday’s releases of GPT Astra 6 and Claude Opus 5.5, while Chinese AI firms were pressured overnight following probes into Moonshot and DeepSeek. The weakness in stocks coincided with a global bond sell-off, with US Treasury Yields surging across the curve, particularly at the front end, as participants digested strong and inflationary US Flash PMI data, rising oil prices, further hawkish Fed speak, a very weak 5-year auction and reports surrounding a potential US diesel export ban. Politico reported that the Trump administration was considering a 90-day ban on diesel exports. The report briefly weighed on diesel prices but raised concerns that such a move could push gasoline prices higher, adding to already elevated inflation concerns. However, a White House official later denied the report, calling it “fake news”. Energy Secretary Wright also appears opposed to an outright export ban, although he has indicated support for voluntary limits on diesel exports. The Dollar was stronger amid the hawkish Fed speak and robust PMI data, while also finding support from weakness in energy-importing currencies. Concerns that restrictions on US diesel exports could particularly impact economies reliant on imported energy weighed on the Antipodeans, Japanese Yen and the Pound. Crude prices settled higher as Iran downplayed Tuesday’s talks with the US, while further incidents were reported in the Strait of Hormuz and Iran continued to demand that its conditions be met before reopening the Strait. However, a senior Iranian official reportedly said Tehran is reviewing the US response to its proposal to end hostilities. Meanwhile, mixed reporting surrounding a potential US diesel export ban contributed to choppy trade. Attention turns to the Trump/Xi meeting tomorrow. The Global Manufacturing PMI Report was strongly better-than-expected, with Manufacturing rising to 57.0, above the expected 53.6 (prev. 53.9). Services rose to 58.7 from 56.5 (exp. 56.0), leaving the Composite at 58.4 from 56, a new five-year high. Growth was driven by the service sectors, with its steepest rise in output in over five years. Employment also rose sharply, at a pace not seen for over four years; meanwhile, backlogs of work accelerated and supply chain delays worsened. Of concern, average input costs measured across both goods and services surged higher, hitting the highest since October 2022, blamed widely on higher fuel and transport costs, though wage pressures were also noted to have picked up in many cases. Pantheon Economics wrote that the composite PMI Q3 average reading is consistent with “real final sales to private domestic purchasers—a measure of ‘core’ GDP—rising at an annualised pace of around 4% this quarter”. Fed Vice Chair Barr said further rate hikes are likely needed to ensure a timely return to the 2% inflation target. He added that inflation is not clearly trending towards the 2% target in a timely way, with economic growth strong and the labour market solid. Barr noted that the Fed was out of position and made an adjustment in the right direction to reflect risks. Lastly, the Governor said risks to achieving 2% inflation have increased, while risks to the labour market have receded. Elsewhere, Oil closed higher by 2% while a stronger Dollar saw Gold end Wednesday’s session with a 1.3% loss.
To mark my 3425th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2-Year Rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day to demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it 25 points yesterday and is now ahead by 5667 points for September after ending the month of August with a gain of 2645 points after closing July with a gain of 8031 points, after ending June with a new record of 10527 points after ending May with a loss of 1104 points, having ended April with a gain of 1730 points, after ending March with a massive gain of 9002 points, having closed February with a strong gain of 5482 points after ending January with a gain of 4757 points, having closed December with a gain of 2599 points, after ending the month of November with a gain of 4542 points, after ending October with a nice gain of 5110 points after closing September with a gain of 3774 points while ending August with a gain of 3362 points after closing July with a gain of 3753 points after closing June with a gain of 3530 points, having closed May with a gain of 3606 points, after closing April with a gain of 7685 points after closing March with a gain of 2254 points while closing February with a gain of 4180 points. January ended with a gain of 2768 points while 1997 points were gained in December. October ended with a gain of 2179 points, after closing September with a gain of 4402 points, following a loss of 301 points in August. July gained 1908 points while June saw a gain of 2074 points. The Platinum Service made a previous record 9619 points in October 2022. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 2300 points. I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking HERE Please subscribe to this for new interview notification
Equities
The S&P 500 closed 0.75% lower at a price of 7706.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 352 points lower for a 0.68% loss at a price of 51,511.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 0.85% lower at a price of 30,470.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 0.44% lower.
This morning, the MSCI Asia Pacific closed 0.5% lower.
This morning, the Nikkei closed 0.76% higher at 65,513.
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.53% higher.
The Euro closed 0.57% lower at $1.1384.
The British Pound closed 0.76% lower at $1.3223.
The Japanese Yen fell 0.56% closing at $158.17.
Bonds
U.K.’s 10-Year Gilt closed 9 basis points higher at 5.35%.
Germany’s 10-Year Bund Yield closed 11 basis points higher at 3.57%
U.S.10 Year Treasury closed 14 basis points higher at 5.11%.
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude closed 1.81% higher at $92.16 a barrel.
Gold closed 1.33% lower at $4287.10 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic front we have German IFO Survey and the Euro-Zone Economic Bulletin at 9.00 am. Next, we have U.S. Weekly Jobless Claims and Building Permits at 1.30 pm. This is followed by New Home Sales at 3.00 pm and the Kansas City Manufacturing Index at 3.30 pm. Finally, we have a seven-year Treasury Auction at 6.00 pm which will be watched closely given the rise in yields this week.
Cash S&P 500
The S&P 500 fell by 0.75% on Wednesday as the 2-year Treasury yield rose 14 bps to 4.89% following a strong S&P Global PMI report. Treasury yields moved higher across the curve, with the 10-year yield rising about 10 bps to close at 5.10%. The move in yields was significant but, in some ways, not entirely unexpected. What was surprising was seeing such a large repricing in a single day following economic data that does not ordinarily generate this kind of market reaction. At this point, a move in the 2-year Treasury yield to 5% would not seem particularly far-fetched, but then again, I have been writing about that prospect for many weeks. The Dollar Index also rose sharply, breaking above resistance at 100.50 and potentially setting up a move toward the 101.80 to 102 region. The stronger Dollar makes sense amid rising rates, stronger economic data, and markets increasingly pricing in the possibility of additional Fed rate hikes. If the Dollar continues to strengthen, it could become another important source of tightening in financial conditions, particularly alongside higher Treasury yields and widening credit spreads. But whether a stronger Dollar ultimately translates into tighter financial conditions will depend in part on what happens in cross-currency basis swaps. So far, we have not seen signs that the Dollar’s recent strength is transmitting through the cross-currency basis, but that will be important to watch if financial conditions continue to tighten. I came across an interesting chart yesterday: The Business Roundtable CEO Economic Outlook Index ticked higher in Q3 2026. It was the fifth straight quarter of improving sentiment among the U.S.’s corporate CEOs about business conditions over the next six months. The Index was derived from survey responses from 174 CEOs. We have seen K-shaped indicators a lot this year, where economic states in society or industries diverge in opposite directions. Notably, the CNN Fear & Greed Index, which gauges investor sentiment, has struggled to remain positive for most of 2026. Similarly, the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index has been in bearish territory for nearly half the year. Meanwhile, the stock market continues to defy gravity, Retail Sales remain surprisingly robust, the employment numbers routinely surprise to the upside. And now we have evidence that CEOs are feeling confident about capital spending, sales and employment with expectations for additional hiring. You have to wonder whether bond yields hitting 5.10% will act as a headwind going forward. TBD. The S&P traded the whole of my buy range for a now 7717 average long position. I will leave my 7689 ‘Closing Stop’ unchanged while lowering my T/P level to 7730. This morning the S&P hit a low at 7665 helping the market to fill some of Monday’s gap higher. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
EUR/USD
Wrong! The stronger Dollar saw the Euro hit my 1.1395 stop on my 1.1500 average long position. This move lower saw the Euro’s 14 Day RSI close at a severely oversold print of 26 last night. As a result, I have bought the Euro here this morning at 1.1385 with a 1.1470 T/P level. I will add to this position at 1.1305 while my ‘Closing Stop’ will be at a price of 1.1245. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members
Dollar Index
I am still flat. With the Dollar trading higher at a price of 101.12 this morning, the market is now overbought. The Dollar has strong resistance from 101.30/102.10 where I will be a seller with a 102.75 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 100.60. I no longer want to be long the Euro at this time.
Russell 2000
The Russell got hit hard yesterday, hitting my buy range for a now 2850 long position. I will add to this position at 2780 with a now lower 2725 ‘Closing Stop’. I will now lower my T/P level to 2900. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
FTSE 100
Higher Gilt Yields saw the FTSE hit my 10700-buy level. I will now add to this position at 10620 while leaving my 10555 ‘Closing Stop’ unchanged. I will now lower my T/P level to 10740 and reassess if triggered. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Dow Rolling Contract
The Dow closed 350 points lower on Wednesday. The sell-off continued overnight with the market trading the whole of my buy range for a now 31555 average long position. I will leave my 31195 ‘Closing Stop’ unchanged while lowering my T/P level to 31600 as I now have too much long exposure to the equity markets. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Cash NASDAQ 100
Higher Treasury Yields saw the NDX hit my 30230-buy level overnight. I will add to this position at 30030 while leaving my 29895 ‘Closing Stop’ unchanged. To reduce risk, I will now lower my T/P level on this position to 30380. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
December BUND
The Bund got hit hard on Wednesday, trading the whole of my buy range for a now 120.40 average long position. I will leave my 119.45 ‘Closing Stop’ unchanged while lowering my T/P level to 120.90. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Gold Rolling Contract
The stronger Dollar weighed on Precious Metals on Wednesday. As a result, Gold traded lower to my 4280-buy level. To reduce risk, I exited this position at 4288 especially as my Silver buy level hit at the same time. I am still flat. Gold has support below from 4170/4240 where I will again be a buyer with a lower 4075 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 4298.
Silver Rolling Contract
Silver sold off to my 64.60 buy level. I will add to this position at 62.00 while leaving my 59.95 ‘Closing Stop’ unchanged. In my opinion Silver is close to a meaningful bottom having fallen over 50% since the January highs. I will now lower my T/P level on this position to 66.10. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
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