U.S. Indexes closed higher on Friday, with tech names putting Thursday’s Financial Times article on Open AI in the rearview. Real Estate, Consumer Discretionary, and Healthcare outperformed, meanwhile, Communications underperformed following SpaceX competition concerns for Verizon (VZ -8.6%) and T-Mobile (TMUS -13.3%). Crude prices settled in the green, however shortly after saw pressure on US President Trump announcing successful talks with Russian President Putin which led to US Treasury allowing Russia to sell diesel to the US, albeit quantities for the time being appear insignificant in comparison to US/global diesel consumption. Re. geopolitics, Iran’s IRGC warned vessels violating restrictions will be pursued and punished beyond the Strait of Hormuz while the Houhtis have reportedly placed mines in the Bab al-Mandab area. In FX, the Dollar Index was a touch firmer, thanks to the rise in short-term yields; the Australian Dollar outperformed whilst the Canadian Dollar was hit following a disappointing jobs report that saw negative employment growth, leading to reduced October rate hike bets for the Bank of Canada. On the US data footing, the preliminary University of Michigan for October largely underwhelmed, although expectations topped forecasts. Despite the flattening of the Treasury curve on the short-end and belly (long flat), precious gained on the risk-on mood, leaving Spot Gold +USD 51/oz on the week. The University of Michigan prelim figures for October were mixed but largely disappointing. Sentiment fell to 46.3 from 48.1, and beneath the forecasted 47.5, while conditions tumbled to 44.7 from 50.9, also shy of the expected 50.5. Expectations unexpectedly rose to 47.3 from 46.3, with Wall Street consensus expecting a decline to 45.9. 1-Year inflation expectations ticked up to 4.7% (prev. 4.6%), albeit not as hot as the expected 4.8%, while the 5-Year lifted to 3.5% from 3.4%, as expected. Overall, sentiment dropped for the third consecutive month, with Oxford Economics writing that elevated gas prices and higher borrowing costs are making consumers more worried about current economic conditions. Attention now turns to this week’s US inflation reports, which will help shape expectations for the Fed’s next policy move. The probability of an October rate hike has fallen considerably following softer-than-expected August core PCE, weak September NFP data and recent commentary from Fed officials, including Williams, Jefferson, Bowman and Waller, suggesting there is little urgency to deliver consecutive rate hikes following September’s move. Fed Chair Warsh is also scheduled to speak at the IMF in Bangkok the day after the US CPI report, with participants looking for his assessment of the recent data and implications for the policy outlook. However, given Warsh’s previously expressed reluctance towards explicit forward guidance, he may avoid signalling a definitive policy path. Elsewhere, both Oil and Gold closed Friday with gains of 0.5% and 1.5% respectively.
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For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 830 points on Friday and is now ahead by 2223 points for October after ending September with a nice gain of 7767 points, after ending the month of August with a gain of 2645 points after closing July with a gain of 8031 points, after ending June with a new record of 10527 points after ending May with a loss of 1104 points, having ended April with a gain of 1730 points, after ending March with a massive gain of 9002 points, having closed February with a strong gain of 5482 points after ending January with a gain of 4757 points, having closed December with a gain of 2599 points, after ending the month of November with a gain of 4542 points, after ending October with a nice gain of 5110 points after closing September with a gain of 3774 points while ending August with a gain of 3362 points after closing July with a gain of 3753 points after closing June with a gain of 3530 points, having closed May with a gain of 3606 points, after closing April with a gain of 7685 points after closing March with a gain of 2254 points while closing February with a gain of 4180 points. January ended with a gain of 2768 points while 1997 points were gained in December. October ended with a gain of 2179 points, after closing September with a gain of 4402 points, following a loss of 301 points in August. July gained 1908 points while June saw a gain of 2074 points. The Platinum Service made a previous record 9619 points in October 2022. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 2300 points. I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking HERE Please subscribe to this for new interview notification
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