U.S. Indexes closed mixed on Friday with the NASDAQ 100 underperforming. Weakness in technology stocks continued following earnings, while the S&P 500 was broadly flat. Intel (INTC) reversed its initial post-earnings gains as elevated CapEx weighed on the stock and broader semiconductor space. However, underlying breadth was considerably more constructive, with the Russell 2000 and Dow gaining, while the equal-weight S&P outperformed. Crude prices pared some of the sharp gains seen throughout the week, with Brent falling sub USD 97.00/ Barrel after reaching USD 102/Barrel on Thursday. The weakness appeared to reflect some position squaring ahead of the weekend rather than a meaningful improvement in the geopolitical backdrop. There were several reports of note but in late trade President Trump stated he has not yet made up his mind on whether or not to conduct massive strikes on Iran, noting he always prefers to settle things diplomatically. He also noted that the US and Iran are talking, and he sees them as the most serious they have ever been. Treasuries rose across the curve as the sharp pullback in crude helped unwind some of the pronounced selling seen earlier in the week. The belly outperformed, while moves were more modest at the long end. Economic data was encouraging but had little lasting impact. The S&P Global Flash Composite PMI beat, driven by stronger services activity, although manufacturing unexpectedly eased. The report suggested GDP is growing at around a 2.0% annualised pace but also warned of intensifying supply-chain delays and renewed price pressures. In FX, moves were relatively contained, with the Dollar Index little changed. Antipodeans outperformed despite the mixed equity performance, with NZD leading the gains and AUD also firmer, while CAD lagged as crude prices tumbled. The Yen was broadly unchanged following Nikkei reports suggesting the Bank of Japan is set to hold rates next week, despite some policymakers calling for further tightening following June’s hike. Gold rose modestly despite the relatively steady Dollar, likely finding some support from lower Treasury yields. Attention now turns to developments in the Middle East over the weekend before focus shifts to this week’s FOMC decision and Fed Chair Warsh’s press conference. A hold remains the base case, although markets continue to price some risk of a hike following the recent surge in energy prices. The BoJ and June US PCE inflation report will also be key events this week. The US Composite PMI rose to 53.6 in July (exp. 52.3, prev. 51.9), an eight-month high, as a sharp improvement in services offset softer manufacturing activity. The Services PMI increased to 53.6 (exp. 51.0, prev. 51.2), also an eight-month high, while the Manufacturing PMI edged down to 53.8 (exp. 54.5, prev. 53.9), with manufacturing output growth slowing to a four-month low. S&P Global said the survey is consistent with annualised GDP growth of around 2.0%, compared with the 1.2% pace signalled for Q2, while employment increased for the first time in three months. However, inflationary signals were concerning, with input cost inflation reaching a 14-month high and selling price inflation accelerating to its strongest since August 2022, while supplier delivery times deteriorated by the most since August 2022 amid disruption around the Strait of Hormuz. S&P Global cautioned that recent developments in the Middle East could exacerbate supply-chain and price pressures and increase downside risks to the near-term economic outlook, suggesting July’s improvement may not mark the start of a sustained acceleration in growth. US New Home Sales rose 1.6% in June to 628k, above the expected 609k. Supply was 9.3 months at the current sales rate, vs. May’s 9.4 months worth. The median sales price of new houses sold was USD 398,300, -3.3% M/M. Oxford Economics note that new home sales were a touch stronger than they expected, and past months were revised higher, but the broader picture is still mostly one of stability rather than improvement. The hit to households’ real incomes and a renewed rise in mortgage rates will keep housing market activity soft. Elsewhere, Oil closed lower by 3% while Gold recovered some of Thursday’s losses with a 0.70% gain.
To mark my 3400th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2-Year Rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day to demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 130 points on Friday and is now ahead by 6036 points for July after ending June with a new record of 10527 points after ending May with a loss of 1104 points, having ended April with a gain of 1730 points, after ending March with a massive gain of 9002 points, having closed February with a strong gain of 5482 points after ending January with a gain of 4757 points, having closed December with a gain of 2599 points, after ending the month of November with a gain of 4542 points, after ending October with a nice gain of 5110 points after closing September with a gain of 3774 points while ending August with a gain of 3362 points after closing July with a gain of 3753 points after closing June with a gain of 3530 points, having closed May with a gain of 3606 points, after closing April with a gain of 7685 points after closing March with a gain of 2254 points while closing February with a gain of 4180 points. January ended with a gain of 2768 points while 1997 points were gained in December. October ended with a gain of 2179 points, after closing September with a gain of 4402 points, following a loss of 301 points in August. July gained 1908 points while June saw a gain of 2074 points. The Platinum Service made a previous record 9619 points in October 2022. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 2300 points. I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking HERE Please subscribe to this for new interview notification
Equities
The S&P 500 closed 0.05% higher at a price of 7411.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 235 points higher for a 0.46% gain at a price of 51,947.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 1.15% lower at a price of 28,128.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 0.82% higher.
This Morning, the MSCI Asia Pacific closed 0.6% higher.
This Morning, the Nikkei closed 0.41% higher at 64,868.
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.02% higher.
The Euro closed 0.11% lower at $1.1367.
The British Pound closed 0.23% lower at $1.3323.
The Japanese Yen fell 0.31% closing at $163.83.
Bonds
U.K.’s 10-Year Gilt closed 2 basis points lower at 5.03%.
Germany’s 10-Year Bund Yield closed 1 basis points lower at 3.18%
U.S.10 Year Treasury closed 2 basis points lower at 4.68%.
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude closed 3.12% lower at $89.31 a barrel.
Gold closed 0.71% higher at $4052.10 an ounce.
Today on the Economic front we have German IFO Survey at 9.00 am and Euro-Zone Money Supply at 10.00 am. This is followed by U.S. Durable Goods Orders at 1.30 pm and the Dallas Fed Manufacturing Business Index at 3.30 pm. Finally, we have both a Two and Five -Treasury Auction at 6.00 pm.
Cash S&P 500
This will be one of the busiest weeks of the year, with a significant amount of liquidity drained from the financial system. On July 28, T-bill settlements will total $70.5 billion, followed by $38.5 billion on July 30 and another $11.6 billion on July 31. In total, roughly $120 billion of Treasury settlements will take place over the three days, with the majority consisting of T-bills. T-bill settlements continue to weigh on the S&P 500. Since tracking began, only 45.7% of T-bill settlement days have been positive for the Index, and the average return on those days has been a decline of approximately 0.23%. Treasury bill issuance will continue to build even after this week, and liquidity will continue to be drained from the financial system through September. While the weekly pace of the drain should begin to diminish, there will still be substantial bill issuance between now and the September tax payment date. Additionally, single-stock volatility, as measured by the VIXEQ, should continue to decline once the bulk of earnings season is behind us on Thursday afternoon. It fell sharply this past week following Alphabet’s and Tesla’s earnings reports, but it still has considerable room to move lower from current levels. Companies that have already reported earnings have seen their implied volatilities decline materially, while those yet to report continue to show elevated IVs ahead of their earnings announcements. The spread between dispersion and implied correlation remains exceptionally wide. That gap is likely to begin narrowing as more companies report earnings, with the adjustment likely to accelerate following the results from Microsoft and Meta on July 29, and from Apple and Amazon on July 30. Historically, this spread has been highly correlated with the S&P 500. As a result, periods when the spread narrows have generally coincided with weaker performance in the Index. The Fed meets Wednesday, and Fed Funds Futures and overnight index swaps expect no change in policy. Swaps price about a 42% chance of a hike, but with little new data before the meeting, the next chance for a hike looks like September, with possibly another one or two after that. Looking around the market, though, it is pricing in more action down the road. The 3-month Treasury bill has risen about 25 basis points off its year-start low, and its 12-month forward rate is pricing in another 50 basis points above that level. That implies as many as three rate hikes over the next 12 months, with the bill’s rise as the first and the forward carrying the other two. Real yields have risen sharply as well, with the 5-year real rate around 2.16% and the 10-year at 2.40%. The telling part is that the 5-year breakeven, around 2.24%, has not moved up despite oil surging from around $70 a barrel to $89 since the beginning of July. Breakevens rose on the first oil spike, but not this time. That could be because the market is pricing in a Fed that actually responds, tightening financial conditions itself in expectation of the hikes. The same thing shows up in the Dollar, which has strengthened significantly against the Japanese Yen, Euro, and Sterling. The Euro looks to have formed a bear flag, while the yen has broken out to levels not seen in decades. Beyond the 164 region, there is little resistance until 180 or even 200, and purely on the technicals, an inverse head and shoulders breaking its neckline would point toward 260, though that is a big question. Meanwhile, the market has not a single Bank of Japan hike priced in, while the Bank of Korea already raised rates on July 15 and is expected to reach roughly 3% in August with another hike in November. The Korean Won has been strengthening meaningfully as a result. The Fed is likely to be more aggressive than the ECB, the BOE, and the BOJ, but less aggressive than the Bank of Korea. It is starting to show up, very mildly, in credit. The AAA option-adjusted spread has widened back to March levels, and while high-yield spreads have not widened yet, I would expect them to if AAA spreads continue to move. HYG and LQD have not been performing well either. Nothing major is brewing yet, but widening corporate spreads are another sign of conditions tightening, even if the weekly, lagging NFCI does not show it. For risk assets, rising real yields, a stronger Dollar, and tighter conditions are probably not a good mix. Gold has been coming down fairly hard and has not closed meaningfully above its 20-day moving average, with momentum lower and support not far below. Silver looks similar, and Bitcoin failed at resistance, so a break lower in its momentum readings could signal a shift as well. In equities, the NASDAQ 100 closed below a prior intraday low that could mark the neckline of a consolidation pattern, suggesting a further break lower. The SMH is in a downtrend, and its volatility index is no longer rising with price; the deviation suggests a return to the normal regime of vol up, prices down rather than the vol-up, spot-up, gamma-squeeze dynamic. The strengthening won matters here too, since Samsung and SK Hynix benefit when the Won weakens; the SMH and KOSPI have both benefited from a weaker Won since the summer of 2025, and if the Won was part of a carry trade on the semis, its unwind would be another headwind. The S&P 500 tried to break out and is coming back down through a diamond pattern, back below its 10-day exponential moving average, though there is still a lot of support just below that would need to break first. If real yields keep moving up, markets can continue to struggle. And if the market keeps pricing in as many as three hikes from a Fed that is giving less forward guidance, a momentum shift may be taking place beneath the surface, where the trades that have been working unwind while beaten-up stocks begin to rebound. My S&P plan did not work out well on Thursday as after the market traded the whole of my buy range for a 7435 average long position before stopping myself out of this trade at 7401 and I am now flat. I should have known that TACO would resurface. This happened over the weekend as the U.S. has not bombed Iran for the last three nights leading to a 70 Handle rally in the S&P overnight with the market sitting at 7481 as I go to post. This move higher sees the S&P trading above its 50-Day Moving Average and leaving a large gap to Friday’s 7411 Chicago close. The S&P has short-term resistance from 7505/7530 where I will be a seller with a 7551 ‘Closing Stop’. The S&P will have support below at Friday’s close. Therefore, I will be an aggressive buyer from 7400/7425 with a 7379 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 7482. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 7448.
EUR/USD
I am still long the Euro from last at a price of 1.1410. I will add to this position at 1.1340 while leaving my 1.1275 ‘Closing Stop’ unchanged. I will now lower my T/P level to 1.1445. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Dollar Index
The Dollar never came close to Thursday’s buy range and I am still flat. Today, I will raise my buy level to 100.00/100.80 with a higher 99.35 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 101.40.
Russell 2000
The Russell finally sold off to my 2950 T/P level on my latest 2990 short position and I am now flat. Today, I will again be a seller from 2990/3050 with the same 3195 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 2945. I still do not want to be long the Russell at this time.
FTSE 100
The FTSE never came close to Thursday’s sell range and I am still flat. With Gilt Yields ending the week above 5% it is hard to justify being a buyer of the FTSE at these levels which are close to all-time highs. Today, I will lower my sell level to 10800/10880 with a lower 10965 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 10710. I no longer want to be long the FTSE at this time.
Dow Rolling Contract
Weaker earnings saw the Dow trade lower over the past two trading sessions and I am still flat. Today, I will lower my sell level to 52600/52900 with a lower 53105 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 52340. I still do not want to be long the Dow at this time.
Cash NASDAQ 100
The NDX has fallen a huge 1000 points since Thursday’s Daily Commentary was posted. This move lower saw NDX hit my 28100-buy level as emailed to my Platinum Members before rallying to my 28362 T/P level and I am now flat. However, the NDX has followed the S&P higher overnight, trading at a price of 28565 as I go to post. The NDX has short-term support from 27700/27900 where I will be a buyer with a 27495 wider ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 28150. The NDX has short-term resistance from 28800/29000 where I will be a small seller with a 29205 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 28580.
December BUND
My Bund plan worked well as higher Treasury Yields saw the Bund hit my 124.05 buy level before rallying to my revised 124.48 T/P level on Friday and I am now flat. Today, I will again be a strong buyer on any further move lower to 123.30/124.00 with a lower 122.65 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 124.70.
Gold Rolling Contract
I am still flat. Gold has support below from 3890/3980 where I will continue to be a buyer with the same 3795 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 4050.
Silver Rolling Contract
My Silver plan worked well. The market sold off to my 57.50 buy level before rallying to my revised 58.75 T/P level and I am now flat. Silver has support below from 54.50/57.50 where I will be a strong buyer with the same 52.95 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 59.30.
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