U.S. Indexes closed lower as risk tone soured, with Technology the clear sectoral laggard as AI-infrastructure exposed names were hit hard after the Wall Street Journal reported that OpenAI missed targets, which stoked data centre spending concerns. Overall, sectors closed mixed, with Energy the clear gainer, followed by Consumer Staples, as the former was supported by strength in crude benchmarks, given that the lack of progress between the US and Iran outweighed the UAE exiting OPEC and OPEC+. In addition, benchmarks saw further pressure as President Trump said Iran has informed them they are in a “State of Collapse”, and want them to “Open the Hormuz Strait”, ASAP. The Dollar Index was firmer, with CHF, CAD, and NZD underperforming with AUD and EUR the relative outperformers, albeit still lower against the Dollar. The Japanese Yen ended the day lower, but only told half the story, as it initially gained as the Bank of Japan kept policy rate unchanged, as expected, but in a 6-3 hawkish vote split, and then the Yen retreated as Ueda was non-committal regarding the timing of the next hike. Precious metals were lower, and Treasuries sold off across the curve, with front-end underperformance as yields rose on the back of firmer oil prices. Ahead, the calendar for the rest of the week is packed with risk events, as Wednesday’s highlights include FOMC, the following Chair Powell’s press conference. 4 of the Mag-7 reporting (AMZN, META, GOOGL, MSFT). Consumer Confidence rose to 92.8 from 92.2 despite expectations for a decline to 89.5. The increase was supported by the Expectations Index rising 1.2 points to 72.2 and consumers’ perceptions of the labour market, both current and expected, as well as income expectations being slightly more optimistic in April, said Chief Economist Peterson at the Conference Board. The Present Situation Index fell 0.3 points to 123.8 amid net views of current business conditions dropping 1.8 ppts to +4.1%. The report noted that the two-week ceasefire announcement and a rebound in stock market Indices within the survey-sample period (April 1–22) likely helped ease concerns about financial indicators somewhat in April after spiking in March. Still, consumers remained wary. This likely contributed towards the downticks in Consumers’ average and median 12-month inflation expectations, but which continued to be elevated. The percentage of consumers saying interest rates over the next 12 months will be higher on net rose to nearly 50%. Elsewhere, Oil closed higher by 4% while Gold ended Tuesday’s session with a 2% fall.
To mark my 3350th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2-Year Rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day to demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it was made 100 points yesterday and is now ahead by 1730 points for April after ending March with a massive gain of 9002 points, having closed February with a strong gain of 5482 points after ending January with a gain of 4757 points, having closed December with a gain of 2599 points, after ending the month of November with a gain of 4542 points, after ending October with a nice gain of 5110 points after closing September with a gain of 3774 points while ending August with a gain of 3362 points after closing July with a gain of 3753 points after closing June with a gain of 3530 points, having closed May with a gain of 3606 points, after closing April with a gain of 7685 points after closing March with a gain of 2254 points while closing February with a gain of 4180 points. January ended with a gain of 2768 points while 1997 points were gained in December. October ended with a gain of 2179 points, after closing September with a gain of 4402 points, following a loss of 301 points in August. July gained 1908 points while June saw a gain of 2074 points. The Platinum Service made a record 9619 points in October 2022. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 2300 points. I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking HERE Please subscribe to this for new interview notification
Equities
The S&P 500 closed 0.49% lower at a price of 7138.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 31 points lower for a 0.06% loss at a price of 49,136.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 1.01% lower at a price of 27,029.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 0.37% lower.
This Morning, the MSCI Asia Pacific closed 0.3% higher.
This Morning, the Nikkei closed 1.02% lower at a price of 59,917.
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.17% higher.
The Euro closed 0.15% lower at $1.1707.
The British Pound closed 0.17% lower at $1.3510.
The Japanese Yen fell 0.09% closing at $159.57.
Bonds
U.K.’s 10-Year Gilt closed 1 basis points higher at 5.02%.
Germany’s 10-Year Bund Yield closed 2 basis points higher at 3.05%
U.S.10 Year Treasury closed 2 basis points higher at 4.36%.
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude closed 3.88% higher at $100.10 a barrel.
Gold closed 1.86% lower at $4595.10 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front we have the Euro-Zone Money Supply at 9.00 am and Consumer Confidence at 10.00 am. Next, we have German CPI at 1.00 pm, followed by U.S. Durable Goods Orders, Housing Starts, Building Permits, Wholesale Inventories and the Trade Balance at 1.30 pm. Next, we have the Bank of Canada Rate Announcement at 2.45 pm. This is followed by the FOMC Statement at 7.00 pm and Fed Chair Powell’s Press Conference at 7.30 pm. Finally, after the close 4 of the Mag-7 stocks are reporting (AMZN, META, GOOGL, MSFT).
Cash S&P 500
There is something not right about these markets. No, it is not the refusal to drop when the Economy is clearly heading for trouble given the weakness of the global economic data reported over the past few months. According to ‘’The Dollar Crisis by Duncan’’ which is one of the best economic books you will ever read, governments have the power to postpone the day of reckoning for weeks, months or even years which is exactly what is happening since the COVID Crash of 2020. What really bothers me is that it is fairly obvious that a bunch of insiders are getting advance notice of some of the Trump Administration decisions affecting the war and are able to profit to the tune of hundreds of millions of Dollars time and time again. I think that Trump has figured out a way to keep the market from dropping every time he whispers about a potential deal to end the war. The problem is people still fall for this trick and I am wondering how long the market will continue to fall for it. The truth of the matter is more companies are either laying off people or going out of business. Yet we are told the U.S. is the best economy on the planet. That much is probably true for now with the U.S. likely to only have a recession while Europe enters a depression. I do not say these words lightly but the underperformance of the European Markets over the past month is concerning especially with the aggressive sell off in UK Gilts which is another major warning sign in my opinion. As I mentioned above, governments have done a good job in keeping equity markets elevated since the 2020 crisis but this cannot go on forever. With private credit firms facing heavy redemption calls in an environment where margin debt is at all-time highs this will not end well. Stocks are now more overvalued than in the 1929 crash as valuations and PE’s hit the highest level in history. With oil prices back above $100 it is hard to justify a long position in the market. For once I would like to see the Iranian Government confirm one of Trump’s statements which is adding more and more to my concerns that this market is close to a meaningful sell-off and possible CRASH. I am still short the S&P at an average rate of 7097 with the same 7070 T/P level. I will continue to have no stop on this position. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
EUR/USD
I am still flat as the Euro again traded in a narrow range on Tuesday. Today, I will leave my levels unchanged: The Euro has short-term support below from 1.1580/1.1660 where I will be a small buyer with a 1.1495 ‘Closing Stop’. I will now lower my sell level to 1.1790/1.1860 with a lower 1.1935 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 1.1730. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 1.1730.
Dollar Index
No Change: The Dollar has support below from 97.40/98.20 where I will again be a buyer with a lower 96.85 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 98.80. I still do not want to be short the Dollar at this time.
Russell 2000
No Change: I am still short the Russell at an average rate of 2725 from last week. To reduce risk, I will raise my T/P level to 2715 while leaving 2795 ‘Closing Stop’ also unchanged. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
FTSE 100
The FTSE traded in a narrow range on Tuesday and I am still flat. Today, I will continue to be a buyer on any further dip lower to 10180/10260 with the same 10095 ‘Closing Stop’ unchanged. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 10330. Despite the higher Gilt Yields I still do not want to be short the FTSE at this time.
Dow Rolling Contract
The Dow never came close to Tuesday’s buy range and I am still flat. The Dow continues to underperform both the NDX and S&P making it difficult to be short as the market can always play catchup at any stage. The Dow has short-term support from 48350/48650 where I will continue to be a buyer with the same 48195 tight ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 48940.
Cash NASDAQ 100
The NDX got hit hard for most of yesterday before having a small rally in the last hour of trading that has continued overnight. Tuesday’s sell-off saw the market hit my revised 26910 revised T/P level on my latest 27010 average short position. Subsequently I emailed my Platinum Members to sell the market on any further rally and I am now short here at a price of 27180. I will add to this position at 27430 with a higher 27605 ‘Closing Stop’. I am expecting the NDX to have plenty of two-way volatility following the earnings releases from AMZN, META, GOOGL, MSFT after the close. I will have a T/P level on this short position at 26920. If any of the above levels are triggered, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
December BUND
The Bund again traded in a narrow range again on Tuesday and I am still flat. The Bund has short-term support below from 124.20/125.00 where I will be a small buyer with a lower 123.55 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 125.75.
Gold Rolling Contract
I am still flat. The bottom of the Bollinger Band comes in at a price of 4362 this morning. Today, I will continue to be a buyer from 4330/4430 while leaving my 4195 wider ‘Closing Stop’ unchanged. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 4540. If this view changes, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Silver Rolling Contract
I am still flat. As I mentioned in yesterday’s Daily Commentary, I am still expecting a further sell-off in precious metals before a more meaningful rally commences. Today, I will continue to be a buyer on any further dip lower to 68.50/71.50 with the same 66.95 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 74.20. I still do not want to be short Silver at this time.
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