U.S. Indexes saw modest pressure on Monday amid relatively quiet newsflow, with the Russell 2000 leading the downside while the equal-weight S&P 500 (RSP) finished little changed, pointing to relatively flat underlying breadth. On a sector basis, Energy heavily outperformed as crude prices climbed, while Real Estate, Utilities and Technology lagged. The gains in oil largely reflected continued geopolitical uncertainty in the Middle East. The situation surrounding the Strait of Hormuz remains fluid, with repeated suggestions that progress is being made but little concrete evidence of a breakthrough. President Trump said the US is only “semi-negotiating” with Iran, while Iran’s Supreme National Security Council issued six demands for reopening Hormuz, including full compensation, sanctions relief, the release of frozen assets, an end to the blockade and the withdrawal of US forces from the region. Trump, however, said the US also wants compensation from Iran for damages, potentially complicating negotiations further. Elsewhere in the Gulf, Saudi Arabia extinguished a fire at its Jazan facility early on Sunday, while Yemen’s Houthis claimed responsibility for the attack. Treasury yields rose across the curve alongside higher oil prices, retracing a chunk of Friday’s post-NFP decline as renewed energy-price pressures lifted inflation concerns. Markets continue to see a September rate hike as roughly a coin toss, leaving Wednesday’s CPI report as the next major catalyst for Fed expectations. Fed Member Hammack (2026 voter, hawkish dissenter) added to the hawkish backdrop, suggesting more than one rate hike may be required and arguing that action should be taken sooner rather than later, while maintaining that the economy remains around full employment. Despite higher Treasury yields and a firmer Dollar, precious metals rallied, with Gold testing USD 4,400/oz to the upside. The resilience despite typically unfavourable moves in rates and FX suggests continued demand for precious metals amid elevated geopolitical uncertainty. In FX, the Pound and Dollar outperformed, while the Japanese Yen was the clear laggard despite a series of hawkish domestic developments, including source reports suggesting a September Bank of Japan rate hike is increasingly likely, further official jawboning and a hawkish-leaning BoJ Summary of Opinion. Elsewhere, Oil surged 5% while Gold ended Monday’s session with a 1.2% rise.
To mark my 3425th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2-Year Rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day to demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 210 points yesterday and is now ahead by 230 points for August after closing July with a gain of 8031 points, after ending June with a new record of 10527 points after ending May with a loss of 1104 points, having ended April with a gain of 1730 points, after ending March with a massive gain of 9002 points, having closed February with a strong gain of 5482 points after ending January with a gain of 4757 points, having closed December with a gain of 2599 points, after ending the month of November with a gain of 4542 points, after ending October with a nice gain of 5110 points after closing September with a gain of 3774 points while ending August with a gain of 3362 points after closing July with a gain of 3753 points after closing June with a gain of 3530 points, having closed May with a gain of 3606 points, after closing April with a gain of 7685 points after closing March with a gain of 2254 points while closing February with a gain of 4180 points. January ended with a gain of 2768 points while 1997 points were gained in December. October ended with a gain of 2179 points, after closing September with a gain of 4402 points, following a loss of 301 points in August. July gained 1908 points while June saw a gain of 2074 points. The Platinum Service made a previous record 9619 points in October 2022. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 2300 points. I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking HERE Please subscribe to this for new interview notification
Equities
The S&P 500 closed 0.03% lower at a price of 7753.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 60 points lower for a 0.11% loss at a price of 53,975.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 0.34% lower at a price of 29,621.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 0.03% higher.
Yesterday, the MSCI Asia Pacific closed 0.8% higher.
Yesterday, the Nikkei closed 2.08% higher at 66,970.
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.28% higher.
The Euro closed 0.13% lower at $1.1542.
The British Pound closed 0.07% higher at $1.3507.
The Japanese Yen fell 1.01% closing at $159.30.
Bonds
U.K.’s 10-Year Gilt closed 7 basis points higher at 5.00%.
Germany’s 10-Year Bund Yield closed 5 basis points higher at 3.18%
U.S.10 Year Treasury closed 6 basis points higher at 4.71%.
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude closed 4.90% higher at $82.01 a barrel.
Gold closed 1.2% higher at $4394.10 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic front we have no data of note from either the U.K. or the Euro-Zone. At 11.00 am we have U.S. NFIB Small Business Optimism Index and the ADP Weekly Employment Change at 1.15 pm. At 3.00 pm we have Existing Home Sales. Finally, we have a Three-Year Treasury Auction at 6.00 pm.
Cash S&P 500
The broader market is now approaching dangerous territory. On the daily chart of the “% of Stock Above their 200-day Moving Average, currently 53% of stocks are above that moving average. This is now within the “resistance zone”. Last August-October this resistance zone sent the broader market lower until late November (after peaking in mid-September). I believe a similar scenario is likely to unfold now and in the coming weeks, especially due to the fact that it is a mid-term election year, which is historically the weakest in August and September. What is more negative is that this is the time when banks clean up their loan portfolios and get rid of questionable loans. That in effect is “tightening of liquidity,” often leading to a market decline. Looking at the most influential stocks (heaviest weighted), the longer-term weekly chart of the Mag 7 ETF (MAGS) had a good rally last week on its 3rd highest volume since the April 2025 low. Remember, these stocks make up roughly 40% of the S&P 500’s Market Cap. Many investors think the rally in the MAG7 is bullish for the market. I have the opposite view because such a small group of stocks are easy to manipulate higher, which then gives the illusion of “market strength.” This could be the setting of another bull trap in my view. The challenge for the rally will be resistance in the 71 area (closed at 69.14 on Friday). That will be a “make or break” level for the MAGS. In case of an upside breakout, the question will then be whether that will be a sustainable breakout. I would have our doubts, primarily due to bearish seasonality. I believe the risk is just too high to be in the AI and tech sectors (and stocks) at this time. This is a favorite area for the algos to manipulate big short term plunges and rises. I believe the big opportunities will come when inflation rises to new highs and all related sectors become attractive. We must also consider the potential positive factors for the market that could support a continued rally in the very near term. Looking at the chart below of the National Association of Active Investment Managers (NAAIM) Exposure Index, which shows that managers currently have roughly 80% US Equity exposure. That is relatively average and not near “very bullish” levels seen in late May and late June (when they had over 98% exposure) or the “overly bullish” levels seen late October and late December 2025 (when they had over 100% exposure!) Therefore, this shows managers still have some cash available to put into the market, which would help lift stocks higher in the coming weeks. Of course, it may also show that money managers are becoming more cautious. Additionally, one of the most powerful forces of buying (corporate buybacks) is now accelerating. 75% of the S&P 500 Index’s weighted stocks are now eligible to execute buybacks. By mid-August that will go up to 85%. I believe that will be touted in the media and will ultimately close the bull trap. Of course, I must point out that “eligible” does not mean they will be actually buying their stocks back now. My S&P plan worked well on Monday as after the S&P hit my 7770-sell level the market sold off to my revised 7749 T/P level and I am now flat. Given the extent of last week’s rally, I will continue to sell rips and buy dips against the now critical 7620 previous all-time high support level. Today, I will again be a seller of the S&P from 7768/7793 with the same 7821 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 7740. The S&P will have strong support from 7610/7635 where I will be an aggressive buyer on any tag with a 7589 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 7680.
EUR/USD
The Euro traded in a narrow range over the past 24 hours and I am still flat. Today, I will continue to be a buyer on any dip lower to 1.1400/1.1480 with the same 1.1355 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 1.1550. I still do not want to be short the Euro at this time.
Dollar Index
I am still long from last week at an average price of 100.45 with the same 100.60 T/P level. As I go to post the Dollar is trading at a price of 99.90. I will leave my 99.35 ‘Closing Stop’ unchanged. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Russell 2000
I am still short the Russell at an average price of 3020. I will leave my 3105 ‘Closing Stop’ unchanged while raising my T/P level to 2985. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
FTSE 100
The FTSE continues to trade heavily and I am still flat. The FTSE has short-term resistance from 10930/10030 where I will be a small seller with the same 10125 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 10860. I still do not want to be long the FTSE at this time.
Dow Rolling Contract
I am still flat. The Dow has short-term resistance from 54150/54450 where I will be an aggressive seller with a 54705 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 53780. I no longer want to be a buyer of the Dow at this time. If this view changes, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Cash NASDAQ 100
Frustratingly the NDX missed Monday’s initial 29900 sell level by 30 points before falling almost 300 points and I am still flat. Today, I will lower my sell level to 29850/30100 while leaving my 30305 ‘Closing Stop’ unchanged. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 29620. If this view changes, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
December BUND
The Bund reversed most of last week’s gains following Treasury Yields higher. Today, I will lower my buy level 123.30/124.10 with a lower 122.65 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 124.75. I still do not want to be short the Bund at this time.
Gold Rolling Contract
Both Gold and Silver built on last week’s gains, and I am still flat as the market never came close to my buy range. Today, I will raise my buy level to 4180/4280 with a higher 4065 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 4330.
Silver Rolling Contract
No Change: I will not chase Silver from and will stay flat today to see how the market reacts to last week’s huge run higher. If this view changes, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
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