U.S. Indexes closed at new all-time highs as Markets traded risk-on on Tuesday helped by declining oil prices while there was somewhat of an unwind of the increased geopolitical tensions on Monday. The US stated that the ceasefire with Iran remains in place, despite the Iranian activity towards the UAE yesterday. General Caine noted recent actions remain below the threshold for a resumption of major military operations, helping to ease risk sentiment and weigh on crude. That said, contingency risks remain, with reports suggesting the US and Israel have identified Iranian energy infrastructure targets should hostilities resume, although President Trump signalled he does not favour a return to full-scale conflict. Equities were broadly higher, with gains across all major Indices and sector strength led by Technology and Materials, while the VIX declined. In rates, Treasuries were bid as oil prices fell, with yields lower across the curve, led by the long-end. In FX, price action was volatile. The Japanese Yen lagged without a clear catalyst, while Antipodes outperformed on the risk tone, with the Australian Dollar supported after the RBA delivered a 25 basis points hike alongside a relatively hawkish statement, although Governor Bullock’s “wait-and-see” remarks saw markets pare near-term tightening expectations. On the data front, releases were mixed and largely secondary to geopolitics. JOLTS pointed to a gradual cooling in labour demand, while ISM Services PMI missed expectations with elevated prices and employment still in contraction. Elsewhere, the US trade deficit widened more than expected, and New Home Sales surprised to the upside. ISM Services PMI fell to 53.6 in April from 54.0, a bigger decline than the expected 53.8. Employment rose to 48.0 (exp. 48.3, prev. 45.2), while prices stayed at 70.7, below the forecast of 73.7. Business activity rose to 55.9 (prev. 53.9), but new orders slipped to 53.5 (exp. 57.3, prev. 60.6). Supplier deliveries and new export orders increased M/M, while inventories and backlog of orders declined, though all remained above 50. The report said there were other signs of economic strength, with exports and imports expanding for two straight months for the first time since September/October 2024. Commentary focused mainly on the impact of and adjustments to the Iran war, and the expected flow-through of higher oil prices. Oxford Economics said the slight decline in the headline was consistent with moderate economic growth in the coming quarter, as mentions of fuel surcharges and uncertainty related to the war rose. OxEco expects the economy to hold up but sees some of the energy price shock feeding through to core inflation over the coming quarters, keeping core PCE inflation close to 3% for most of the year. US Job Openings fell to 6.866 million in March from 6.922 million in February, broadly in line with the 6.87 million forecast. The vacancy rate eased to 4.1% from 4.2%, while the quits rate ticked up to 2.0% from 1.9%. Overall, the report points to a still-gradual cooling in labour demand rather than a sharp deterioration. This should be a welcome backdrop for the Fed, allowing it to remain focused on inflation without immediate pressure from the labour side of its mandate. However, risks remain tilted to a softer labour market ahead, with doves placing greater weight on forward-looking indicators. Pantheon Macroeconomics notes that “unofficial indicators suggest labour demand is still fading, perhaps at a faster rate since the conflict in the Middle East began,” citing declines in Indeed and LinkUp job postings. Attention now turns to Friday’s NFP report for a more timely read on labour market conditions after a mixed start to the year, with Pantheon suggesting March strength may prove to be a temporary blip. New Home Sales rose 7.4% to 682k above the expected 668k. Pantheon Macroeconomics notes that the three-month average of new home sales still slipped back in March to its lowest level since late 2022. The seasonally-adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of March 2026 was 481k, -0.4% M/M, -4.6% Y/Y. This represents a supply of 8.5 months at the current sales rate, -6.6% M/M, -7.6% Y/Y. The median sales price of new houses sold in March 2026 was USD 387,400, -5.3% M/M, -6.2% Y/Y. Pantheon says that the weak labour market, depressed confidence, and still high mortgage rates will probably continue to hold back sales in the near term. Elsewhere, Oil closed lower by 4% while Gold ended Tuesday’s session with a 1% fall.
To mark my 3375th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2-Year Rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day to demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it was flat yesterday and is still ahead by 132 points for May having ended April with a gain of 1730 points, after ending March with a massive gain of 9002 points, having closed February with a strong gain of 5482 points after ending January with a gain of 4757 points, having closed December with a gain of 2599 points, after ending the month of November with a gain of 4542 points, after ending October with a nice gain of 5110 points after closing September with a gain of 3774 points while ending August with a gain of 3362 points after closing July with a gain of 3753 points after closing June with a gain of 3530 points, having closed May with a gain of 3606 points, after closing April with a gain of 7685 points after closing March with a gain of 2254 points while closing February with a gain of 4180 points. January ended with a gain of 2768 points while 1997 points were gained in December. October ended with a gain of 2179 points, after closing September with a gain of 4402 points, following a loss of 301 points in August. July gained 1908 points while June saw a gain of 2074 points. The Platinum Service made a record 9619 points in October 2022. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 2300 points. I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking HERE Please subscribe to this for new interview notification
Equities
The S&P 500 closed 1.46% higher at a price of 7365.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 612 points higher for a 1.24% gain at a price of 49,910.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 2.08% higher at a price of 28,599.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 2.22% higher.
This Morning, the MSCI Asia Pacific closed 0.5% higher.
This Morning, the Nikkei closed 5.58% higher at a price of 62,833.
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.42% lower.
The Euro closed 0.48% higher at $1.1749.
The British Pound closed 0.32% higher at $1.3585.
The Japanese Yen rose 0.87% closing at $156.45.
Bonds
U.K.’s 10-Year Gilt closed 12 basis points lower at 4.95%.
Germany’s 10-Year Bund Yield closed 6 basis points lower at 3.00%
U.S.10 Year Treasury closed 5 basis points lower at 4.36%.
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude closed 6.9% lower at $95.21 a barrel.
Gold closed 2.82% higher at $4685.10 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front we already had the release of German Factory Orders which rose 5% versus +1% expected. Next, we have German, Euro-Zone and U.K. Construction PMI at 8.30 am, 8.35 am and 9.30 am respectively. This is followed by U.S. Weekly Jobless Claims and Non-Farm Productivity at 1.30 pm. Finally, we have New York Fed 1-year Consumer Inflation Expectations at 4.00 pm and a speech from Fed Member Williams at 8.00 pm.
Cash S&P 500
Early yesterday morning, Axios reported that the United States and Iran are closing in on a one-page, 14-point memorandum of understanding (MOU) to end the war. The article said Iran was expected to respond on several key points within 48 hours. It also described this as the “closest” the two sides have come to a deal since the war began. This was yet another example of a “peace agreement” rumor that fuelled a market rally, similar to what happened a number of times in late March to early April. As a result, the NASDAQ 100 soared 2%, while S&P 500 and Russell 200 both jumped 1.5% and by the close as all three Indices set new all-time highs. The Dow Jones gained 612 points (+1.2%). Conversely, oil and energy related stocks (and ETFs) pulled back as a knee-jerk reaction of the potential agreement with Iran. WTI Crude oil fell 6.4% to settle around $96.20/bbl. On the topic of “hot” tech stocks, Semiconductors have had record gains over the past month. On of those is Intel (INTC). Remember, the Federal government invested in this stock late last year when it bought 9.9% of the stock in August. On Monday (May 4), President Trump was bragging about the $40 billion unrealised gain in the government’s investment in Intel’s stock. In April alone the stock soared 128% (in one month). Obviously, he would not permit a monetary policy that would risk a bear market. Intel alone is up 176% since the end of March. That INTC rise was total manipulation. Do you think there is any money manager in his right mind who would keep on buying a stock that is up 50%, 70%, 100% in just a few weeks? But the ability for such big manipulations tells us that it is approved by the higher powers. Perhaps Washington should buy 9.9% in 100 leading tech stocks. It could make enough money to balance the budget or eliminate the income tax. It makes me wonder how many millions of dollars have insiders in Washington made last month alone? The 14-Day RSI closed at 76 last night for the S&P and 80 for the NDX. The worry for bears is there are signs we are seeing in the markets similar to what we saw in 1978, the start of a high inflation-high interest period with booming markets and it is obvious that no matter what valuations we have that the Trump Administration will do everything in their power to prevent a crash especially ahead of the Mid-Term Elections in November. More interesting, however, is that the Technology sector has been the only major sector to outperform the S&P 500 over the past 30 days, and by a wide margin — nearly 12.5 percentage points. Every other major sector has lagged the broader market’s returns. The largest holdings in the XLK remain Nvidia, Microsoft, Apple, Broadcom, Micron, and AMD. That creates an increasingly narrow market leadership structure. Either the rest of the market will need to rally significantly over the coming weeks to broaden participation, or there is a reasonable chance the large-cap technology names will begin to correct lower. Wednesday’s move higher saw another large gap left unfilled from 7257 which was Tuesday’s Chicago close to yesterday’s 7294 low print. I am still short (and wrong) the S&P at an average rate of 7097. I will use any short-term sell-off to go flat and reassess. The S&P is having a short squeeze that has gone far higher than I ever envisaged. Once a sell-off commences I will email my Platinum Members when I decide to exit this position.
EUR/USD
The Euro never came close to Wednesday’s buy range and I am still flat. I still believe that the Euro is overvalued and due a more lasting sell-off against the Dollar. The Euro has short-term resistance from 1.1820/1.1890 where I will be a small seller with a 1.1965 ‘Closing Stop’. Meanwhile, I will continue to be a buyer on any further dip lower to 1.1560/1.1640 while leaving my 1.1495 ‘Closing Stop’ unchanged. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 1.1695.
Dollar Index
I am still long from last week at 98.30. I will add to this position at 97.50 while leaving my 96.95 ‘Closing Stop’ unchanged. I will leave my T/P level unchanged at 98.75. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Russell 2000
The Russell made another new all-time high yesterday. This move higher saw my second sell level at 2900 sell level for triggered for a now 2870 average short position. I will now raise my T/P level to 2830 while leaving my 2965 ‘Closing Stop’ unchanged. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
FTSE 100
Lower Gilt Yields saw the FTSE rally almost 2% on Wednesday and I am still flat as the market never came close to my buy range. Today, I will raise my buy level to 10230/10310 with a higher 10145 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 10390. I still do not want to be short the FTSE at this time.
Dow Rolling Contract
The Dow never came close to Wednesday buy range and I am still flat. As I go to post, the Dow is trading over 50,000. Thankfully, we have not had any short Dow position over the past few weeks as we were suspicious of the Dow playing catchup with the rest of the market. Overnight the Nikkei which was closed since Friday rose over 3300 points for a 5.5% gain which is just insane and shows how dangerous it is to be short. Today, I will raise my Dow buy level to 49100/49400 with a higher 48795 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 49750.
Cash NASDAQ 100
Much to my surprise the NDX tagged on further 2% yesterday resulting in the 14-Day RSI closing above 80. I cannot remember the last time that the RSI was this high. This move higher has me short the NDX at an average rate of 28390 with a now higher 28705 ‘Closing Stop’. I will now raise my T/P level to 28100. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
December BUND
The Bund surged yesterday and I am still flat. The Bund has short-term resistance from 126.80/127.50 where I will be a small seller with a 128.15 tight ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 126.10.
Gold Rolling Contract
I am still flat. Today, I will raise my Gold buy level to 4500/4600 with a higher 4375 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 4730. If this view changes, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Silver Rolling Contract
Silver has rallied over 10% this week and I am still flat. Today, I will raise my buy level to 71.00/74.00 with a higher 67.95 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 76.25.
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