U.S. Indexes closed at new all-time highs as Markets traded risk-on on Tuesday helped by declining oil prices while there was somewhat of an unwind of the increased geopolitical tensions on Monday. The US stated that the ceasefire with Iran remains in place, despite the Iranian activity towards the UAE yesterday. General Caine noted recent actions remain below the threshold for a resumption of major military operations, helping to ease risk sentiment and weigh on crude. That said, contingency risks remain, with reports suggesting the US and Israel have identified Iranian energy infrastructure targets should hostilities resume, although President Trump signalled he does not favour a return to full-scale conflict. Equities were broadly higher, with gains across all major Indices and sector strength led by Technology and Materials, while the VIX declined. In rates, Treasuries were bid as oil prices fell, with yields lower across the curve, led by the long-end. In FX, price action was volatile. The Japanese Yen lagged without a clear catalyst, while Antipodes outperformed on the risk tone, with the Australian Dollar supported after the RBA delivered a 25 basis points hike alongside a relatively hawkish statement, although Governor Bullock’s “wait-and-see” remarks saw markets pare near-term tightening expectations. On the data front, releases were mixed and largely secondary to geopolitics. JOLTS pointed to a gradual cooling in labour demand, while ISM Services PMI missed expectations with elevated prices and employment still in contraction. Elsewhere, the US trade deficit widened more than expected, and New Home Sales surprised to the upside. ISM Services PMI fell to 53.6 in April from 54.0, a bigger decline than the expected 53.8. Employment rose to 48.0 (exp. 48.3, prev. 45.2), while prices stayed at 70.7, below the forecast of 73.7. Business activity rose to 55.9 (prev. 53.9), but new orders slipped to 53.5 (exp. 57.3, prev. 60.6). Supplier deliveries and new export orders increased M/M, while inventories and backlog of orders declined, though all remained above 50. The report said there were other signs of economic strength, with exports and imports expanding for two straight months for the first time since September/October 2024. Commentary focused mainly on the impact of and adjustments to the Iran war, and the expected flow-through of higher oil prices. Oxford Economics said the slight decline in the headline was consistent with moderate economic growth in the coming quarter, as mentions of fuel surcharges and uncertainty related to the war rose. OxEco expects the economy to hold up but sees some of the energy price shock feeding through to core inflation over the coming quarters, keeping core PCE inflation close to 3% for most of the year. US Job Openings fell to 6.866 million in March from 6.922 million in February, broadly in line with the 6.87 million forecast. The vacancy rate eased to 4.1% from 4.2%, while the quits rate ticked up to 2.0% from 1.9%. Overall, the report points to a still-gradual cooling in labour demand rather than a sharp deterioration. This should be a welcome backdrop for the Fed, allowing it to remain focused on inflation without immediate pressure from the labour side of its mandate. However, risks remain tilted to a softer labour market ahead, with doves placing greater weight on forward-looking indicators. Pantheon Macroeconomics notes that “unofficial indicators suggest labour demand is still fading, perhaps at a faster rate since the conflict in the Middle East began,” citing declines in Indeed and LinkUp job postings. Attention now turns to Friday’s NFP report for a more timely read on labour market conditions after a mixed start to the year, with Pantheon suggesting March strength may prove to be a temporary blip. New Home Sales rose 7.4% to 682k above the expected 668k. Pantheon Macroeconomics notes that the three-month average of new home sales still slipped back in March to its lowest level since late 2022. The seasonally-adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of March 2026 was 481k, -0.4% M/M, -4.6% Y/Y. This represents a supply of 8.5 months at the current sales rate, -6.6% M/M, -7.6% Y/Y. The median sales price of new houses sold in March 2026 was USD 387,400, -5.3% M/M, -6.2% Y/Y. Pantheon says that the weak labour market, depressed confidence, and still high mortgage rates will probably continue to hold back sales in the near term. Elsewhere, Oil closed lower by 4% while Gold ended Tuesday’s session with a 1% fall.
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For anyone following my Platinum Service it lost 410 points yesterday and is now ahead by 132 points for May having ended April with a gain of 1730 points, after ending March with a massive gain of 9002 points, having closed February with a strong gain of 5482 points after ending January with a gain of 4757 points, having closed December with a gain of 2599 points, after ending the month of November with a gain of 4542 points, after ending October with a nice gain of 5110 points after closing September with a gain of 3774 points while ending August with a gain of 3362 points after closing July with a gain of 3753 points after closing June with a gain of 3530 points, having closed May with a gain of 3606 points, after closing April with a gain of 7685 points after closing March with a gain of 2254 points while closing February with a gain of 4180 points. January ended with a gain of 2768 points while 1997 points were gained in December. October ended with a gain of 2179 points, after closing September with a gain of 4402 points, following a loss of 301 points in August. July gained 1908 points while June saw a gain of 2074 points. The Platinum Service made a record 9619 points in October 2022. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 2300 points. I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking HERE Please subscribe to this for new interview notification
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