U.S. Indexes were largely traversing sideways, consolidating in a range just off all-time highs. Sectors were mixed, though there was decent upside in Consumer Discretionary (ANF and BBWI were standouts). Note, heavyweights Tesla and Amazon did the heavy lifting. Travel and Leisure was supported by lower energy prices. Communications saw strength (META launches Instagram, Facebook, and WhatsApp subscriptions); Energy was the laggard as crude prices dropped, while Financials also underperformed, and Tech was under pressure (QCOM reaffirmed its non-handset revenue target; ZS down 31.5% on disappointing guidance put pressure on software names, particularly cybersecurity). The equity complex was subject to some choppiness amid geopolitical headlines, though it ultimately closed around flat, ahead of key earnings after hours, and ahead of Thursday’s PCE inflation data. Bonds too were uneventful, patrolling a horizontal range; the weekly ADP payrolls rate cooled, while the sale of 5 Year Treasury Notes saw a smaller tail and solid indirect participation. Crude futures, however, saw downside, initially on reports via Iranian state TV, which reported progress in talks after it had seen a draft MoU; analysts noted that while there were a lot of mechanics about the Straits of Hormuz, the update was absent of information on tolls, unfreezing of Iranian funds, uranium enrichment, or even Lebanon. Traders faded the extremes. Later, reports suggested that the White House had pushed back on the reporting from Iran. President Trump hosted his eleventh open Cabinet meeting, and while he stuck to familiar talking points (Iran will never get a nuke, talks are progressing nicely, but he wants a great deal, not just a good deal, including nations joining the Abraham Accords). Trump said Oman will have to behave, or we will have to blow them up. In other news, overnight, Fed’s Kashkari (2026 voter) said it is too early to predict the timing of the next Fed action when asked about market pricing for an October rate hike. He also touched on the growing global inflation concerns weighing on the bond markets. Elsewhere, Oil closed lower by 5.5% while Gold ended Wednesday’s session with a 1% fall. This morning, Futures Markets and Bond Markets are lower while Oil is higher after more bombings by the U.S. in Iran threatening the ongoing ceasefire.
To mark my 3375th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2-Year Rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day to demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 826 points yesterday and is now down by 1104 points for May having ended April with a gain of 1730 points, after ending March with a massive gain of 9002 points, having closed February with a strong gain of 5482 points after ending January with a gain of 4757 points, having closed December with a gain of 2599 points, after ending the month of November with a gain of 4542 points, after ending October with a nice gain of 5110 points after closing September with a gain of 3774 points while ending August with a gain of 3362 points after closing July with a gain of 3753 points after closing June with a gain of 3530 points, having closed May with a gain of 3606 points, after closing April with a gain of 7685 points after closing March with a gain of 2254 points while closing February with a gain of 4180 points. January ended with a gain of 2768 points while 1997 points were gained in December. October ended with a gain of 2179 points, after closing September with a gain of 4402 points, following a loss of 301 points in August. July gained 1908 points while June saw a gain of 2074 points. The Platinum Service made a record 9619 points in October 2022. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 2300 points. I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking HERE Please subscribe to this for new interview notification
Equities
The S&P 500 closed 0.02% higher at a price of 7520.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 182 points higher for a 0.36% gain at a price of 50,644.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 0.09% lower at a price of 29,973.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 0.10% higher.
This Morning, the MSCI Asia Pacific closed 0.3% lower.
This Morning, the Nikkei closed 0.62% lower at a price of 64,595.
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.04% higher.
The Euro closed 0.01% higher at $1.1626.
The British Pound closed 0.09% lower at $1.3424.
The Japanese Yen fell 0.07% closing at $159.42.
Bonds
U.K.’s 10-Year Gilt closed 2 basis points lower at 4.87%.
Germany’s 10-Year Bund Yield closed 1 basis points higher at 2.99%
U.S.10 Year Treasury closed 2 basis points lower at 4.49%.
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude closed 5.55% lower at $88.68 a barrel.
Gold closed 1.10% lower at $4456.10 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic front we have speeches from ECB Member Lane at 8.15 am and ECB President at 8.20 am. Next, we have Euro-Zone Consumer Confidence at 10.00 am, while at 12.30 pm the ECB will publish the Minutes of the Monetary Policy Meeting. This is followed by Weekly Jobless Claims, PCE, GDP and Durable Goods Orders at 1.30 pm. At 3.00 pm we have New Home Sales and the Dallas Fed PCE. Finally, at 6.00 pm we have a Seven-Year Treasury Auction.
Cash S&P 500
The S&P closed flat on Wednesday. Overall, it was a bit of a snooze fest. The main takeaway is that today begins a nearly $150 billion liquidity drain, starting with $15 billion in T-bills settling, followed by $47 billion in coupon settlements on Friday, $68 billion on Monday, and another $16 billion in T-bill settlements on Tuesday. There should also be another T-bill settlement on June 4, in the roughly $5 billion to $15 billion range. The point is that since the calendar flipped from paydowns to net issuance on May 12, the Index has risen by around 1.8%. However, most of those gains came on May 13 and 14, with the Index otherwise largely stalling around the 7,515 region. Meanwhile, over that same period, Bitcoin is down roughly 7% to 8%. More importantly, it is sitting on support around $75,000, and a break below that level could set up a move towards $70,000. That is something worth watching because, in my experience, Bitcoin tends to be a better liquidity indicator than most other instruments. If the Treasury settlements are a drain on liquidity, then Bitcoin could be heading much lower. In the meantime, the weighted average repo rate was 3.66% yesterday, and I would expect SOFR to either remain flat or move higher again when today’s data arrive at 1 pm London Time. As I have noted before, I think the sharp decline in SOFR was driven mostly by the Treasury’s bill paydowns, which likely created cheaper financing conditions as equity repo positioning surged over the past couple of weeks. Unfortunately, equity repo activity data is delayed by about a week, making it difficult to track accurately in real time. My S&P plan worked well yesterday as the market hit my 7547-sell level before selling off to my revised 7522 T/P level and I am now flat. Renewed hostilities in Iran overnight saw the S&P hit a low at 7490 before rebounding to sit at 7512 as I go to post. Today, I will again be a seller from 7535/7555 with a lower 7573 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 7511. The S&P has short-term support from 7450/7470 where I will be a strong buyer with a 7429 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 7502. If any of these views change, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
EUR/USD
After holding my latest 1.1620 long Euro position for over two weeks the market finally rallied to my 1.1660 T/P level and I am now flat. Today, I will again be a buyer from 1.1500/1.1580 with a lower 1.1425 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 1.1650.
Dollar Index
No Change: The Dollar has short-term resistance from 100.00/100.80 where I will be a seller with a tight 101.50 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 99.30. The Dollar has support below from 98.10/98.80 where I will again be a buyer with a 97.55 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 99.50. If any of these views change, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Russell 2000
I am still short the Russell at an average rate of 2890 I will leave my 2975 ‘Closing Stop’ unchanged while raising my T/P level to 2850. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
FTSE 100
I am still flat. The FTSE has short-term resistance from 10560/10660. I will now lower my sell level to this region with a lower 10775 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 10490. The FTSE has strong support below from 10100/10180 where I will be a strong buyer on any tag. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 10290.
Dow Rolling Contract
I am still flat as the Dow never came close to Wednesday’s buy range. Today, I will continue to be a buyer on any further dip lower to 49900/50200 with a lower 49595 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 50510. I still do not want to be short the Dow at this time.
Cash NASDAQ 100
The NDX traded in a wide 550-point range on Wednesday and I am still flat. The RSI closed at a still severely overbought 75 print. This morning the Futures are trading 150 points lower from last night’s close. The NDX has short-term resistance from 30100/30300 where I will be a small seller with a 30505 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 29860. If this view changes, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
December BUND
The Bund sold off to my 126.10 T/P level on my 126.50 short position and I am now flat. Today, I will again be a seller from 126.60/127.30 with a higher 128.05 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 126.05. I still do not want to be long the Bund at this time.
Gold Rolling Contract
My Gold plan worked well as after the market finally hit my 4415 buy level we rallied to my revised 4455 T/P level and I am now flat. Today, I will again be a buyer on any further dip lower to 4230/4330 with a lower 4095 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 4445 If this view changes, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Silver Rolling Contract
My Silver plan worked well as after the market finally hit my 73.40 buy level we rallied to my revised 74.36 T/P level and I am now flat. Today, I will again be a buyer from 69.00/71.80 with the same 67.95 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 74.40.
Please Note: As Ireland is closed for a Bank Holiday on Monday, my next Daily Commentary will be on Tuesday June 2. Any of my calls that are not executed today and are subsequently triggered on Friday/Monday will see me return with updated emails for my Platinum Members.
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