U.S. Equity Futures jumped and global stocks rose to record highs as crude oil fell after officials signalled – once again – that the US was nearing a deal with Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and restore oil flows. The Dollar weakened while precious metals and crypto bounced from Friday’s drop. While the US and Iran closed in on a deal, Trump said he won’t “rush” into an agreement. The deal is still a work in progress and the US is going to give diplomacy every chance to succeed, Secretary of State Marco Rubio said. S&P 500 futures squeezed higher by over 1.1%, NASDAQ Futures were up 1.5%, both printing in record territory as the market just cannot get enough of news that “a deal is imminent.” US cash markets were shut Monday for the Memorial Day holiday. The Dollar retreated against all of its Group-of-10 peers. Crude oil slumps more than 5%: WTI crude futures fall to around $91 and Brent contracts drop below $98 a barrel. The Australian Dollar tops G-10 leaderboard; with the Euro and Sterling both adding about 0.3%. Nikkei surges more than 3% as Japanese equities hit record highs, and Taiex also jumps about 3%. Mainland China indexes are all in the green. Hong Kong and South Korea are closed for holidays. T-note futures jump 20/32 to near 109-28. Australian curve bull flattens with 10-year yield down 5 bps. JGB futures rally as Japan’s long-end yields slide. Gold rises more than $50 to near $4,560 and silver surges 3%. In short: global euphoria. Consistent The MSCI All Country World Index, the broadest measure of global equities, rose 0.4% to an all-time high closing level. Europe’s benchmark Stoxx 600 gained for a sixth straight session to the highest intraday level since the outbreak of the Iran war. Trading volumes were light, with a number of markets including the UK, Norway and Denmark closed for holidays. Brent tumbled almost 6% to below $100 a barrel amid optimism a deal will help restore the flow of oil through the vital Middle East artery. Senior US officials said yesterday that the US and Iran were nearing an agreement that would reopen the Strait of Hormuz, though final approval from both sides could still take several days. Iran said a deal is not imminent, though there is consensus on a number of issues. While the US and Iran closed in on a deal, President Donald Trump said he won’t “rush” into an agreement. The deal is still a work in progress and the US is going to give diplomacy every chance to succeed, Secretary of State Marco Rubio said. Similarly, Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson says they have reached a framework with the US but nobody can say that an agreement between the two sides is imminent, Reuters reports. he adds that Iran will not collect tolls on the Strait of Hormuz but it’s normal that services provided would require a price. In other words, we do not have a deal as the key sticking points remain unresolved (and unresolvable) but the market is acting as if there is a deal, as has been the case since April. Elsewhere, as reported last week, China launched an unprecedented campaign against illegal cross-border trading to stem capital outflows, threatening severe penalties against popular brokers and ordering non-compliant accounts to be liquidated within two years.
To mark my 3375th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2-Year Rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day to demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 250 points yesterday and is now down by 1625 points for May having ended April with a gain of 1730 points, after ending March with a massive gain of 9002 points, having closed February with a strong gain of 5482 points after ending January with a gain of 4757 points, having closed December with a gain of 2599 points, after ending the month of November with a gain of 4542 points, after ending October with a nice gain of 5110 points after closing September with a gain of 3774 points while ending August with a gain of 3362 points after closing July with a gain of 3753 points after closing June with a gain of 3530 points, having closed May with a gain of 3606 points, after closing April with a gain of 7685 points after closing March with a gain of 2254 points while closing February with a gain of 4180 points. January ended with a gain of 2768 points while 1997 points were gained in December. October ended with a gain of 2179 points, after closing September with a gain of 4402 points, following a loss of 301 points in August. July gained 1908 points while June saw a gain of 2074 points. The Platinum Service made a record 9619 points in October 2022. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 2300 points. I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking HERE Please subscribe to this for new interview notification
Equities
The S&P 500 closed 0.37% higher at a price of 7473.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 294 points higher for a 0.58% gain at a price of 50,579.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 0.42% higher at a price of 29,481.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 1.03% higher.
This Morning, the MSCI Asia Pacific closed 0.4% higher.
This Morning, the Nikkei closed 0.43% lower at a price of 64,877.
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.12% lower.
The Euro closed 0.29% higher at $1.1637.
The British Pound closed 0.48% higher at $1.3499.
The Japanese Yen rose 0.14% closing at $158.91.
Bonds
U.K.’s 10-Year Gilt closed 9 basis points lower at 4.90%.
Germany’s 10-Year Bund Yield closed 8 basis points lower at 2.95%
U.S.10 Year Treasury closed 2 basis points lower at 4.56%.
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude closed 6.49% lower at $90.33 a barrel.
Gold closed 1.35% higher at $4570.10 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic front we have the U.K. CBI Distributive Trades Survey at 11.00 am. Next, we have U.S. Chicago Fed National Activity Index at 1.30 pm and the House Price Index at 2.00 pm. Finally, we have Consumer Confidence, Dallas Fed Manufacturing Business Index and a Two-Year Treasury Auction at 3.00 pm, 3.30 pm and 6.00 pm respectively.
Cash S&P 500
Monday saw a massive gap up to start the new trading week. In the fog of war as I write this it appears the crowd really believes there is a deal to be had. President Trump told us they took care of the uranium issue LAST JUNE. So why is it such a point of contention right now? He was either lying then or lying now and this is why markets have been so tricky to trade over the past month as we are getting so many mixed signals. The U.S. still does not have a deal with Iran and indeed began bombing the southern half of Iran overnight. Oil made a high last Monday, but it is still above the key readings set out over the past few weeks. Those should be retested. The reason oil prices are not much higher is these continuous reports of negotiations where that elusive deal is just around the corner. Remember these are the same people who overreported the jobs numbers by 900,000 for a whole year. Nevertheless, the Dow hits a new all time high as did the SOX which violated a good circular reading. On the other hand, we have NVIDIA which had a good earnings report and the stock dropped. That is not a good sign. This is the classic overall example of buy the rumor and sell the news. Not just for a singular earnings report because the stock already peaked. But the crowd viewed earnings as already baked in the cake. I remember seeing a lot of this sort of thing around the time the original NASDAQ bubble popped in 2000. When good stocks with good earnings reports sell, that is an advance indication of trouble. Given this is one of the most important stocks out there, I think we should pay attention. So, the market remains all over the map. Yesterday the S&P hit my 7552-sell level before trading lower overnight to my revised 7527 T/P level and I am now flat. The S&P has left a massive Gap to Friday’s 7467 Chicago close. Today, I will again be a seller from 7540/7560 with a 7577 ‘Closing Stop’. The S&P has short-term support from 7450/7470 where I will be a strong buyer with a 7429 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 7514. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 7502.
EUR/USD
I am still long the Euro at 1.1620. I will now lower my T/P level to 1.1665. I will add to this position at 1.1540 while leaving my ‘Closing Stop’ unchanged at 1.1475. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Dollar Index
No Change: The Dollar has short-term resistance from 100.00/100.80 where I will be a seller with a tight 101.50 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 99.30. The Dollar has support below from 98.10/98.80 where I will again be a buyer with a 97.55 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 99.50. If any of these views change, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Russell 2000
I am still short the Russell from last week at a price of 2860. I will add to this position at 2920 with a the same 2975 ‘Closing Stop’. I will now raise my T/P level to 2820. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
FTSE 100
I am still flat. The FTSE has short-term resistance from 10580/10680 where I will be a small seller with a 10805 wider ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 10510.
Dow Rolling Contract
I am still flat. The Dow will have short-term support below from 50100/50400 where I will be a strong buyer with a 49895 tight ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 50730. I still do not want to be short the Dow at this time.
Cash NASDAQ 100
I am still short the NDX at an average rate of 29400. I will leave my 29605 ‘Closing Stop’ unchanged while raising my T/P level to 29290. The 14-Day RSI has hit a severely overing 74 print this morning. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
December BUND
The BUND rallied to Monday’s sell range for a now 126.50 short position. I will continue to look to add to this position at 127.20 while leaving my 127.85 ‘Closing Stop’ unchanged. I will now raise my T/P level to 125.90. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Gold Rolling Contract
I am still flat. I will not chase the price of Gold higher as I continue to be a buyer on any dip lower to 4320/4420 with the same 4195 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 4590 If this view changes, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Silver Rolling Contract
No Change: Silver continues to trade heavy and I am still flat. Silver has short-term support below from 70.50/73.50 where I will be an aggressive buyer with the same 67.95 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 76.10.
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