U.S. Indexes ended the first session of the week in the red as US-Iran newsflow dominated the tape, in otherwise a light session of headlines in typical summer trading conditions. Recapping, sources said the 60-day period between Iran and the US has been extended, while a Senior Iranian official said Iran has decided to shift its policy from defensive to a ‘fully offensive’ one, while President Trump stated there are ongoing back channels with the IRGC, which the IRGC denied. As such, slight risk-off price action was seen, as Treasuries weakened and oil gained, settling at highs. Given this, sectors were exclusively in the red, aside from Energy, with Communication Services and Consumer Staples the laggards; there was no tier One US data or Fed speak, as earnings season begins to wind down. Despite saying that, it is the retailers this week, with Home Depot (HD) the highlight this afternnoon. On the stock specific front, there was little new, but the memory ETF DRAM and memory names rallied once again, helped by US Commerce Secretary Lutnick noting the Trump administration opposes Apple (AAPL) using Chinese memory chips. Once again, the calendar for scheduled risk events this week is light, with FOMC Minutes on Wednesday the highlight. The Empire State Manufacturing Index rose to 20.6 in August (exp. 11.0, prev. 15.6), its highest level in more than four years and signalling a further strengthening in New York manufacturing activity. Under the hood, New Orders remained solid at 17.3 (prev. 22.2) and Shipments at 11.7 (prev. 24.4), despite both easing from July, while Unfilled Orders jumped to 15.5 (prev. 5.0). Supply-chain pressures remained notable, with Delivery Times rising to 20.6 (prev. 13.0), Supply Availability deteriorating to -13.4 (prev. -10.0), and Inventories falling to -5.2 (prev. 4.0). On inflation, Prices Paid increased to 58.6 (prev. 52.3), pointing to firmer input-cost pressures, although Prices Received eased for a second consecutive month to 22.7 (prev. 27.6). Labour indicators remained positive, with Employment at 9.3 (prev. 11.4) and the Average Workweek rising to 6.9 (prev. 2.8). Looking ahead, firms remained optimistic, with Future Business Conditions rising to 32.1 (prev. 27.9), alongside stronger expectations for new orders, shipments and notably employment. However, firms expect supply availability to deteriorate further and price pressures to remain elevated. Pantheon Macroeconomics described the manufacturing upturn as still intact but noted that supply-chain pressures remain intense. Elsewhere, both Oil and Gold closed higher by 2.55% and 1.20% respectively.
To mark my 3425th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2-Year Rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day to demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it was flat yesterday and is still ahead by 1710 points for August after closing July with a gain of 8031 points, after ending June with a new record of 10527 points after ending May with a loss of 1104 points, having ended April with a gain of 1730 points, after ending March with a massive gain of 9002 points, having closed February with a strong gain of 5482 points after ending January with a gain of 4757 points, having closed December with a gain of 2599 points, after ending the month of November with a gain of 4542 points, after ending October with a nice gain of 5110 points after closing September with a gain of 3774 points while ending August with a gain of 3362 points after closing July with a gain of 3753 points after closing June with a gain of 3530 points, having closed May with a gain of 3606 points, after closing April with a gain of 7685 points after closing March with a gain of 2254 points while closing February with a gain of 4180 points. January ended with a gain of 2768 points while 1997 points were gained in December. October ended with a gain of 2179 points, after closing September with a gain of 4402 points, following a loss of 301 points in August. July gained 1908 points while June saw a gain of 2074 points. The Platinum Service made a previous record 9619 points in October 2022. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 2300 points. I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking HERE Please subscribe to this for new interview notification
Equities
The S&P 500 closed 0.52% lower at a price of 7745.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 272 points lower for a 0.51% loss at a price of 53,459.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 0.17% lower at a price of 29,995.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 0.22% lower.
Yesterday, the MSCI Asia Pacific closed 0.4% higher.
Yesterday, the Nikkei closed 0.74% higher at 69,220.
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.09% lower.
The Euro closed 0.07% higher at $1.1577.
The British Pound closed 0.03% higher at $1.3540.
The Japanese Yen fell 0.03% closing at $159.38.
Bonds
U.K.’s 10-Year Gilt closed 2 basis points higher at 5.07%.
Germany’s 10-Year Bund Yield closed 2 basis points higher at 3.23%
U.S.10 Year Treasury closed 4 basis points higher at 4.73%.
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude closed 2.55% higher at $84.50 a barrel.
Gold closed 1.20% higher at $4416.10 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic front we have U.K. Unemployment including Average Earnings at 7.00 am, followed by Euro-Zone and German ZEW Surveys’ at 10.00 am. Next, we have U.S. Housing Starts and Building Permits at 1.30 pm, followed by Capacity Utilisation and Industrial Production at 2.15 pm. Finally, we have Pending Home Sales at 3.00 pm.
Cash S&P 500
The S&P 500 finished Monday with a loss of 0.5%, while 30-year rates continued to climb, reaching 5.31%. From this point forward, assuming it holds, the 30-year could be heading significantly higher. Although it probably does not go in a straight line, a move up to 5.5%-5.8% seems possible. The 10-year rate also rose on the day and is now consolidating near resistance at 4.72%. One can imagine that a breakout at these levels could lead to a move higher toward 4.80%, with 5% not that far off. The Dispersion Index was up a bit yesterday, but I am guessing that was because the semiconductor sector was a bit stronger, and so was implied volatility for the VXSMH. The semiconductor sector still seems to have a significant influence on the market, but that influence appears to be waning. The only big events on the calendar are Nvidia’s results in a few weeks, followed by Broadcom. This could lead to implied volatility in the space rising somewhat heading into those results. However, credit default swaps may offer a different view of Nvidia, with spreads closing in on the highs seen on July 29. Don’t tell that to the equity investors, though, because Nvidia’s stock price is trading up right along with the widening credit spreads. Broadcom’s CDS actually widened beyond its July 29 levels, but the stock is at least trading lower, as you would expect. Although you would expect it to be lower than it is. The S&P never came close to Monday’s sell range and I am still flat. I will now lower my sell level to 7780/7805 with a lower 7831 ‘Closing Stop’. My only interest in buying the S&P is on a further move lower to 7610/7635 with a 7585 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 7753. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 7678.
EUR/USD
The Euro traded in a narrow range on Monday and I am still flat. Today, I will raise my buy level to 1.1450/1.1520 with a higher 1.1385 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 1.1590. I still do not want to be short the Euro at this time.
Dollar Index
No Change: I am still long from last week at an average price of 100.45 with the same 99.35 ‘Closing Stop’. As I go to post, the Dollar is trading unchanged at a price of 99.60. I will now lower my exit level on this position to a small loss at 100.10. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Russell 2000
I am still short the Russell at an average price of 3020. I will leave my 3105 ‘Closing Stop’ unchanged while leaving my T/P level unchanged at 3015 and reassess if executed. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
FTSE 100
Late in Monday’s session the FTSE traded lower to my 10720-buy level. I will now lower my T/P level to 10770. I will continue to look to add to this position on any further move lower to 10640 while leaving my 10555 ‘Closing Stop’ unchanged. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Dow Rolling Contract
The Dow never came close to Monday’s sell range and I am still flat. Today, I will lower my sell level to 53900/54200 with a lower 54505 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 53620. I still do not want to be a buyer of the Dow at this time. If this view changes, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Cash NASDAQ 100
The NASDAQ traded in a narrow range on Monday. I am still short at an average rate of 30000 from last week with the same 30305 wider ‘Closing Stop’. I will also leave my 29900 T/P level and reassess if triggered. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members
December BUND
Bund Yields tagged on a further 2 basis points on Monday, closing at new high for the year at 3.23%. I am still flat as the market again fell shy of my buy range. Today, I will lower my buy level to 122.90/123.70 where I will be a strong buyer with a lower 122.15 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 124.40. I still do not want to be short the Bund at this time.
Gold Rolling Contract
No Change: I am still flat. Today, I will continue to be a small buyer from 4170/4270 with a higher 4085 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 4330.
Silver Rolling Contract
Silver continues to trade in wide ranges and is now trading $10 higher from the August lows. Silver has short-term support from 61.30/64.40 where I will be a small buyer with a 59.75 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 66.90. If this view changes, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
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