U.S. Indexes ended the week higher amid broad strength (RSP +0.9%). Healthcare, Industrials, and Utilities outperformed, while Communications was the only sector notably in the red. Hardware names (DELL +16.8%, HPQ +15.3%) surged on Lenovo reporting its highest quarterly growth rate in five years amid strong consumer demand for PCs. Separately, Fed’s Waller shifted to hawkish from his dove stance at the start of the year, arguing against the easing bias in the statement, adding that it is “crazy” given recent data (hot CPI, PPI, and NFP in Apr), to be talking about rate cuts in the near future. The remarks resulted in short-end underperformance in treasuries, leaving money markets pricing in one 25 basis point rate hike by year-end. Meanwhile, Kevin Warsh was sworn in as the 17th Fed Chair, albeit remarks had little impact. Geopolitics continued to dominate the tape, albeit with conflicting reporting. The main takeaways are that Pakistani and Qatari officials are in Iran to try and finalise an agreement between the US. Sky News Arabia, via a source, boosted optimism, noting that negotiations in Tehran have reached an understanding on broad outlines regarding the nuclear issue. However, an Iranian FM Spokesperson said the differences between Iran and the United States are deep and significant. Ultimately, oil settled slightly firmer as markets remain jittery over the future; Axios reported “A source close to President Trump claimed that Trump had grown increasingly frustrated over the past several days and has raised the possibility of a final major military operation”. In FX, the Dollar was broadly firmer against peers, supported by Waller while the Swiss Franc and Sterling saw modest strength. US data saw University of Michigan Sentiment hit a record low and inflation expectations (1yr & 5yr) rise from April. The cost of living remained the top concern, with 57% of consumers spontaneously citing high prices as eroding their personal finances. Fed Member Waller gave a very hawkish set of remarks, especially given his usual tone, as the influential Governor noted that they should remove easing bias from the statement, although he is not advocating for a hike at the moment. Note, in the prior meeting, Waller did not dissent in re. the removal of the language. Waller said do not expect to support a change in the policy rate in the near term, and the outcome will depend heavily on the length of the Iran conflict. Waller noted that if expectations start to become unanchored “would not hesitate” to support a rate hike and cannot rule out hikes if inflation does not abate soon. On the dual mandate, he said the labour market is in balance and no longer the chief concern in determining the path of policy, and he is concerned about climbing expectations as the Fed’s inflation miss enters its sixth year. In the Q&A section, Waller said if expectations over the next 2/3/4 years rise, that is a problem. Want to run an ample reserve type system, and do not want to go back to a scarce reserve system. It is “crazy” given recent data to be talking about rate cuts in the near future. Final UoM for May saw disappointing downward revisions, as sentiment was revised down to 44.8 (prev. & exp. 48.2), conditions 45.8 (prev. & exp. 47.8), and expectations 44.1 (exp. 48.5, prev. 48.1). In addition, 1yr inflation expectations moved up to 4.8% from 4.7%, above the expected 4.5%, with the longer-term 5yr jumping to 3.9% from 3.4%, which was also the consensus. Overall, Oxford Economics notes US/Israel-Iran war continues to depress consumer sentiment, with low-income consumers feeling the most pessimistic about further increases in gas prices. OxEco adds that a sustained rise in long-run inflation expectations would limit the Fed’s ability to view the oil price shock as a one-off. Elsewhere, Oil closed flat while Gold ended Friday’s session with a 0.75% loss.
To mark my 3375th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2-Year Rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day to demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it lost 3760 points on Friday and is now down by 1875 points for May having ended April with a gain of 1730 points, after ending March with a massive gain of 9002 points, having closed February with a strong gain of 5482 points after ending January with a gain of 4757 points, having closed December with a gain of 2599 points, after ending the month of November with a gain of 4542 points, after ending October with a nice gain of 5110 points after closing September with a gain of 3774 points while ending August with a gain of 3362 points after closing July with a gain of 3753 points after closing June with a gain of 3530 points, having closed May with a gain of 3606 points, after closing April with a gain of 7685 points after closing March with a gain of 2254 points while closing February with a gain of 4180 points. January ended with a gain of 2768 points while 1997 points were gained in December. October ended with a gain of 2179 points, after closing September with a gain of 4402 points, following a loss of 301 points in August. July gained 1908 points while June saw a gain of 2074 points. The Platinum Service made a record 9619 points in October 2022. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 2300 points. I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking HERE Please subscribe to this for new interview notification
Equities
The S&P 500 closed 0.37% higher at a price of 7473.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 294 points higher for a 0.58% gain at a price of 50,579.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 0.42% higher at a price of 29,481.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 0.80% higher.
This Morning, the MSCI Asia Pacific closed 0.9% higher.
This Morning, the Nikkei closed 2.80% higher at a price of 65,109.
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.03% higher.
The Euro closed 008% lower at $1.1609.
The British Pound closed 0.11% higher at $1.3442.
The Japanese Yen fell 0.13% closing at $159.13.
Bonds
U.K.’s 10-Year Gilt closed 9 basis points lower at 4.90%.
Germany’s 10-Year Bund Yield closed 6 basis points lower at 3.03%
U.S.10 Year Treasury closed 2 basis points lower at 4.56%.
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude closed 0.29% higher at $96.63 a barrel.
Gold closed 0.77% lower at $4507.10 an ounce.
With both the U.K. and U.S. markets closed today we have no economic news on either side of the Atlantic.
Cash S&P 500
The K economy shows no sign of ending anytime soon driven by the frantic rise in AI. Supply chains are tightening again, deglobalisation is reshaping the global economy, and the last vestiges of fiscal stimulus are fading fast. That is the common thread running through last week’s research — a world that is structurally slowing down, even as markets remain stubbornly complacent. The latest thematic report shows that global supply chain stress indicators from the New York Fed and World Bank have climbed to levels not seen since 2022, yet with labor markets softening, central banks may have room to look through near-term price pressures rather than tighten further. Meanwhile, the strategic push toward reshoring and supply chain resilience is accelerating — a trend that creates a more robust but structurally slower-growing global economy. And on the fiscal side, any remaining affordability measures out of Congress may represent the last gasp of fiscal impulse before a divided government freezes the status quo in place. The macro picture is shifting beneath investors’ feet. Meanwhile, in the Philly Fed report, the Employment Diffusion Index did rise to -2.8, but it remains in negative territory. This means that more firms are reporting employment declines than are reporting employment increases. This is consistent with indications of a soft job market. As a reminder, the Minutes for the April 29th FOMC meeting included a debate over signs of weak job growth, with “a few participants” seeing it as a sign of a fragile job market, while “several participants” said that was “not necessarily” the case. No matter, signs point toward a soft labor market with little prospect of upward wage pressures on the horizon. The S&P closed higher by a further 0.37% on Friday and this rally has continued overnight on the back of a brokered deal with Iran being ‘’CLOSE’. Oil prices are lower by 7% propelling the S&P to a new all-time high at 7547 with an RSI back above 70. Late Friday I emailed my Platinum Members that I had exited my outstanding 7097 large short position at 7487. This was not an easy decision but this short position has stopped me from trading the S&P over the past month and is clouding my judgement. Unfortunately, this is the largest single loss that I have ever taken on my Platinum Service for that I apologise. One of the main reasons that I closed this position was the fact that the Dow broke its February high and in the process negating the Dow Theory sell signal. The S&P will have short-term support from 7458/7478 where I will be a small buyer with a 7439 ‘Closing Stop’. The S&P will have short-term resistance from 7552/7572 where I will be a small seller with a 7591 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 7505. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 7523. With both the U.S. and U.K. Markets closed today, trading should be quiet.
EUR/USD
The Euro has traded in a 60-point range for much of the last two weeks. I am still long the Euro at 1.1620. I will now lower my T/P level to 1670. I will add to this position at 1.1540 while leaving my ‘Closing Stop’ unchanged at 1.1475. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Dollar Index
No Change: The Dollar has short-term resistance from 100.00/100.80 where I will be a seller with a tight 101.50 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 99.30. The Dollar has support below from 98.10/98.80 where I will again be a buyer with a 97.55 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 99.50. If any of these views change, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Russell 2000
The Russell surged on Friday, closing at a new all-time high. This latest rally saw the market hit my sell range for a now 2860 short position. I will add to this position at 2920 with a now higher 2975 ‘Closing Stop’. I will now raise my T/P level to 2800. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
FTSE 100
I am still flat as the FTSE never came close to Thursday’s buy range. With the U.K. Markets closed today I will stay flat the FTSE until tomorrow’s DC.
Dow Rolling Contract
The Dow surged on Friday, and in the process broke its February High, negating the negative divergence that has existed for much of the past three months. Thankfully we have had no short position in the Dow believing that the market could play catch up with the other main American Indexes. This morning, the Dow is trading higher at a price of 51,000. The Dow will have short-term support below from 50100/50400 where I will be a strong buyer with a 49895 tight ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 50730. I still do not want to be short the Dow at this time.
Cash NASDAQ 100
My NDX plan worked well as the market sold off to my 29040 T/P level on my latest 29200 average short position. Subsequently I sold the NDX again for a now 29400 average short position. I will leave my 29605 ‘Closing Stop’ unchanged while raising my T/P level to 29250. The 14-Day RSI has hit a severely overing 74 print this morning. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
December BUND
The BUND has surged over the past three trading sessions, trading above 126.00 this morning. The Bund has short-ter resistance from 126.40/127.10 where I will be a small seller with a 127.85 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 125.70.
Gold Rolling Contract
I am still flat. I will not chase the price of Gold higher as I continue to be a buyer on any dip lower to 4320/4420 with the same 4195 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 4590 If this view changes, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Silver Rolling Contract
No Change: Silver continues to trade heavy and I am still flat. Silver has short-term support below from 70.50/73.50 where I will be an aggressive buyer with the same 67.95 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 76.10.
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