U.S. Indexes were lower while Oil prices remained supported amid ongoing uncertainty around US/Iran talks, with both assets paring earlier extremes before renewed late-session volatility. Crude initially eased on reports the US may be willing to lift its blockade but later rallied after Tasnim reported Iran’s decision not to attend talks was final, while AP noted Vice President Vance has called off his planned trip to Pakistan. Equities followed a similar path, trimming earlier losses before selling into the close as hopes for near-term negotiations faded. Conflicting signals throughout the session underscore the fluid and fragile nature of the situation. Higher oil prices drove a bear flattening in Treasuries, while the Dollar firmed on geopolitical uncertainty, weighing on G10 peers. Gold and silver were softer as yields rose. Elsewhere, Warsh stressed Fed independence and favoured a smaller balance sheet, while retail sales were strong but boosted by gasoline prices. Note, after the US cash closed equity futures rallied, crude futures were hit, Dollar was sold, T-notes and gold were bid as Trump extended the ceasefire but continued Iran blockade. The Fed Chair nominee Kevin Warsh largely stressed the importance of Fed independence and said several times that he would not let the President dictate his decisions on interest rates. He also denied that Trump had asked him to pre-commit to a rate cut at any particular meeting and said he would never do such a thing. Warsh appeared focused on returning inflation to target, but said the Fed needed a new inflation framework. On monetary policy, he said the interest rate tool was fairer, while stressing that balance sheets should be smaller and should not hold long-term maturities. Warsh also said he did not believe in forward guidance. He is optimistic about the economy’s potential, especially in the face of AI. On transparency, Warsh said there was no lack of transparency at present and that more than four FOMC meetings per year was appropriate. Headline Retail Sales rose 1.7% M/M in March, accelerating from 0.6% previously and topping the 1.4% forecast. The headline was boosted by a hefty 15.5% rise in gasoline sales, accelerating from 1.3% previously, largely due to higher gasoline costs in the wake of the US/Iran conflict. Excluding gas and autos, retail sales rose 0.6%, above the prior 0.4%. The control group rose 0.7%, above both the 0.2% consensus and the prior 0.6%. Overall, it was a strong report, though the headline was largely lifted by the 15.5% rise in gasoline sales. Elsewhere in the report, miscellaneous store retailers were the only sector to post a decline. Meanwhile, other businesses including furniture, electronics, building materials, food and beverage stores, and general merchandise stores accelerated. Motor vehicle and parts dealers, Health and personal care, clothing, sporting goods, non-store retailers, and food services and drinking places cooled from the February report. Summarising the data, Pantheon Macroeconomics highlighted that consumers continued to increase spending on non-fuel products despite the jump in gas prices. However, the desk notes that growth in households’ real spending likely slowed to about 1.5% in Q1, below the 2.1% average of the prior four quarters. Elsewhere, Oil closed higher by 2.5% while Gold was lower ending Tuesday’s session with a 2.6% loss.
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For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 185 points yesterday and is now ahead by 1196 points for April after ending March with a massive gain of 9002 points, having closed February with a strong gain of 5482 points after ending January with a gain of 4757 points, having closed December with a gain of 2599 points, after ending the month of November with a gain of 4542 points, after ending October with a nice gain of 5110 points after closing September with a gain of 3774 points while ending August with a gain of 3362 points after closing July with a gain of 3753 points after closing June with a gain of 3530 points, having closed May with a gain of 3606 points, after closing April with a gain of 7685 points after closing March with a gain of 2254 points while closing February with a gain of 4180 points. January ended with a gain of 2768 points while 1997 points were gained in December. October ended with a gain of 2179 points, after closing September with a gain of 4402 points, following a loss of 301 points in August. July gained 1908 points while June saw a gain of 2074 points. The Platinum Service made a record 9619 points in October 2022. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 2300 points. I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking HERE Please subscribe to this for new interview notification
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