U.S. Indexes were lower while Oil prices remained supported amid ongoing uncertainty around US/Iran talks, with both assets paring earlier extremes before renewed late-session volatility. Crude initially eased on reports the US may be willing to lift its blockade but later rallied after Tasnim reported Iran’s decision not to attend talks was final, while AP noted Vice President Vance has called off his planned trip to Pakistan. Equities followed a similar path, trimming earlier losses before selling into the close as hopes for near-term negotiations faded. Conflicting signals throughout the session underscore the fluid and fragile nature of the situation. Higher oil prices drove a bear flattening in Treasuries, while the Dollar firmed on geopolitical uncertainty, weighing on G10 peers. Gold and silver were softer as yields rose. Elsewhere, Warsh stressed Fed independence and favoured a smaller balance sheet, while retail sales were strong but boosted by gasoline prices. Note, after the US cash closed equity futures rallied, crude futures were hit, Dollar was sold, T-notes and gold were bid as Trump extended the ceasefire but continued Iran blockade. The Fed Chair nominee Kevin Warsh largely stressed the importance of Fed independence and said several times that he would not let the President dictate his decisions on interest rates. He also denied that Trump had asked him to pre-commit to a rate cut at any particular meeting and said he would never do such a thing. Warsh appeared focused on returning inflation to target, but said the Fed needed a new inflation framework. On monetary policy, he said the interest rate tool was fairer, while stressing that balance sheets should be smaller and should not hold long-term maturities. Warsh also said he did not believe in forward guidance. He is optimistic about the economy’s potential, especially in the face of AI. On transparency, Warsh said there was no lack of transparency at present and that more than four FOMC meetings per year was appropriate. Headline Retail Sales rose 1.7% M/M in March, accelerating from 0.6% previously and topping the 1.4% forecast. The headline was boosted by a hefty 15.5% rise in gasoline sales, accelerating from 1.3% previously, largely due to higher gasoline costs in the wake of the US/Iran conflict. Excluding gas and autos, retail sales rose 0.6%, above the prior 0.4%. The control group rose 0.7%, above both the 0.2% consensus and the prior 0.6%. Overall, it was a strong report, though the headline was largely lifted by the 15.5% rise in gasoline sales. Elsewhere in the report, miscellaneous store retailers were the only sector to post a decline. Meanwhile, other businesses including furniture, electronics, building materials, food and beverage stores, and general merchandise stores accelerated. Motor vehicle and parts dealers, Health and personal care, clothing, sporting goods, non-store retailers, and food services and drinking places cooled from the February report. Summarising the data, Pantheon Macroeconomics highlighted that consumers continued to increase spending on non-fuel products despite the jump in gas prices. However, the desk notes that growth in households’ real spending likely slowed to about 1.5% in Q1, below the 2.1% average of the prior four quarters. Elsewhere, Oil closed higher by 2.5% while Gold was lower ending Tuesday’s session with a 2.6% loss.
To mark my 3350th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2-Year Rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day to demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 185 points yesterday and is now ahead by 1196 points for April after ending March with a massive gain of 9002 points, having closed February with a strong gain of 5482 points after ending January with a gain of 4757 points, having closed December with a gain of 2599 points, after ending the month of November with a gain of 4542 points, after ending October with a nice gain of 5110 points after closing September with a gain of 3774 points while ending August with a gain of 3362 points after closing July with a gain of 3753 points after closing June with a gain of 3530 points, having closed May with a gain of 3606 points, after closing April with a gain of 7685 points after closing March with a gain of 2254 points while closing February with a gain of 4180 points. January ended with a gain of 2768 points while 1997 points were gained in December. October ended with a gain of 2179 points, after closing September with a gain of 4402 points, following a loss of 301 points in August. July gained 1908 points while June saw a gain of 2074 points. The Platinum Service made a record 9619 points in October 2022. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 2300 points. I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking HERE Please subscribe to this for new interview notification
Equities
The S&P 500 closed 0.63% lower at a price of 7064.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 293 points lower for a 0.59% loss at a price of 49,149.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 0.42% lower at a price of 26,479.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 0.87% lower.
Yesterday, the MSCI Asia Pacific closed 0.6% higher.
Yesterday, the Nikkei closed 0.89% higher at a price of 59,349.
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.31% higher.
The Euro closed 0.53% lower at $1.1725.
The British Pound closed 0.39% lower at $1.3480.
The Japanese Yen fell 0.48% closing at $159.60.
Bonds
U.K.’s 10-Year Gilt closed 36 basis points higher at 5.14%.
Germany’s 10-Year Bund Yield closed 3 basis points higher at 3.01%
U.S.10 Year Treasury closed 5 basis points higher at 4.31%.
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude closed 2.54% higher at $89.64 a barrel.
Gold closed 2.6% lower at $4695.10 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front we have U.K. CPI and PPI at 7.00 am. This is followed by U.S. MBA Mortgage Applications at 12.00 pm. Next, we have Euro-Zone Consumer Confidence at 3.00 pm. Finally, we have a 20-Year Treasury Auction at 6.00 pm and a speech from ECB President Lagarde at 6.30 pm.
Cash S&P 500
Stocks finished the day lower, with the S&P 500 breaking the uptrend that had formed off the late-March lows. The next level of support for the Index comes around the 10-day exponential moving average, which roughly aligns with the support level of 6,975—a level that had previously acted as resistance. Given the market move—whether bullish or bearish—some degree of retracement would not be a surprise. Markets do not move in a straight line, and a pullback to the 38.2% or 61.8% levels would not be unusual. What is interesting here is how the 61.8% retracement level aligns with the gap from April 8 at 6,620. Clearly, a breakout to the upside would be a significant positive catalyst, with the potential for the S&P 500 to move above 7,900. However, that outcome appears less likely than a pullback, given the current level of global uncertainty and Brent crude trading near $100 a barrel. Additionally, Kevin Warsh had his confirmation hearing yesterday afternoon. While he spoke at length about lower rates, he also emphasised limited to no forward guidance, no Summary of Economic Projections, and a much smaller balance sheet. To me, that implies less liquidity and likely higher yields further out on the curve. How often has the Fed stepped in to support the market over the years? Now imagine a market left to work through things on its own. Rates did move higher on the day, likely driven more by oil than by Warsh. That said, rates are starting to take on a similar look to oil. The 10-year appears to be forming a bull flag, although resistance around 4.35% remains firm, and yields have not moved meaningfully in some time. The bigger concern comes just a few basis points higher, around 4.40%. A move through that level would likely mark a breakout from a multi-year consolidation phase and signal the start of a much larger move. Clearly, oil would be the bigger driver of higher rates. Setting aside the news and focusing on the technicals, the charts suggest that Brent crude could move higher from current levels, assuming the intraday inverted head-and-shoulders and the larger falling wedge patterns continue to play out. I am still short the S&P from last Friday at an average rate of 7019 with the same 6995 T/P level. I will continue to have no stop on this position. I will look to add to this trade at 7150. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
EUR/USD
The Euro never came close to yesterday’s sell range before trading lower into its New York close. The Euro has short-term support below from 1.1580/1.1660 where I will be a small buyer with a 1.1495 ‘Closing Stop’. I will now lower my sell level to 1.1790/1.1860 with a lower 1.1935 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 1.1730. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 1.1730.
Dollar Index
I am still long the Dollar at an average rate of 98.30 with the same 97.25 ‘Closing Stop’. I will leave my T/P level unchanged at 98.70. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Russell 2000
No Change: I am still short the Russell at an average rate of 2725 from last Friday. To reduce risk, I will leave my 2700 T/P level unchanged with the same 2795 ‘Closing Stop’. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
FTSE 100
U.K. Gilt Yields closed a huge 36 basis points higher on Tuesday. This move higher saw yields hit 5.15% which is the highest level since 2008. This higher move saw the FTSE close 1.4% lower at 10450 having hit an overnight high at 10635. The FTSE has support below from 10250/10350 where I will be a small buyer with a 10155 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 10460. I no longer want to be short the FTSE at this time.
Dow Rolling Contract
The Dow traded in a wide 700-point range on Tuesday and I am still flat. My only interest in selling the Dow is on a further rally higher to 49700/50000 with a 50205 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 49430. If this view changes, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Cash NASDAQ 100
Just before the close the NDX sold off to my 26420 T/P level on my latest 26480 average short position and I am now flat. As I go to post the NDX is trading higher at a price of 26660. The NDX has resistance from 26730/26980 where I will again be a seller with a higher 27105 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 26480. I still do not want to be long the NDX at this time.
December BUND
Unfortunately, the Bund just missed Tuesday’s sell level before following the Gilt Market lower. Today, I will again lower my sell level to 126.50/127.30 with a lower 128.05 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 125.70.
Gold Rolling Contract
Gold fell 3% yesterday and I am still flat. The bottom of the Bollinger Band comes in at a price of 4349 this morning. I will now raise my Gold buy level slightly to 4320/4420 while leaving my 4195 wider ‘Closing Stop’ unchanged. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 4530. If this view changes, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Silver Rolling Contract
It took a while but finally my Silver plan worked well as the market traded lower to my 75.70 buy level before rallying to my revised 76.95 T/P level and I am now flat. Today, I will again be a buyer on any further dip lower to to 71.80/74.80 with a lower 69.85 wider ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 77.30. I still do not want to be short Silver at this time.
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