U.S. Indexes ultimately closed mostly higher on Monday, although gains were concentrated in large-cap tech, while the Russell 2000 underperformed and broader sector breadth remained weak outside of Technology and Energy. Technology was supported by strength in mega-cap names Nvidia and Microsoft after the companies unveiled a new Windows AI superchip, which also lifted related names including Dell, HP and Arm. Energy outperformed following a raft of geopolitical headlines, with the key update coming from Tasnim, which reported that Iran had halted message exchanges with the US via mediators and was threatening to completely block both the Bab al-Mandab Strait and the Strait of Hormuz. However, sentiment improved through the afternoon as subsequent headlines were more constructive, namely, President Trump announcing a Hezbollah/Israel ceasefire, allowing crude prices to retreat from peaks, although both benchmarks still settled firmly higher. The move higher in crude weighed on Treasuries and lifted the Dollar against most major peers, while precious metals also came under pressure. USD/JPY continued to edge towards the 160 level, a threshold that markets continue to monitor for potential intervention. On the data front, US ISM Manufacturing surprised to the upside, with a stronger-than-expected headline print accompanied by firmer employment and easing price pressures. Treasuries later pared some losses after President Trump announced an Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire, helping yields come off session highs. Looking ahead, focus turns to JOLTS on Tuesday, followed by ADP and ISM Services on Wednesday, before Friday’s key Non-Farm Payrolls Report. The headline ISM Manufacturing PMI print for May rose to 54.0 from 52.7, above the 53.0 consensus. The jump was supported by gains in New Orders to 56.8 from 54.1 and Production to 54.3 from 53.4. Prices, however, saw a welcome drop, albeit remaining elevated at 82.1 from 84.6. Employment meanwhile rose to 48.6 from 46.4. The backlog of orders index rose to 52.2 from 51.4. The higher than expected print is a welcome sign for the US economy, particularly when coupled with upside in employment and an easing of inflation. Respondents broadly highlighted that the escalation in Middle East tensions, particularly around Iran, is driving higher energy and fuel costs, which are feeding through into broader input cost inflation and pressuring profitability. Many firms also cited supply chain disruptions, shipment delays and material shortages, particularly in semiconductors and critical raw materials, with concerns these constraints could worsen if geopolitical tensions persist. Alongside this, uncertainty around tariffs and the wider geopolitical backdrop is making customers more cautious, with some delaying spending commitments and resisting price increases. That said, demand has remained resilient in some pockets, with several respondents still reporting stronger-than-expected sales growth, though optimism is tempered by concerns that sustained higher costs and prolonged instability could squeeze margins and weaken activity going forward. Elsewhere, Oil closed higher by 5.5% while Gold ended Monday’s session with a 1% loss.
To mark my 3375th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2-Year Rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day to demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 305 points yesterday on the first trading session for June after ending May with a loss of 1104 points, having ended April with a gain of 1730 points, after ending March with a massive gain of 9002 points, having closed February with a strong gain of 5482 points after ending January with a gain of 4757 points, having closed December with a gain of 2599 points, after ending the month of November with a gain of 4542 points, after ending October with a nice gain of 5110 points after closing September with a gain of 3774 points while ending August with a gain of 3362 points after closing July with a gain of 3753 points after closing June with a gain of 3530 points, having closed May with a gain of 3606 points, after closing April with a gain of 7685 points after closing March with a gain of 2254 points while closing February with a gain of 4180 points. January ended with a gain of 2768 points while 1997 points were gained in December. October ended with a gain of 2179 points, after closing September with a gain of 4402 points, following a loss of 301 points in August. July gained 1908 points while June saw a gain of 2074 points. The Platinum Service made a record 9619 points in October 2022. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 2300 points. I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking HERE Please subscribe to this for new interview notification
Equities
The S&P 500 closed 0.26% higher at a price of 7599.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 46 points higher for a 0.09% gain at a price of 51,078.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 0.60% higher at a price of 30,513.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 0.76% lower.
This Morning, the MSCI Asia Pacific closed 0.4% lower.
This Morning, the Nikkei closed 0.30% lower at a price of 66,734.
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.34% higher.
The Euro closed 0.29% lower at $1.1624.
The British Pound closed 0.05% lower at $1.3453.
The Japanese Yen fell 0.23% closing at $159.64.
Bonds
U.K.’s 10-Year Gilt closed 3 basis points higher at 4.90%.
Germany’s 10-Year Bund Yield closed 1 basis points higher at 3.00%
U.S.10 Year Treasury closed 1 basis points higher at 4.50%.
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude closed 5.51% higher at $92.17 a barrel.
Gold closed 1.11% lower at $4487.10 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic front we have U.K. Money Supply and Mortgage Approvals at 9.30 am, followed by Euro-Zone CPI at 10.00 am. Finally, we have JOLTS Job Openings and a speech from Bank of England Governor Bailey at 3.00 pm.
Cash S&P 500
Since the Global Financial Crisis in 2008 the Fed has operated under a set of assumptions that would have been unrecognisable to either Walter Bagehot or Paul Volcker. Forward guidance as a primary tool. Permanent balance sheet expansion as the default response to any stress. The Central Bank as a perpetual crisis manager rather than a last resort. That is the Bernanke/Yellen/Powell regime and we are now living with the rather severe unintended consequences. The low Interest Rate, QE (infinity), balance sheet expansion regime created a distortion in asset markets and is the basis for much of the income and wealth disparity that has developed in the last 17 years. Bernanke explicitly said he was targeting asset prices in order to create a wealth effect. The very people who mocked trickle-down economics under President Reagan practiced an extreme version that resulted in trickle up. New Fed Chair Warsh may be the first Fed Chair in a generation who intends to reverse that regime. Not just tighten policy but reverse the philosophy. Back to something both Greenspan and Volcker would recognise. The reason I bring this up is on the back of President Trump’s speech at Chair Warsh swearing-in ceremony in the East Room of the White House – the first such ceremony held there in more than 20 years, itself a deliberate signal of institutional weight where Trump said this publicly: ‘I want Kevin to be totally independent and just do a great job. Don’t look at me; don’t look at anybody. Just do your own thing-and do a great job’. This is really interesting as everyone expected Warsh to cut rates from the start. This implies that Trump knows inflation is his existential political problem, even if he would never say publicly. He knows because voters have a long memory when it comes to inflation, and the worst outcome for him politically is a Fed that appears to be doing his bidding rather than its job. Warsh first press conference in two weeks time following the June FOMC Meeting will be really interesting in my opinion as this conference may well witness the groundwork being laid for the first serious attempt to exit the post-2008 Central Bank regime. TBD. The S&P traded the whole of Thursday’s sell range for a 7349 average short position before stopping me out of this position at 7373 on Friday evening. Yesterday, I emailed my Platinum Members to sell the S&P again which we did at 7615 before overnight the market traded lower to my 7575 T/P level and I am now flat. The S&P hit a low at 7565 and is now trading at 7592 as I go to post. I will look to sell the market from 7605/7625 with a 7643 tight ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 7576. I still do not want to be long the S&P at this time.
EUR/USD
The boring sideways price action continues and I am still flat. Today, I will again be a buyer from 1.1500/1.1580 with a lower 1.1425 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 1.1650.
Dollar Index
On Friday the Dollar finally sold off to my 98.80 buy level. I am still long with the same 99.30 T/P level. I will add to this position at 98.10 while leaving my 97.55 ‘Closing Stop’ unchanged. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Russell 2000
No Change: I am still short the Russell at an average rate of 2890. I will leave my 2975 ‘Closing Stop’ unchanged while raising my T/P level to 2855. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
FTSE 100
I am still flat. The FTSE has traded heavy in comparison the American Indexes. The FTSE has strong support below from 10100/10180 where I will be a strong buyer on any tag. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 10290.
Dow Rolling Contract
I am still flat as the Dow never came close to Thursday’s buy range. Today, I will raise my buy level to 50100/50400 with a higher 49795 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 50770. I still do not want to be short the Dow at this time.
Cash NASDAQ 100
The NDX continues to make one new closing high on a Daily Basis in an environment where the 14 -Day RSI is consistently trading near an unsustainable 78. On Thursday, after the NDX hit my initial 30100 sell level the market sold off to my revised 30010 T/P level. On Monday the NDX hit a new all-time intra-day high at 30535. This move higher as me short at an average rate of 30430 as emailed to my Platinum Members. I will have a T/P level on this position at 30210 while my stop is at a ‘Closing Price’ of 30705. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
December BUND
My Bund plan worked well as the market rallied to my 126.60 sell level before trading lower to my 126.05 T/P level and I am now flat. Today, I will again be a seller on any further rally to 126.40/127.10 with a lower 127.85 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 125.85. I still do not want to be long the Bund at this time.
Gold Rolling Contract
I am still flat. Today, I will raise my buy level to 4290/4390 with a higher 4155 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 4510 If this view changes, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Silver Rolling Contract
I am still flat. Today, I will raise my buy level to 70.50/73.50 with a higher 68.95 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 75.40.
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