Equity Markets closed lower while Treasuries climbed as investors assessed the latest news on trade talks and awaited more clues on Monetary Policy. The S&P 500 Index halted a three-day rally after U.S. Secretary of State Michael Pompeo told CNBC that Huawei Technologies Co. is not the only Chinese company that poses risks. He also sees the U.S. and China continuing their talks — at least by phone — over the next week or 10 days. Later Tuesday, President Donald Trump said he is not ready to make a deal with China and cited the need for a “big” Federal Reserve rate cut. Benchmark 10-year yields slumped while the US Dollar dropped from this year’s high. Italian bonds jumped as Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte resigned.
To mark my 1875th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2 year rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day To demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 141 points yesterday and is now ahead by 1395 points for August, having made 1153 points in July, 1346 points in June,1722 points in May, 955 points in April, 1027 points in March, 1013 points in February and 1671 points in January. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1600 points
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Equities
Just a day after markets cheered progress on trade negotiations, investors took a more cautious approach. Trump’s top economic adviser, Larry Kudlow, speaks with business leaders this week amid concerns about a recession, the trade war and whipsawing markets. Pacific Investment Management Co. has reduced its positions in government debt on bets that a breakthrough in U.S.-China trade talks could trigger a violent sell-off, the Financial Times reported. Traders are also gearing up for a keynote speech from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell at the Jackson Hole symposium on Friday. Wall Street watchdogs handpicked by Trump eased the Volcker Rule’s controversial ban on banks making speculative investments, wrapping up a top deregulatory priority that has long been sought by the financial industry. Still, bank stocks joined broader market losses. The S&P 500 fell 0.8% to close at 2,900, having traded to an intra-day high of 2932. In Europe, the Stoxx Europe 600 Index decreased 0.7%.
Currencies
Here is a summary of the main changes in F.X.Markets:
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index declined 0.3%.
The Euro rose 0.2% to $1.1102.
The Pound rose 0.4% to close at $1.2170.
The Japanese Yen increased 0.4% to 106.21 per dollar.
Bonds
The yield on 10-year Treasuries slid six basis points to 1.55%.
Germany’s 10-year yield fell four basis points to -0.69%.
Britain’s 10-year yield dropped two basis points to 0.452%.
Commodities
The Bloomberg Commodity Index was little changed.
West Texas Intermediate crude climbed 0.2% to $56.34 a barrel.
Gold increased 0.3% to $1,516.70 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front we have U.K. Public Sector Net Borrowing Requirement at 9.30 am. This is followed at 12.00 pm by U.S MBA Mortgage Applications. At 3.00 pm we have Existing Home Sales. Finally we have the FOMC Minutes at 7.00 pm. These Minutes of the Fed’s July meeting will provide details on the discussions leading to the first interest-rate cut in a decade.
September S&P 500
After the Futures Market re-opened at 9.30 pm the S&P traded lower to my 2896 buy level. Just as I go to post the market has rallied to my 2904 T/P level and I am now flat. As speculated last night the ”Open Gap” from Friday’s 2891.25 to Monday’s 2915 low would not hold and now most of this Gap has been filled as we wait for the FOMC Minutes at 7.00 pm. Today I will again look to buy the S&P on any dip lower to 2884/2994 with a 2875 stop. If I am taken long at this new buy level I will have a T/P level at 2901. If any of the above levels are hit I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
EUR/USD
Late in the New York session the Euro finally traded higher to my 1.1098 breakeven trade from last Friday’s long position and I am now flat. I will look to buy the Euro again on any further dip lower to 1.1020/1.1060 with a 1.0980 stop. Given the low DSI reading for the Euro I still do not want to be short the Euro at this time.
September Dollar Index
Unfortunately the Dollar just missed my 98.45 sell level with a 98.33 high print and I am still flat. Today I will lower my sell level slightly to 98.30/98.70 with a lower 98.05 stop.
September DAX
I am still flat the DAX as the market never came close to yesterday’s buy range. Ahead of the FOMC I will now lower my buy level to 11330/11400 with a 11265 stop.
September FTSE
The Pound is finally beginning to show some life and if Cable can get back above 1.22 we could well see an acceleration to the upside. If and when this happens the FTSE should start to underperform. As a result I will now lower my FTSE buy level to 6970/7010 with a lower 6935 stop.
Dow Rolling Contract
The Dow just missed my 26260 sell level before falling 300 points into the close. Thankfully we had no buy levels in this market. Today I will lower my sell level to 26190/26340 with a lower 26420 stop. I still do not want to be long the Dow at this time.
September NASDAQ
My NASDAQ plan worked well. By the time you got to read yesterday’s Daily Commentary I am guessing your were able to short around the 7730 level before the market fell to my revised 7685 T/P level and I am now flat. Today I will again look to sell the market on any further rally to 7730/7780 with a 7825 stop. Just like the Dow above I still do not want to be long the NASDAQ at this time.
September BUND
After the Bund traded higher to my 179.00 sell level I emailed my Platinum Members to exit any short position at my revised 178.84 T/P level and I am now flat. Ahead of the FOMC Minutes my only interest in selling the Bund is on a further rally higher to 179.40/179.80 with a 180.15 stop.
Gold Rolling Contract
I am still flat Gold and today I will now raise my buy level to 1475/1485 with a higher 1468 stop. Given the high DSI I am reluctant to chase this market much higher.
Silver Rolling Contract
Frustratingly Silver again just missed my 16.80 buy level with a 16.83 low print before reversing most of Monday’s sell-off. I am still flat and today I will raise my buy level to 16.50/16.90 with a higher and tight 16.25 stop. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 17.09.
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