The US stocks ended yesterday’s trading session mixed. The Dow and S&P closed marginally lower after making new Year to Date highs while the NASDAQ closed 0.12% higher. The Dow fell 300 points from its 26109 high print before a late rally. After the bell Fed Ex reported weaker than expected earnings which initially hit the Futures market before reversing after the Nikei closed higher. This morning EU Commissioner Juncker said it was ‘’Highly Probable’’ that Britain will not leave the EU on March 29. He said that the EU Leaders will meet next week to finalise a Brexit extension. This news has not affected Sterling which is opening unchanged at 1.3250.
To mark my 1800th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2 year rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day To demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoblecom for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 79 points yesterday and is now ahead by 615 points for March, having made 1013 points in February, 1671 points in January, 2803 points in December, 1541 points in November and 2094 points in October. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1600 points
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Currencies
The past 24 hours again saw little movement in the FX world. Sterling is unchanged as we wait to see how long Brexit will be delayed. The only currency which is seeing a lot of action is the Swedish Kroner which is the worst performing currency this year. With Interest Rates below zero the Kroner is having its deepest slump in a decade and this slump is starting to unnerve the Country’s Business Leaders. Rising import costs are having a huge affect on the Retail sector and with Interest Rates unlikely to rise anytime soon a further depreciation of the Swedish Kroner is likely.
Equities
European Equity Markets finished strongly yesterday with the DAX leading the charge with a gain of over 1%. However these markets closed before the US Indices reversed earlier gains and the DAX has opened 0.65% lower this morning. Overnight the Nikkei closed 0.20% higher as we wait for the FOMC Statement and Powell press conference this evening.
Bonds
With Interest Rates unlikely to be raised anytime soon it is no wonder that there is so little price action in the US or European Bond Markets. Yesterday both the US 10 Year Treasury and German Bund Yield close 2 bps higher at 2.61% and 0.10% respectively.
Commodities
Another quiet session for the precious metals with both Gold and Silver closing unchanged while the oil price was slightly higher as we wait for the inventory data this afternoon.
This morning on the Economic Front we already had the release of German PPI which fell 0.1% against an expected of a 0.2% rise. At 9.30 am we have UK CPI, PPI and Retail Price Index. This is followed at 11.00 am by US MBA Mortgage Applications and the UK CBI Trends Survey. Finally we have the FOMC Statement and Fed Chair Powell press conference at 6.00 pm and 6.30 pm respectively.
June S&P 500
Initially after the S&P hit my 2852 sell level I covered this position at my revised 2850.50 T/P level. Subsequently I emailed my Platinum Members to re-sell the S&P again at a price of 2858 before unfortunately covering this position way too early at 2855.50 and I am now flat. I must confess I did not see the S&P falling 30 Handles yesterday as the market recorded an Outside Down Day especially as we wait for the FOMC this evening. One explanation is that today is the astronomical ‘’Ides of March’’, which, before the Roman calendar, always meant a full moon in March. This year it coincides with the Spring Equinox which will occur four hours before the full moon/supermoon, making this the closest coincidence of the March Equinox and the moon since March 20, 2000. This of course was a major top in 2000 before the S&P fell 50%. Today I will leave my 2805/2818 buy level unchanged with the same 2797 stop. Given the extent of yesterday’s fall in the S&P I will now look to sell the market on any further rally to 2848/2859 with a 2867 stop.
EUR/USD
I am still flat the Euro with the same 1.1530/1.1570 sell level and 1.1615 stop. As we have the FOMC this evening I will now lower my buy level to 1.1250/1.1290 with a 1.1205 wider stop.
June Dollar Index
No Change as I am still a seller on any rally higher to 96.50/96.90 with the same 97.30 stop.
June DAX
Thankfully we have not been short the DAX over the past few weeks with the market making higher highs as the key 11800 resistance area was tested and closed over in yesterday’s session. Although the DAX is opening lower this morning I would not be a seller and today I will now raise my buy level to 11590/11650 with a 11545 tight stop.
June FTSE
The FTSE traded in a narrow range yesterday following Monday’s large rally and I am still flat. Today I will now raise my buy level slightly to 7115/7160 with a 7085 higher stop. I still do not want to be short the FTSE at this time.
Dow Rolling Contract
My Dow plan worked well with the market falling hard in the last two hours of trading to my 25820 buy level before rallying 90 points and I used this rally to cover my long position at my revised 25843 T/P level and I am now flat. I did some research on the Boeing share price yesterday. The Dow is a price-weighted Index and Boeing’s share price of approximately $372 per share makes it the most heavily weighted stock, currently comprising 9.73% of the Index. Boeing hit a high of $446 on March 1 after an incredible rally off its March 2009 price of just $29. Even in 2016 it was only trading at $109 so if we are to see a major correction in Boeing shares it has a long way to fall. Just looking at this huge run higher in Boeing shares over the past 10 years it shows how overvalued the Dow is at this time. Today the Dow has strong support from 25600/25750 and today I will be a buyer on any dip to this area with a 25495 stop. I still do not want to be short the Dow at this time despite the negative price action over the past 10 days.
June NASDAQ
My NASDAQ plan worked well with the market trading higher to my 7398 sell level before falling to my revised 7382 T/P level and I am now flat. Today I will be a seller of the NASDAQ on any further rally to 7410/7455 with a 7485 stop. I still do not want to be long the NASDAQ at this time.
June BUND
The BUND just missed my sell level before selling off yesterday and I am still flat. Today I will now lower my sell level to 164.45/164.85 with a 165.20 stop.
Gold Rolling Contract
No Change as I am still a buyer on any dip lower to 1283/1291 with the same 1275 stop.
Silver Rolling Contract
I am still flat Silver I will now lower my buy level slightly to 14.80/15.10 with a 14.45 stop. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 15.25.
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