U.S. Equity Markets fell from a record high as President Donald Trump said he could impose more tariffs on China, reminding investors that the trade spat remains unresolved. Treasuries dropped and the US Dollar rose. The S&P 500 Index halted a five-day rally, with energy producers joining an oil sell-off and technology giants facing an antitrust showdown with Congress. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. jumped on better-than-estimated results in its trading unit, and JP Morgan Chase & Co. rebounded from losses triggered by a disappointing lending outlook. Benchmark 10-year yields climbed on solid data, then pared their surge after Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said the central bank “will act as appropriate” amid increased uncertainties. Investors remained locked into the notion of a Fed rate cut this month even after strong Retail Sales, Factory Output and Housing data. While Powell’s remarks resembled his July 10-11 testimony to U.S. lawmakers, they continued to support the case for monetary easing amid risks stemming from Trump’s trade policies and slower global growth.
To mark my 1875th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2 year rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day To demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 45 points yesterday and is still ahead by 728 points for July, having made 1346 points in June,1722 points in May, 955 points in April, 1027 points in March, 1013 points in February and 1671 points in January. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1600 points
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Equities
The S&P 500 dipped 0.3% to 3,004 after making new highs in the previous five trading sessions markets ahead of more earnings from Bank of America today and the FOMC Meeting at the end of the month. In contrast European Bourses were stronger with the Stoxx Europe 600 Index adding 0.4%.
Currencies
Here is a summary of the main changes in F.X. Markets:
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index increased 0.4%.
The Euro declined 0.4% to $1.1209. It has now traded with a 1.12 Handle for the last two weeks.
More political woes saw the British Pound fall 0.9% to $1.2408, a new low for the year.
The Japanese Yen dipped 0.3% to 108.28 per dollar.
Bonds
U.S Bond Markets were quiet yesterday with the yield on 10-year Treasuries gaining three basis points to 2.11%. In Europe, Germany’s 10-year yield fell two basis points to -0.27%, while the UK Gilt rose two basis points to close at 0.821%.
Commodities
Bitcoin slid below $10,000 just three weeks after surging above it for the first time in more than a year as U.S. legislators expressed deep scepticism about the viability of cryptocurrencies. With the exception of Silver it was a weak day for Commodity markets with the Bloomberg Commodity Index falling 1.1%, led by oil. West Texas Intermediate crude sank to $57.62 a barrel.
This morning on the Economic Front we have UK CPI, PPI and the Retail Price Index at 9.30 am. This is followed at 10.00 am by Euro-Zone CPI and Construction Output. At 12.00 pm we have US MBA Mortgage Applications ahead of Housing Starts and Building Permits at 1.30 pm. Finally, at 7.00 pm we have the Fed’s Beige Book.
September S&P 500
Frustratingly the S&P just missed my 3003 buy level by a small margin before rallying on Powell’s speech who again indicated we will see a rate cut at the July 31 Meeting. Subsequently the market traded sideways to lower into the close and I am still flat. Internally this market continues to be weak with the McClellan Oscillator closing barley in positive territory with a +20 closing print. Today I will lower my sell level to 3023/3033 with a 3041 stop. I will also lower my buy level slightly to 2985/2995 with a 2978 stop.
EUR/USD
Following the release of the stronger than expected US Retail Sales the Euro sold off to my 1.1215 buy level. I am still long with a now lower 1.1235 T/P level. I will also raise my stop on this position to 1.1180. If I am stopped out of this position I will be a more aggressive buyer from 1.1080/1.1120 with a 1.1045 stop. If I am taken long a second time I will have a T/P level at 1.1165.
September Dollar Index
I am still flat the Dollar as the market closed 0.4% higher yesterday. Today I will raise my buy level to 96.00/96.40 with a higher 95.70 stop. The Dollar has strong resistance from 97.40/97.80 and I will be a seller in this area with a 98.25 stop.
September DAX
After a few soft trading sessions, the DAX bucked the trend yesterday as the 12250 again proved what an important support level it is as the DAX rallied to close at 12400 and I am still flat. Today I will raise my buy level to 12270/12330 with a 12225 stop.
September FTSE
The new lows for the year-to-date in Sterling helped the FTSE to rally yesterday and I am still flat. Today I will raise my buy level to 7410/7450 with a 7370 stop. I am reluctant to chase this market much higher given how oversold Sterling is with Cable now trading at 1.2385 as I go to press.
Dow Rolling Contract
The Dow just missed my 27405 sell level before falling 100 points and I am still flat on what is turning out to be the quietest trading month of the year so far. Ahead of the Beige Book I will again raise my sell level slightly to 27450/27600 with a 27680 tight stop. I still do not want to be long the Dow at this time.
September NASDAQ
I am still flat the NASDAQ and today I will now lower my sell level to 8015/8055 with a 8090 stop.
September BUND
I was lucky yesterday with my 172.40 short position as after the US Retail Sales were released the BUND traded lower to my 172.15 T/P level and I am now flat. Today I will again look to sell the market on any further rally to 172.90/173.30 with a 173.65 stop.
Gold Rolling Contract
Just before the New York close, Gold traded lower to my 1402 buy level. As I had no interest in holding this position overnight I emailed my Platinum Members to exit any long position at 1404 and I am now flat. This morning Gold is trying to hold the 1400 level but with the US Dollar stronger it is a tough ask. Today my only interest in buying Gold is on a dip lower to 1382/1392 with a 1376 tight stop.
Silver Rolling Contract
For the first time in many months we saw Silver outperform Gold as the market rose to close over 15.60. I am still flat and today I will now raise my buy level to 15.00/15.40 with a 14.65 stop. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 15.65.
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