US Indices ended Tuesday’s trading session with modest losses, in what was, once again, a day dominated by Middle East headlines with conflicting rhetoric. Markets initially, and for much of the day, followed President Trump’s comments last night that the “war would be over soon”, which sparked pronounced risk-on trade. Despite these comments, there was no suggestion of it coming to fruition on Tuesday, highlighted by Secretary of War Hegseth saying that Tuesday will be the most intense strikes on Iran yet. As such, and on the Trump comment Monday evening, trade was initially risk on with Gold and stocks gaining, Dollar and oil slumping, with the latters move helping Treasuries firm. Further extending the oil downside, and to session lows, was US Energy Secretary Wright saying, in a now deleted post, the US Navy has escorted an oil tanker through the Strait of Hormuz. As he deleted this post, and a White House official confirmed this was not true, the moves reversed. Thereafter, and further flipping the moves already seen on Tuesday, which saw equities pare all gains, was multiple reports that US intelligence has begun to see indications Iran is taking steps to deploy mines in the Strait of Hormuz shipping lane, which would be a significant escalation and also further threaten the supply of oil. Following this, which saw broad risk-averse moves, Trump posted on Truth that if Iran has put out any mines in the Hormuz Strait, they want them removed, IMMEDIATELY, and if they do not, military consequences to Iran will be at a level never seen before. If, on the other hand, they remove what may have been placed, it will be a giant step in the right direction!. Overall, and at the time of writing, the Dollar sees slight gains with the Australian Dollar, the clear G10 gainer, which it has been for the duration of the session, on hawkish RBA rhetoric, while Treasuries are now weaker and also hit by a dismal auction. Precious metals retain strength, but well off peaks, as attention remains around further Middle East developments and US CPI on Wednesday, albeit likely taking a backwards seat. Elsewhere, Oil closed lower by 11% while Gold ended the day with a 1.25% gain.
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