U.S. Indexes surged and oil prices tumbled after the US and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire, alongside Iran reopening the Strait of Hormuz, easing immediate supply concerns. The sharp decline in crude drove a broad cross-asset reaction, with equities rallying, the Treasury curve steepening, and front-end yields falling as inflation expectations eased and Fed rate hike bets pulled back. However, uncertainty around the durability of the agreement remained high. Reports of continued attacks in Iran and Lebanon, alongside disputes over the terms of the ceasefire, raised doubts about its effectiveness. Iranian officials claimed multiple breaches of the agreement, while the US and Israel disputed these claims, and tanker disruptions briefly re-emerged after Iran reportedly restricted traffic through Hormuz again. Despite this, markets largely held onto the risk-on tone, albeit off the extremes. In FX, the Dollar weakened against G10 peers, with the Antipodes outperforming, as the Kiwi was also aided by a hawkish RBNZ, while precious metals were bid as the decline in oil reduced expectations of further Fed tightening. The FOMC minutes reinforced the recent hawkish hold, while highlighting two-sided risks to the outlook amid geopolitical uncertainty. Meanwhile, the 10-year auction was mixed, with a rebound in direct demand offset by softer indirect participation, suggesting domestic demand improved while foreign demand moderated. Overall, the session was driven by a sharp repricing of energy-linked inflation risk, with markets leaning towards a less hawkish Fed outlook, although ongoing geopolitical uncertainty continues to cap conviction. The minutes of the FOMC’s March policy meeting broadly validate the hawkish hold but show a more explicit debate over two-sided risks beneath the unchanged decision. The key message from participants was that officials were not yet ready to react mechanically to the oil shock from the US-Iran war, with most judging it too early to know how developments in the Middle East would affect the economy and policy. Even so, the vast majority said progress back to 2% could now be slower and the risk of inflation remaining persistently above target had increased, perhaps explaining why the Fed held rates steady despite lifting its 2026 inflation outlook in the March SEP. Almost all saw the Funds Rate as broadly within plausible estimates of neutral after last year’s 75 basis points of easing, and said policy was well placed to wait for more evidence on the implications of the energy shock. Given the heightened degree of economic uncertainty, policy was framed as data-dependent rather than on a preset path. The Minutes are firmer than the Statement on possible hikes, with some seeing a strong case for two-sided guidance and many saying persistently higher oil prices could justify rate rises if inflation remained elevated, though cuts would still be more likely if inflation eased as expected. On the other side of the mandate, most still saw the labour market as broadly balanced, but the vast majority judged risks to employment to be skewed to the downside, and most warned that a prolonged conflict could weaken sentiment and hiring enough to warrant cuts. On the Middle East, since the March meeting, participants have generally said that any short-lived oil shock could be looked through, while a more prolonged disruption would raise the risk of energy feeding into core inflation and expectations. Meanwhile, discussion of the US Dollar described the currency as volatile, but roughly unchanged on net, with safe-haven flows and net energy exporter dynamics offering support. Elsewhere, Oil closed a whopping 17% lower while Gold ended the day basically flat following a volatile trading session.
To mark my 3350th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2-Year Rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day to demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 585 points yesterday and is now ahead by 1850 points for April after ending March with a massive gain of 9002 points, having closed February with a strong gain of 5482 points after ending January with a gain of 4757 points, having closed December with a gain of 2599 points, after ending the month of November with a gain of 4542 points, after ending October with a nice gain of 5110 points after closing September with a gain of 3774 points while ending August with a gain of 3362 points after closing July with a gain of 3753 points after closing June with a gain of 3530 points, having closed May with a gain of 3606 points, after closing April with a gain of 7685 points after closing March with a gain of 2254 points while closing February with a gain of 4180 points. January ended with a gain of 2768 points while 1997 points were gained in December. October ended with a gain of 2179 points, after closing September with a gain of 4402 points, following a loss of 301 points in August. July gained 1908 points while June saw a gain of 2074 points. The Platinum Service made a record 9619 points in October 2022. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 2300 points. I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking HERE Please subscribe to this for new interview notification
Equities
The S&P 500 closed 2.51% higher at a price of 6782.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 1325 points lower for a 2.85% gain at a price of 47,909.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 2.90% higher at a price of 24,903.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 3.88% lower.
Yesterday, the MSCI Asia Pacific closed 2.3% higher.
Yesterday, the Nikkei closed 5.39% higher at a price of 56,308.
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.97% lower.
The Euro closed 0.72% higher at $1.1680.
The British Pound closed 0.92% higher at $1.3422.
The Japanese Yen rose 0.71% closing at $158.46.
Bonds
U.K.’s 10-Year Gilt closed 25 basis points lower at 4.65%.
Germany’s 10-Year Bund Yield closed 14 basis points lower at 2.95%
U.S.10 Year Treasury closed 2 basis points lower at 4.28%.
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude closed 16.88% lower at $93.88 a barrel.
Gold closed 0.34% higher at $4725.10 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front we have the German Trade Balance at 7.00 am. Next, we have U.S. Weekly Jobless Claims, GDP and PCE at 1.30 pm. This is followed by Wholesale Inventories at 3.00 pm. Finally, we have a Thirty -Year Treasury Auction at 6.00 pm and the Fed’s Balance Sheet at 6.30 pm.
Cash S&P 500
Despite the fragile truce the S&P still managed to close Wednesday with a gain of 2.5%. For such a spike higher there was very little price action following the massive gap higher. We now have a huge ‘Open Gap’ from Tuesday’s 6616 Chicago close to yesterday’s 6741 afternoon low. Remember all ‘Open Gaps’ are eventually filled. The VIX closed a huge 18% lower for one of the largest daily percentage falls in history. Yesterday my S&P plan worked well as the market rallied to my second sell level at 6784 for a 6771 average short position before selling off to my not too aggressive T/P level at 6743 and I am still flat. As I said to my Platinum Members yesterday that I do not see oil falling below $80 anytime soon and this will continue to put pressure on inflation. Remember stocks are extremely overvalued and are due a more meaningful correction. The S&P has resistance from 6793/6815 where I will again be a seller with a 6833 ‘Closing Stop’. The 200-Day Moving Average has moved higher to a price of 6655 and any initial tag of the key support level will be met by strong buying. Therefore, I will be a buyer from 6640/6665 with a 6619 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 6763. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 6701. If any of these views change, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
EUR/USD
I am still flat as the Euro spiked higher, never coming close to Wednesday’s buy range. I will now raise my buy level to 1.1480/1.1560 with a higher 1.1425 tight ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 1.1620. I still do not want to be short the Euro at this time.
Dollar Index
The weakness in the Dollar saw the market hit my buy range for a now 98.65 long position. I will continue to look to add to this position at 97.95 while lowering my T/P level to 99.40. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Russell 2000
The Russell just missed Wednesday’s sell range before having a small sell-off into the close. I will not chase the market lower as I continue to be a seller from 2660/2710 with the same 2765 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 2610.
FTSE 100
The FTSE hit my second sell level at 10700 for an average 10650 short position. Subsequently, the FTSE traded lower to my revised 10610 T/P level and I am now flat. Today, I will again be a seller from 10710/10810 with a higher 10905 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 10630.
Dow Rolling Contract
The Dow surged an incredible 1400 points on Wednesday and I am still flat as thankfully we had no sell level. Yesterday’s move higher found resistance at the 50 Day Moving Average which comes in this morning at a price of 48017. Today, I will be a small seller from 48100/48400 with a 48605 ‘Closing Stop’. I will wait for a decent correction before initiating a long position.
Cash NASDAQ 100
My NDX plan worked well as the market rallied to my second sell level at 25050 for a 24975 average short position. Subsequently, the NDX sold off to my revised 24830 T/P level and I am now flat. The NDX has resistance from 25050/25250 where I will be a small seller with a higher 25405 tight ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 24890. I no longer want to be long the NDX at these levels without a meaningful correction first.
December BUND
My latest 125.40 long Bund position as the market opened above my T/P level for an exit level at 126.60 and I am now flat. The aggressive fall in Bond Yields is in my view overdone as inflation will not fall anytime soon. The Bund has support below from 125.40/126.10 where I will again be a buyer with a higher 124.55 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 126.70. I still do not want to be short the Bund at this time
Gold Rolling Contract
No Change: Unfortunately, I have no edge in Gold at this time. Gold had its weakest month since 2008 despite yesterday’s 3.5% rally. I do not trust the rally in Gold. My only interest in buying Gold is on a dip lower to 4280/4380 with the same 4195 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 4470. If this view changes, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Silver Rolling Contract
No Change: I am still flat. I will continue to stay flat Silver until I feel I have a better edge. This is no harm given the extraordinary volatility that we are witnessing at this time. If this view changes, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Please Note: There will be no Daily Commentary tomorrow. Any of my calls that are not executed today and are subsequently triggered on Friday will see me return with updated emails for my Platinum Members.
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