U.S. Indexes were predominantly firmer on Monday, with the NASDAQ 100 recovering some of the sharp losses seen in the latter half of last week, while the S&P 500 posted modest gains. The Dow closed little changed and the Russell 2000 also finished in positive territory. Market breadth was weak, however, with Technology accounting for most of the upside while the majority of sectors closed lower. Utilities and Real Estate led the declines after outperforming during last week’s risk-off trade. Within Technology, Intel (INTC) was a standout performer after The Information reported that Alphabet (GOOGL) and Nvidia (NVDA) are evaluating the company as a secondary manufacturing partner. Elsewhere, the Memory ETF (DRAM) rebounded around 8%, while the Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) gained roughly 6%, recovering part of last week’s sharp declines. Meanwhile, Apple held its WWDC, where it unveiled the updated Siri AI. The feature will be available later this year, although it will not be available in China due to regulatory issues, seeing the stock close lower. Crude prices settled higher following a fresh exchange of strikes between Israel and Iran over the weekend. The escalation saw oil gap higher at the reopen of trade. However, President Trump later called on both sides to exercise restraint, helping reduce some of the geopolitical risk premium. Reports during the European session suggested the US and Israel had agreed not to strike Iran, while Iran had agreed to suspend military operations against Israel, although Tehran warned it would respond should Israeli attacks on Hezbollah in Lebanon continue. The apparent pause in hostilities helped crude prices retrace much of the overnight rally. Treasury markets largely tracked the move in energy, with yields reaching session highs overnight before gradually paring through the day to finish little changed across much of the curve. The Dollar was also little changed overall, with the New Zealand Dollar outperforming and the Swiss Franc lagging, likely reflecting the improvement in equity sentiment. Attention this week remains on both geopolitics and US inflation data. CPI and PPI will be closely watched for clues on the Fed’s reaction function. While the reports are unlikely to materially alter expectations for the June 17th FOMC meeting, Kevin Warsh’s first as Chair, they could have a greater influence on pricing further out the curve. Markets are currently pricing around a 69% probability of a 25 basis point rate hike by October, with a full hike discounted by year-end. Another hot inflation report could strengthen the case for more officials to align with the hawks in removing the easing bias from the policy statement, particularly following the strong April Payrolls Report. The NY Fed’s Survey of Consumer Expectations for May showed one-year ahead inflation expectations easing to 3.5% from 3.6%, while three- and five-year expectations were unchanged at 3.1% and 3.0%, respectively. Elsewhere, expectations for future credit availability deteriorated, with a smaller share of respondents expecting it will be easier to obtain credit over the next year. Perceptions of current credit access compared to a year ago were largely unchanged. Labour market expectations softened. The perceived probability of finding a job after losing one’s current job fell 2.3ppts to 43.7%, the lowest reading since December 2025 and below the 12-month average of 46.8%. Meanwhile, the perceived probability of losing one’s job over the next year rose 0.5ppts to 15.1%, above the 12-month average of 14.4%. Overall, the survey pointed to a modest deterioration in household sentiment. Short-term inflation expectations eased, while medium- and longer-term inflation expectations remained stable. However, labour market expectations weakened, with respondents becoming less confident about finding work and slightly more concerned about job losses. Expectations surrounding future credit availability, household finances and delinquency rates also deteriorated, while home price growth expectations increased. Elsewhere, Oil closed higher by 1% while Gold was flat.
To mark my 3375th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2-Year Rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day to demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 340 points yesterday and is now ahead by 1957 points for June after ending May with a loss of 1104 points, having ended April with a gain of 1730 points, after ending March with a massive gain of 9002 points, having closed February with a strong gain of 5482 points after ending January with a gain of 4757 points, having closed December with a gain of 2599 points, after ending the month of November with a gain of 4542 points, after ending October with a nice gain of 5110 points after closing September with a gain of 3774 points while ending August with a gain of 3362 points after closing July with a gain of 3753 points after closing June with a gain of 3530 points, having closed May with a gain of 3606 points, after closing April with a gain of 7685 points after closing March with a gain of 2254 points while closing February with a gain of 4180 points. January ended with a gain of 2768 points while 1997 points were gained in December. October ended with a gain of 2179 points, after closing September with a gain of 4402 points, following a loss of 301 points in August. July gained 1908 points while June saw a gain of 2074 points. The Platinum Service made a record 9619 points in October 2022. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 2300 points. I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking HERE Please subscribe to this for new interview notification
Equities
The S&P 500 closed 0.30% higher at a price of 7405.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 80 points lower for a 0.16% loss at a price of 50,786.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 1.58% higher at a price of 29,414.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 0.15% lower.
This Morning, the MSCI Asia Pacific closed 0.9% higher.
This Morning, the Nikkei closed 1.96% higher at a price of 65,261.
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.04% lower.
The Euro closed 0.06% higher at $1.1533.
The British Pound closed 0.03% higher at $1.3342.
The Japanese Yen fell 0.02% closing at $160.17.
Bonds
U.K.’s 10-Year Gilt closed 3 basis points higher at 4.94%.
Germany’s 10-Year Bund Yield closed 3 basis points higher at 3.06%
U.S.10 Year Treasury closed 3 basis points higher at 4.57%.
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude closed 0.96% higher at $91.41 a barrel.
Gold closed 0.12% higher at $4325.10 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic front we already had the release of German Industrial Production which rose 0.4% versus +0.5% expected. Next, we have U.S. NFIB Small Business Optimism Index at 11.00 am and the Trade Balance at 1.30 pm. At 3.00 pm we have Existing Home Sales and Wholesale Inventories at 3.00 pm. Finally, we have a speech from ECB president Lagarde at 5.30 pm and a Three-Year Treasury Auction at 6.00 pm which will be watched closely following the rise in rates over the past week.
Cash S&P 500
The S&P 500 finished Monday’s session with a 0.3% gain, which was a rather unimpressive showing for the S&P 500 given Friday’s sizeable decline. Additionally, implied volatility melted lower on Monday, with the VIX 1-Day falling by more than 12 points to close around 16, down from roughly 28. In reality, it was the rebound in semiconductor stocks that helped keep the index from finishing in the red. Even so, the S&P 500 stalled at its 20-day exponential moving average (7452), suggesting that resistance remains intact for now. The S&P traded in a narrow range before falling over 60 Handles into the close after finding strong resistance at the 20-Day MA. The USK/KRW fell a sizeable 2% on Monday on rumours that a Pension Fund was hedging its exposure to US Dollars. That is a very large move for a currency and could prove important to watch in the context of the AI trade, especially given how much the Korean market has rallied over the past few months. A weaker Won tends to benefit exporters, and we also know that Korean investment in U.S. assets has surged in recent years. As a result, a rising USD/KRW is generally consistent with investors selling won, buying U.S. dollars, and using those dollars to purchase U.S. assets. Conversely, if investors are selling U.S. assets and repatriating capital to Korea, one would expect USD/KRW to fall as USD is sold and KRW is purchased. That makes Monday’s move particularly interesting because, if sustained, it could signal a shift in capital flows with implications beyond the currency market. Finally, the CPI report will be released on Wednesday, and my guess is that the market will take this report more seriously than it did the jobs report, which probably means the VIX 1-day won’t close Tuesday higher than 12. As of yesterday, CPI swaps are pricing in headline inflation at 4.27%, which rounds to 4.3%, compared with the consensus analyst estimate of 4.2%. That is something worth paying attention to and monitoring closely to see whether CPI swap pricing moves lower or analysts’ estimates move higher ahead of the release. My S&P plan worked well on Monday as the market rallied to my 7454-sell level before selling off to my 7420 T/P level and I am now flat. Today, I will again be a seller on any further rally to 7480/7505 with a higher 7527 ‘Closing Stop’. The S&P has a large ‘Open Gap’ from last month from 7257/7297. Any tag of this range will see me becoming an aggressive buyer. Therefore, I will be a buyer from 7285/7315 with a wider 7255 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 7452. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 7359. If this view changes, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
EUR/USD
I am still long the Euro from last Friday at a price of 1.1520. I will add to this trade at 1.1440 while leaving my 1.1365 ‘Closing Stop’ unchanged. I will also lower my T/P level to 1.1580. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Dollar Index
No Change: Today, I will again be a buyer of the Dollar on any dip lower 99.00/99.70 with the same 98.25 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 100.40. I still do not want to be short the Dollar at this time.
Russell 2000
Monday’s aggressive rally saw the Russell hit my sell range for a now 2860 short position. I will raise my T/P level to 2810. I will look to add to this position at 2920 while leaving my 2975 Closing Stop’ unchanged. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
FTSE 100
I am still flat as the FTSE never came close to Monday’s buy range. Today, I will raise my buy level to 10150/10230 with a higher 10055 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 10295.
Dow Rolling Contract
I am still flat as the Dow never came close to Monday’s buy range. As I am away for the rest of the week, I have no interest in chasing the market higher. Therefore, I will continue to be a strong buyer on any dip lower to 50000/50300 with the same 49795 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 50620. I still do not want to be short the Dow at this time.
Cash NASDAQ 100
At one stage yesterday the NDX had recovered over 800 points from Friday’s losses before a late sell-off saw 300 points off these gains erased into the close. The end result was a 1.5% gain for the NDX on Monday. Today, I will be a small seller from 29830/30030 with a tight 30205 ‘Closing Stop’. The NDX has strong support below from 28550/28750. I will now raise my buy level to this area with a higher 28295 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 29490. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 28990. If any of these views change, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
December BUND
No Change: I am still flat as the Bund never came close to Monday’s buy/ sell range. Today, I will again be a seller from 126.40/127.10 with the same 127.85 ‘Closing Stop’. If triggered, I will have a T/P level at 125.90. The Bund has short-term support below from 123.80/124.60 where I will be a strong buyer with a 123.15 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 125.30.
Gold Rolling Contract
I am still long Gold from last Friday at a price of 4320. I will add to this trade at 4220 while leaving my 4095 ‘Closing Stop’ unchanged. I will now lower my T/P level to 4385. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Silver Rolling Contract
I am still flat. Today, I will continue to be a buyer on any dip lower to 62.00/65.00 with the same 60.55 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 67.80. If this view changes, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Recent Comments