U.S. Indexes were hit hard on Friday, with the NASDAQ 100 the clear laggard, falling more than 4% as technology stocks remained under pressure. Broadcom (AVGO) extended losses following its earnings report earlier in the week, while additional weakness came after the FT reported that Meta (META) is considering raising tens of billions of dollars through a stock offering. As a result, Technology was the clear sectoral laggard, followed by Consumer Discretionary and Communication Services. However, the main macro driver of the session was the stronger-than-expected US jobs report, which set the tone for trading throughout the day and reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve may need to maintain a restrictive policy stance for longer. Non-Farm Payrolls rose by 172k in May, well above the 85k consensus forecast, while April was revised higher to 179k from the initially reported 115k. The report prompted a hawkish repricing in rates markets, with traders now fully pricing a 25 basis point Fed rate hike by year-end, compared with around 16bps of tightening priced before the release. As a reminder, the Fed enters its blackout period this weekend ahead of the June 17th meeting. The stronger labour market data drove broad Dollar strength, weighing on most G10 currencies. The Antipodes underperformed amid both the stronger Dollar and weaker risk sentiment, while the Canadian Dollar was among the outperformers following its own strong employment report. Treasuries bear flattened in response to the payrolls data as traders boosted Fed hike expectations, while precious metals came under notable pressure from the combination of higher yields and a stronger Dollar. Meanwhile, crude prices softened amid the absence of any fresh escalation between the US and Iran heading into the weekend. Negotiations remain ongoing, with reports continuing to point to disagreements over key issues, although Axios suggested the remaining gaps between the two sides are narrowing. The US payrolls report for May was notably stronger than expected, with Non-Farm Payrolls rising by 172k (exp. 85k), above the top end of the consensus range. April’s figure was revised up to 179k from 115k, while March was revised up by 29k to 214k. This left the two-month net revisions +93k (prev. -16k). The Unemployment Rate was unchanged at 4.3%, in line with expectations, while the participation rate also held steady at 61.8%. Looking at the breakdown, private payrolls surged 120k (exp. 85k, prev. 177k), Government rose 52k (prev. 2k), and manufacturing was little changed at 7k (exp. 2k prev. 0k). Leisure and hospitality added 70k jobs in May, well above the average monthly gain of 14,000 over the prior 12 months, likely due to the World Cup. Earnings metrics were in line with St. consensus, M/M at +0.3% (prev. +0.2%) and Y/Y at 3.4% (prev. 3.6%). For the Fed, the report is unlikely to materially alter expectations for the 17th of June meeting, where policymakers are widely expected to leave rates unchanged. However, it strengthens the case that the next move in rates would be higher rather than lower. That shift has already been reflected in money market pricing, with markets now pricing in a 25bps rate increase by year-end, compared with 16bps before the data. The Fed has remained more focused on inflation risks than labour market weakness, particularly given the resilience of employment conditions, and this report is likely to reinforce that view. The 17th of June meeting will also be Kevin Warsh’s first as Fed chair following his appointment by Trump, who has repeatedly expressed a preference for lower interest rates. Fed Member Hammack said it is reasonable to keep rates steady for now, but if recent trends continue it could be appropriate to act against high inflation. Hammack added, while she never makes too much of any one data point, Friday’s jobs report reaffirms that the labour market appears to be roughly in balance, and u/e rate remaining stable at 4.3% is right around her definition of full employment. The Cleveland Fed President noted, by contrast, inflation is telling a different story… it is high, moving higher, and believe persistently high inflation is the bigger concern. Ahead, Hammack noted for today, it is reasonable to keep rates steady given the uncertainties around the economic outlook. But if recent trends continue, it may soon be appropriate to act. Elsewhere, Oil closed lower by 2.5% while Gold ended Friday’s volatile trading session with a loss of 3.5%. Meanwhile, Silver fell a whopping 7.5%.
To mark my 3375th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2-Year Rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day to demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 907 points on Friday and is now ahead by 1617 points for June after ending May with a loss of 1104 points, having ended April with a gain of 1730 points, after ending March with a massive gain of 9002 points, having closed February with a strong gain of 5482 points after ending January with a gain of 4757 points, having closed December with a gain of 2599 points, after ending the month of November with a gain of 4542 points, after ending October with a nice gain of 5110 points after closing September with a gain of 3774 points while ending August with a gain of 3362 points after closing July with a gain of 3753 points after closing June with a gain of 3530 points, having closed May with a gain of 3606 points, after closing April with a gain of 7685 points after closing March with a gain of 2254 points while closing February with a gain of 4180 points. January ended with a gain of 2768 points while 1997 points were gained in December. October ended with a gain of 2179 points, after closing September with a gain of 4402 points, following a loss of 301 points in August. July gained 1908 points while June saw a gain of 2074 points. The Platinum Service made a record 9619 points in October 2022. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 2300 points. I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking HERE Please subscribe to this for new interview notification
Equities
The S&P 500 closed 2.64% lower at a price of 7383.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 695 points lower for a 1.35% loss at a price of 50,781.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 4.77% lower at a price of 28,957.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 0.29% lower.
Last Friday, the MSCI Asia Pacific closed 0.9% lower.
Last Friday, the Nikkei closed 1.31% lower at a price of 66,588.
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.65% higher.
The Euro closed 0.74% lower at $1.1523.
The British Pound closed 0.63% lower at $1.3337.
The Japanese Yen fell 0.05% closing at $160.13.
Bonds
U.K.’s 10-Year Gilt closed 3 basis points lower at 4.91%.
Germany’s 10-Year Bund Yield closed 1 basis points lower at 3.03%
U.S.10 Year Treasury closed 5 basis points higher at 4.54%.
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude closed 2.58% lower at $90.64 a barrel.
Gold closed 3.45% lower at $4320.10 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic front we have German Factory Orders at 7.00am, followed by Euro-Zone Sentix Investor Confidence at 9.30 am. Next, we have U.S. CB Employment Trends Index at 3.00 pm. Finally, we have the New York Fed 1-year Consumer Inflation Expectations at 4.30 pm.
Cash S&P 500
The S&P 500 finished Friday’s session lower by a hefty 2.64%
. Investors were euphoric last week as all four main American Indexes rallied to new all-time highs before getting slammed on Friday. The Advance-Decline Line did not confirm the new highs indicating a narrow advance driven by a handful of semiconductor stocks. Another warning sign was Investor Sentiment at a multi-decade bullish extreme. Finally, these extreme readings caught up on Friday leading to a whopping 5% fall in the NDX which was its largest daily move lower in over a year. As the stock market was rallying to new highs the global economy is slowly cascading off the rails. Notching a second consecutive Quarterly decline in GDP, Canada has by popular definition entered a recession. On Monday the Governor of the Bank of Canada cautioned ‘’against concluding the county is in recession’’. Apparently in this case, a half year of declining output is not enough to draw any conclusion. Bloomberg reports that economists are also avoiding the ‘’recession label’’. They always do until well after the fact. In the U.S. investors are in speculative euphoria, so there is no concern about long-developing imbalances in its economy, which accounts for more than 25% of global economic output. In my opinion the American economy will finally contract when the stock market turns lower. As yet it has not – even though Friday is a good start. However, the 70-year old University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, which fell to an all-time low in May implying that the American people who took this survey are even more depressed that they were in the Great Recession and during the Bear Market of the 1970s. The Final May reading in the U of M Consumer Sentiment Index was 44.8, down a hefty 10% from the April reading, which was also a record low. The S&P 500 was down about 0.75% on Tuesday the 3rd, recovered some on Wednesday the 4th, and then fell about 2.6% on Friday the 5th. The Nasdaq fell nearly 4.75% on Friday. Understanding the mechanics of the market was really the warning that this was getting overheated — and was not going to end well once it broke. Whether or not Friday is a one-day event is hard to say. Typically, you see some form of follow-through early in the week after big moves on Friday. Volatility levels also went out fairly high, so we will have to take a look at those as well. The VIX closed a whopping 40% higher on Friday at a price of 21.51. This is the largest move higher in the VIX since April 2025. I had flagged that there were major risks last week around Broadcom — that implied volatility was very high, that positioning was very much to the call side. I even noted that Broadcom could mark a change in trend in dispersion. Too early to say whether or not that is definitively the case, but the stock fell about 8% Friday following a roughly 12.5% decline on Thursday. So, you are seeing the aftereffects of Broadcom’s earnings still playing out. Ultimately, the positioning in semiconductors is largely responsible for a lot of the violence on Friday. That is not to say the market would not have been down — you had a hot jobs report, and major repricing of where the Fed really goes this year. What stood out from Friday’s trading session is that two-year rates went up, and they never came down. They went up following the jobs report on Friday morning, and they never gave back any of those gains. That is important because normally, when you see a big sell-off in stocks, you expect a flight to safety — you go into Treasuries. You did not get that on Friday. The two-year closed at its highest rate since February 2025. The ten-year also moved up about 6 basis points on Friday and held the majority of those gains. The curve even inverted a little, which I think is more of a sign that maybe the Fed is going to have to start raising rates. How much the curve inverts from here will tell us how much confidence the market has in that idea. President Trump wants rate cuts, and Kevin Warsh was hired in part on the premise of potentially delivering them. But the market’s telling you are not going to get rate cuts — at least not this year, not based on the information we have at hand. The market is now leaning on the idea that maybe you are going to get a rate hike. Fed-funds Futures at 3.86 sit within the midpoint of a 3.75% to 4% rate, which would be higher than the current 3.50% to 3.75% corridor. That is not pricing a 100% probability of a hike — it is pricing that the Fed may have to raise rates. By December 2028 the picture is very different, with the rate around 4.16%. So whatever cycle we are in right now, the market sees rates more likely than not going higher at some point. That brings focus onto a CPI report this week that is expected to be hot. It is going to be an important read — not just the headline but also what is beneath it: where the signs of inflation are leaking through to the rest of the economy. TBD. After the S&P hit my 7590 sell level on Thursday, I unfortunately covered this position too early at 7575 as I wanted to be flat ahead of Friday’s NFP Report. Subsequently, the S&P hit my 7499 buy level before rallying to my revised 7519 T/P level and I am now flat. I was lucky with my 3.00 pm exit on Friday as the S&P subsequently fell 150 Handles. The S&P has a large ‘Open Gap’ from last month from 7257/7297. Any tag of this range will see me become an aggressive buyer. Therefore, I will be a buyer from 7285/7315 with a wider 7255 ‘Closing Stop’. The S&P has short-term resistance from 7450/7470 where I will be a small seller with a 7495 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 7359. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 7420.
EUR/USD
The Euro got hit hard on Friday, finally hitting my buy range for a now 1.1520 long position. I will add to this trade at 1.1440 with a now lower 1.1365 ‘Closing Stop’. I will also lower my T/P level to 1.1590. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Dollar Index
My Dollar plan worked well as the market sold off to my 99.20 buy level before rallying to my revised 99.72 T/P level and I am now flat. The Dollar soared on Friday, closing at a price of 100.10. Today, I will again be a buyer of the Dollar on any dip lower 99.00/99.80 with a higher 98.25 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 100.40.
Russell 2000
Friday’s aggressive sell-off saw the Russell trade lower to my 2855 T/P level on my 2890 average short position and I am now flat. The Russell has short-term resistance from 2850/2920 where I will again be a seller with the same 2975 Closing Stop’. If triggered, I will have a T/P level at 2790.
FTSE 100
Despite Friday’s aggressive sell-off in American Indexes the FTSE traded in a narrow range. Today, I will lower my buy level to 10080/10160 with a lower 9995 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 10240.
Dow Rolling Contract
I am still flat. Today, I will lower my Dow buy level to 50000/50300 with a lower 49795 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 50620. I still do not want to be short the Dow at this time.
Cash NASDAQ 100
With Friday’s historic plunge in the NASDAQ Comp (down 1121 points, its largest point decline ever), many traders who jumped into tech stocks lately are wondering if their biggest fear is now coming true as to whether the AI Bubble just burst. TBD. My NDX plan worked well as the market sold off to my 30250 T/P level on my latest 30430 average short position. Subsequently, I emailed my Platinum Members to sell the NDX again at a price at 30500 before unfortunately covering this position at 30350 and I am still flat. The NDX is now short-term oversold following Friday’s record point sell-off. The NDX has short-term support from 28350/28550 where I will be a buyer with a wider 28095 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 28870.
December BUND
No Change: I am still flat as the Bund never came close to Thursday’s buy/ sell range. Today, I will again be a seller from 126.40/127.10 with the same 127.85 ‘Closing Stop’. If triggered, I will have a T/P level at 125.90. The Bund has short-term support below from 123.80/124.60 where I will be a strong buyer with a 123.15 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 125.30.
Gold Rolling Contract
Late Friday, Gold traded lower to my buy range for a now 4320 long position. I will add to this trade at 4220 with a now lower 4095 ‘Closing Stop’. I will now lower my T/P level to 4405. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Silver Rolling Contract
Thankfully, Silver rallied to my revised 73.96 T/P level on my latest 72.60 long position before getting hit hard on Friday – closing lower by a whopping 7.5%. Silver has short-term support from 62.00/65.00 where I will be an aggressive buyer with a lower 60.55 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 67.80. If this view changes, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
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