U.S. Indexes returned from the Easter weekend in positive territory, while yields rose and oil firmed. Markets had much to digest after Friday’s stronger-than-expected Non-Farm Payrolls report, which helped ease recent labour market concerns. Focus remained on the Middle East, however, with US President Donald Trump giving Iran until Tuesday at 20:00 EDT to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and reach a deal or face US strikes on Iranian energy and power facilities, as well as bridges across the country. War Secretary Hegseth said Monday had seen the highest volume of strikes on Iran so far and that Tuesday would be even larger. Trump said that, if Iran did not meet the deadline, the US would take out Iran within four hours. Despite the threats, markets were more optimistic about the prospects for a deal after Trump said negotiators in Iran wanted to reach one, despite earlier pushback from Iran’s Foreign Ministry. Iran had rejected a 45-day ceasefire proposal from the United States and responded with a 10-point plan, but Trump said that was not good enough. Oil settled higher but well below overnight peaks in volatile trade, and also well above lows seen during the European morning. Treasury yields bear-flattened on higher oil prices and in response to Friday’s payrolls report, with the cash market closed that day. US ISM services PMI data disappointed on the headline, but the main takeaway was a surge in the Prices Paid component and a drop in the Employment Index. In FX, the Japanese Yen underperformed as US Treasury Yields rose, while the Dollar also lagged peers and the Antipodean currencies led gains. Gold fell, Silver was flat and Bitcoin rose. The focus this week is largely on Trump’s deadline and whether some kind of deal can be reached, while FOMC Minutes, US CPI, PCE and Treasury auctions will also be watched. The headline PMI fell to 54.0 from 56.1, below the 55 forecast. The components saw business activity fall to 53.9 from 59.9, although new orders rose to 60.6 from 58.6. When looking at the prices and employment PMIs, both were concerning for the Fed. Prices Paid surged to 70.7 from 63.0 (reminder, March CPI is due on Friday) while the employment PMI dropped to 45.2 (albeit the March NFP was strong). Within the report, it highlighted that the data indicates a 1.9% increase in real GDP on an annualised basis. However, ING suggests it is consistent with a rise of 2.5% when compared with the manufacturing PMI. Also, the ISM Services PMI questions saw companies note how they are purchasing additional inventory to account for geopolitical issues, with oil derivative products being stockpiled in case of an extended conflict or closure of Hormuz. On the reopen of cash trade, Friday’s NFP report supported the bear flattening, with the US adding 178k jobs in March, well above the 60k forecast and exceeding the most optimistic estimates. The Unemployment Rate fell to 4.3% from 4.4%, although the participation rate declined to 61.9%. The stronger report helped offset concerns following February’s weakness, though volatility in the data this year keeps focus on upcoming releases. Elsewhere, Oil closed 2.3% higher while Gold was soft, ending Monday’s session with a 0.5% fall.
To mark my 3350th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2-Year Rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day to demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 545 points yesterday and is now ahead by 1205 points for April after ending March with a massive gain of 9002 points, having closed February with a strong gain of 5482 points after ending January with a gain of 4757 points, having closed December with a gain of 2599 points, after ending the month of November with a gain of 4542 points, after ending October with a nice gain of 5110 points after closing September with a gain of 3774 points while ending August with a gain of 3362 points after closing July with a gain of 3753 points after closing June with a gain of 3530 points, having closed May with a gain of 3606 points, after closing April with a gain of 7685 points after closing March with a gain of 2254 points while closing February with a gain of 4180 points. January ended with a gain of 2768 points while 1997 points were gained in December. October ended with a gain of 2179 points, after closing September with a gain of 4402 points, following a loss of 301 points in August. July gained 1908 points while June saw a gain of 2074 points. The Platinum Service made a record 9619 points in October 2022. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 2300 points. I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking HERE Please subscribe to this for new interview notification
Equities
The S&P 500 closed 0.44% higher at a price of 6611.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 165 points higher for a 0.36% gain at a price of 46,669.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 0.61% higher at a price of 24,192.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 2.50% higher.
Yesterday, the MSCI Asia Pacific closed 0.4% higher.
Yesterday, the Nikkei closed 0.55% higher at a price of 53,413.
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.01% lower.
The Euro closed 0.21% higher at $1.1541.
The British Pound closed 0.27% higher at $1.3227.
The Japanese Yen fell 0.35% closing at $159.76.
Bonds
U.K.’s 10-Year Gilt closed 8 basis points lower at 4.78%.
Germany’s 10-Year Bund Yield closed 1 basis points higher at 2.99%
U.S.10 Year Treasury closed 2 basis points higher at 4.34%.
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude closed 2.31% higher at $114.10 a barrel.
Gold closed 0.49% lower at $4654.10 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front we have the German, Euro-Zone and UK Composite PMI at 8.55 am, 9.00 am and 9.30 am respectively. Next, we have Euro-Zone Economic Bulletin at 10.00 am, followed by U.S. ADP Employment Change at 1.15 pm. This is followed by Durable Goods Orders at 1.30 pm and the New York Fed 1-year Consumer Inflation at 4.00 pm. Finally, we have a speech from Fed Member Goolsbee at 5.35 pm and a Three-Year Treasury Auction at 6.00 pm.
Cash S&P 500
Plenty of two-way price action on Thursday was followed by a dull session yesterday as the market goes on hold ahead of tonight’s Iran deadline. Unfortunately, the S&P just missed my 6455-buy level with a 6464 low print before rallying almost 160 Handles and I am still flat. The 200 Day Moving Average comes in at a price of 6647 this morning. Today, I will continue to be a seller on any further rally to 6647/6672 with the same 6693 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 6622. The S&P has short-term support below from 6480/6505. I will now raise my buy level to this area with a higher 6457 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 6543. If any of these view change, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
EUR/USD
The Euro traded lower to my buy range for a now 1.1510 long position. I will continue to look to add to this position at 1.1440 while leaving my 1.1385 ‘Closing Stop’ unchanged. I will now lower my T/P level to 1.1570. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Dollar Index
I am still flat as the Dollar continues to trade in narrow daily ranges. Today, I will continue to be a seller from 100.40/101.20 with the same 101.95 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 99.80.
Russell 2000
My Russell plan worked well as the market sold off to my 2460 buy level before rallying to my 2505 T/P level and I am now flat. Today, I will again be a buyer on any dip lower to 2410/2470 with a higher 2355 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 2515.
FTSE 100
My latest 10380 average short position worked well with the market selling off to my 10270 T/P level and I am still flat. The FTSE has short-term resistance from 10550/10650 where I will again be a seller with a higher 10725 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 10460. I still do not want to be long the FTSE at this time.
Dow Rolling Contract
My Dow plan worked well. The Dow sold off to my 45940-buy level before rallying to my revised 46330 T/P level and I am still flat. The Dow continues to attract buying on any dip. The Dow has short-term support below from 45900/46200 where I will again be a buyer with a higher 45695 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 46520. Despite the insane price of oil, I still do not want to be short the Dow at this time.
Cash NASDAQ 100
Frustratingly, the NDX missed Thursday’s buy range by just 10 points before rallying over 400 points higher off its 23490 low print and I am still flat. Today, I will raise my buy level to 23350/23650 with a higher 23195 ‘Closing Stop’. Meanwhile, I will continue to be a seller from 24420/24720 with the same 24905 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 23870. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 24180. If any of these views change, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
December BUND
No Change: Today, I will again be a buyer of the Bund from 124.80/125.60 with the same 124.15 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 126.20.
Gold Rolling Contract
No Change: Unfortunately, I have no edge in Gold at this time. Gold had its weakest month since 2008 despite yesterday’s 3.5% rally. I do not trust the rally in Gold. My only interest in buying Gold is on a dip lower to 4280/4380 with the same 4195 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 4470. If this view changes, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Silver Rolling Contract
No Change: I am still flat. I will continue to stay flat Silver until I feel I have a better edge. This is no harm given the extraordinary volatility that we are witnessing at this time. If this view changes, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
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