U.S. Indexes rallied at Quarter-end as markets welcomed improved prospects for an end to the Middle East conflict. Reports overnight said Trump told aides he was willing to end the war without reopening Hormuz, while later reports said the administration could not promise to reopen the Strait and achieve its military objectives quickly. US President Trump also called on those who use the Strait to secure it themselves. Further optimism followed after the Iranian president said Iran was seeking no war but was prepared to end it with guarantees against further attacks. The commentary triggered a cross-asset reaction, with energy prices falling, stocks rallying and T-notes gaining on reduced inflation fears. Optimism over this, together with quarter-end flows, weighed on the Dollar, although the Swiss Franc underperformed, with the Euro leading gains while USD/JPY fell further below 160. Gold and Silver prices rose as Bond Yields tumbled, while Bitcoin also advanced. Data took a back seat, but Consumer Confidence improved and JOLTS matched expectations after the prior reading was revised up. Fed’s Schmid was hawkish as usual, while Williams largely echoed Powell. Elsewhere, Marvell (MRVL) shares surged after it announced a partnership with Nvidia (NVDA), under which NVDA will invest USD 2 billion in the company. McCormick (MKC) was lower after it confirmed it is to merge with Unilever’s (ULVR LN) food business in a USD 45 billion deal. Job Openings in February fell to 6.8882 million from 7.24 million (revised from 6.946 million), slightly above the 6.85 million forecast. The vacancy rate fell to 4.2% from the upwardly revised 4.4%, while the Quits Rate fell to 1.9% from 2.0%. Pantheon Macroeconomics notes that “The headline JOLTS job openings numbers are volatile and heavily revised, but we see no sign in this report that the labour market was regaining momentum before the Iran war”. The consultancy adds that “Even the relatively weak state of labour demand implied by the latest JOLTS openings numbers might still be overstating the strength of employment growth if openings fail to translate into hirings. The private sector hiring rate plunged to just 3.3% in February—the lowest since early 2010—from 3.7%.” Consumer confidence in March edged up to 91.8 from 91.0 in February, above the expected 88.0. The Present Situation index rose by 4.6 points to 123.3, while the Expectations Index declined by 1.7 points to 70.9. Note, the survey period for prelim results was March 1st-24th, and the reports notes while not obvious in the headline or its component indices, the weight of rising costs due to tariff passthrough and spiking oil prices was evident among other measures in the survey like inflation expectations. Looking at the survey’s results, in the present situation, consumer views of current business conditions improved, while views of the labour market were virtually unchanged. Ahead, consumers were a tad less pessimistic about future business conditions, more negative about the labour market, and income prospects slightly less optimistic, likely due to the Iran war. Fed Member Williams said monetary policy is well positioned to handle unusual circumstances; he noted that the Iran conflict will likely lift inflation in coming months via higher energy and intermediate costs, while dampening activity. Williams expects growth around 2.5% this year (vs SEP median of 2.4%), inflation at 2.75% (vs SEP median of 2.7%) before returning to 2% next year (vs SEP median of 2.2%), and unemployment to ease. Williams did not signal any near-term policy change, but said risks to both inflation and employment have increased, echoing Chair Powell’s cautious wait-and-see stance. Elsewhere, Oil closed lower by 0.5% while Gold surged, ending Tuesday’s session with a 3.4% gain.
To mark my 3350th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2-Year Rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day to demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it was made 525 points yesterday to end March with a massive gain of 9002 points, having closed February with a strong gain of 5482 points after ending January with a gain of 4757 points, having closed December with a gain of 2599 points, after ending the month of November with a gain of 4542 points, after ending October with a nice gain of 5110 points after closing September with a gain of 3774 points while ending August with a gain of 3362 points after closing July with a gain of 3753 points after closing June with a gain of 3530 points, having closed May with a gain of 3606 points, after closing April with a gain of 7685 points after closing March with a gain of 2254 points while closing February with a gain of 4180 points. January ended with a gain of 2768 points while 1997 points were gained in December. October ended with a gain of 2179 points, after closing September with a gain of 4402 points, following a loss of 301 points in August. July gained 1908 points while June saw a gain of 2074 points. The Platinum Service made a record 9619 points in October 2022. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 2300 points. I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking HERE Please subscribe to this for new interview notification
Equities
The S&P 500 closed 2.91% higher at a price of 6528.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 1125 points higher for a 2.49% gain at a price of 46,341.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 3.43% higher at a price of 23,740.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 0.42% higher.
Yesterday, the MSCI Asia Pacific closed 0.3% higher.
Yesterday, the Nikkei closed 1.58% lower at a price of 51,063.
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.61% lower.
The Euro closed 0.69% higher at $1.1542.
The British Pound closed 0.38% higher at $1.3235.
The Japanese Yen rose 0.52% closing at $158.92.
Bonds
U.K.’s 10-Year Gilt closed 2 basis points lower at 4.86%.
Germany’s 10-Year Bund Yield closed 7 basis points lower at 2.98%
U.S.10 Year Treasury closed 4 basis points lower at 4.31%.
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude closed 0.48% lower at $102.40 a barrel.
Gold closed 3.4% higher at $4664.10 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front we have German, Euro-Zone and U.K. Manufacturing PMI at 8.55 am, 9.00 am and 9.30 am respectively. This is followed by Euro-Zone Unemployment at 10.00 am and the Minutes from this month’s Bank of England Meeting at 10.30 am. Next, we have U.S. MBA Mortgage Applications at 12.00 pm and Retail Sales at 1.30 pm. This is followed by Manufacturing PMI at 2.45 pm and ISM Manufacturing PMI and Business Inventories at 3.00 pm. Finally, we have the Atlanta Fed GDPNOW at 4.30 pm.
Cash S&P 500
Four weeks ago, I filled my car with petrol at $2.89 per gallon here in Marco Island Florida. Yesterday I filled my car at $4.29 per gallon. With Mid-Term Elections in just seven months there is no way a war in Iran is sustainable. Coupled with Bond Yields rising substantially and a stock market down 12% from the highs there was every chance that President Trump would reverse course. This evening Trump came out saying he will leave Iran even if they do not have a deal. At the end of the day everything with Trump is the stock market and a deal. Repeating my opening comment from yesterday: ‘’Two key takes from Monday’s session which surprised me: The VIX actually closed 2% lower despite the rise in oil prices and with the exception of the Dow all three main American Indexes closed lower. Secondly, which really surprised me was the McClellan Oscillator improving from Friday’s -137 reading to close last night at -114. This implies that internally the market has not worsened over the past week despite the drop in equity prices. The Fear & Greed Index closed with an even more extreme fear reading of 9. This backdrop implies that prices are close to a meaningful bottom’’. And this is what we had. Shortly after I posted early Tuesday morning the S&P hit a low at 6310 before literally 20 minutes later spike to 6392. This move higher was the first hint that something meaningful was going on in the background leading to a Tuesday high at 6539. This move higher saw my 6450 T/P level triggered on my very large 6433 average long position and I am now flat. The McClellan Oscillator improved substantially yesterday, closing at -17 while the Fear & Greed Index only moved to a reading of 15 which is still ‘Extreme Fear’’. Given the extent of Tuesday’s rally it was surprisingly that Oil hardly moved at all and this is the worry for buying the S&P at these levels despite the market still being extremely oversold. As I go to post both the S&P and Oil are trading higher which is strange in my opinion. The 200-Day Moving Average for the S&P comes in at a price of 6607. Today, I will be a strong seller from 6595/6620 with a tight 6635 ‘Closing Stop’. My only interest in buy the S&P is on a move lower to 6430/6455 with a 6412 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 6560. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 6478.
EUR/USD
My latest 1.1585 average long Euro position worked well as the market rallied to my 1.1550 T/P level and I am now flat. The Euro has support below from 1.1420/1.1490 where I will again be a buyer with a lower 1.1355 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 1.1560.
Dollar Index
The Dollar rallied hard yesterday and I am still flat. I will now lower my Dollar sell level to 100.40/101.20 with a lower 101.95 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 99.80.
Russell 2000
Overnight the Russell sold off to my second buy level at 2400 for a 2435 average long position before rallying to my revised 2480 T/P level and I am now flat. Today, I will again be a buyer on any dip lower to 2400/2460 with a higher 2345 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 2505.
FTSE 100
I am still flat as the FTSE never came close to Tuesday’s buy range before rallying over 150 points into the close. The FTSE has short-term resistance from 10310/10410 where I will be a seller with a 10505 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 10240. I no longer want to be long the FTSE at this time.
Dow Rolling Contract
I am still flat as the Dow never came close to Tuesday’s buy range before surging over 1100 points on the day. There is no doubt short positions were obliterated. The big question is where we go from here. The 200 Day Moving Average comes in at a price of 46670. I will use any further tag of this area to be a seller as nothing has changed in that the stock market is extremely overvalued while Oil did not fall much yesterday. Therefore, I will be a small seller on any further rally to 46700/47000 with a 47205 tight ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 46410. The Dow has short-term support from 44900/45200. I will now raise my buy level to this area with a higher 44595 wider ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 45560. If any of these views change, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members
Cash NASDAQ 100
Wow! The NDX rose 800 points yesterday, ending Tuesday’s session with a 3.5% gain. As long as the NDX stays below its 200-Day Moving Average rallies will be sold. Yet again the Fear & Greed Index proves to be a fantastic buy signal on any reading in the single digits. Tuesday’s rally saw my revised 23115 T/P level triggered on my latest 22870 long position and I am now flat. Today will tell us a lot about the strength of the market given yesterday was Quarter and Month end and it will be interesting to see what follow-through there is in today’s session. The NDX has resistance from 24300/24600 where I will be a small seller with a tight 24805 ‘Closing Stop’. The NDX has short-term support from 23100/23400 where I will be a strong buyer with a 22955 tight ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 24030. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 23750. If any of these views change, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
December BUND
My latest 125.75 average long Bund position worked well as the market rallied to my 126.25 T/P level and I am now flat. There is no doubt the 3% yield on the Bund is key. Given the level of debt in the system the ECB will do everything in their power to stop yields from rising further. Today, I will again be a buyer of the Bund from 124.80/125.60 with a lower 124.15 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 126.20.
Gold Rolling Contract
Unfortunately, I have no edge in Gold at this time. Gold had its weakest month since 2008 despite yesterday’s 3.5% rally. I do not trust the rally in Gold. My only interest in buying Gold is on a dip lower to 4280/4380 with the same 4195 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 4470. If this view changes, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Silver Rolling Contract
No Change: I am still flat. I will continue to stay flat Silver until I feel I have a better edge. This is no harm given the extraordinary volatility that we are witnessing at this time. If this view changes, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
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