U.S. Indexes were choppy amid broader risk-off sentiment for the majority of the session as participants await US President Trump’s 20:00EDT Iran deadline, as his punchy rhetoric continued as he noted “a whole civilization will die tonight, never to be brought back again; does not want that to happen, but it probably will”. However, souring risk sentiment reversed into the close due to a Pakistan proposal, which seemed to drive some positive responses (more below). Throughout Tuesday, it was a headline heavy day, as Middle East headlines unsurprisingly drove risk sentiment and market moves, as reporting differed but the most recent update was more positive and saw a reversal in risk sentiment; in response to Pakistan requesting Trump to extend Iran deadline for two weeks, and Iran opening the Strait of Hormuz for a corresponding period of two weeks as goodwill gesture, a Senior Iranian official to Reuters said Tehran is positively reviewing Pakistan’s request for a two-week ceasefire, while White House Press Secretary noted Trump has been made aware of the Pakistan proposal, and a response will come. As such, and given the latest update, US equity futures closed up/flat, while the crude complex is now in the red at the time of writing, wiping out its entire gain through the day, which was initially amid chatter that Iran/US do not seem much closer to an agreement ahead of the deadline. G10 FX peers, except for the Swiss Franc also gained versus the Dollar given the latest remarks, although performance was more mixed throughout the day, with the Australian Dollar always outperforming. Precious metals gain, with spot gold at session highs and back above USD $4700/oz. Durable Goods Orders unexpectedly declined again in March, -1.4% (exp. +0.4%, prev. -1.4%). Ex-Transport rose 0.8%, above the expected 0.7% (prev. 0.4%), while ex-defence fell 1.2% (prev. +0.5%). Nondefense capital goods orders excluding aircraft rose 0.6%. Pantheon Macroeconomics writes that the drop in headline orders in February was entirely due to a 37% plunge in the volatile aircraft orders component, reflecting a soft month for Boeing. Ahead, “Mounting consumer headwinds and depressed surveys of capex intentions suggest the goods sector is likely to remain anemic in the months ahead.” Fed Member Goolsbee said rising oil prices is a stagflationary shock. Now in an uncomfortable situation, with no obvious cookbook for Fed. Goolsbee’s immediate concern is the stagflationary shock of oil prices before the tariff-price shock has gone away. He views the job market as stable, but not great, Cautious and nervous about the economy. The Chicago Fed President is hoping the impact from oil will prove temporary, and gas at USD 5/gallon would affect the supply chain. Meanwhile, Fed Member Williams thinks Iran will go directly into headline inflation given energy, and that inflation this year should be around 2.75%. The New York Fed President added he is focused on underlying inflation, and that the story on core has not changed that much. He expects underlying inflation to start coming down later this year, while adding that Monetary Policy takes about a year to have its full effect on inflation, so we have to try and think through where inflation and the economy will be later, and expect underlying inflation to start coming down later this year. Ahead, Williams reiterated that monetary policy is well positioned to wait and see, and it is exactly where it needs to be and can be changed if needed. Speaking on the labour market, noted that the situation is complicated, and that it is low hire, low fire. He expects 2-2.5% GDP this year with stable unemployment rate. Elsewhere, Gold ended Tuesday’s session ith a 1.4% gain while Oil ended the day with a 2% loss.
To mark my 3350th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2-Year Rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day to demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 60 points yesterday and is now ahead by 1265 points for April after ending March with a massive gain of 9002 points, having closed February with a strong gain of 5482 points after ending January with a gain of 4757 points, having closed December with a gain of 2599 points, after ending the month of November with a gain of 4542 points, after ending October with a nice gain of 5110 points after closing September with a gain of 3774 points while ending August with a gain of 3362 points after closing July with a gain of 3753 points after closing June with a gain of 3530 points, having closed May with a gain of 3606 points, after closing April with a gain of 7685 points after closing March with a gain of 2254 points while closing February with a gain of 4180 points. January ended with a gain of 2768 points while 1997 points were gained in December. October ended with a gain of 2179 points, after closing September with a gain of 4402 points, following a loss of 301 points in August. July gained 1908 points while June saw a gain of 2074 points. The Platinum Service made a record 9619 points in October 2022. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 2300 points. I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking HERE Please subscribe to this for new interview notification
Equities
The S&P 500 closed 0.08% higher at a price of 6616.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 85 points lower for a 0.18% loss at a price of 46,584.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 0.04% higher at a price of 24,202.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 1.01% lower.
Yesterday, the MSCI Asia Pacific closed 0.3% higher.
Yesterday, the Nikkei closed 0.03% higher at a price of 53,429.
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.13% lower.
The Euro closed 0.45% higher at $1.1595.
The British Pound closed 0.43% higher at $1.3292.
The Japanese Yen rose 0.15% closing at $159.60.
Bonds
U.K.’s 10-Year Gilt closed 12 basis points higher at 4.90%.
Germany’s 10-Year Bund Yield closed 10 basis points higher at 3.09%
U.S.10 Year Treasury closed 4 basis points lower at 4.30%.
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude closed 1.57% lower at $110.60 a barrel.
Gold closed 1.37% higher at $4711.10 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front we have the German Factory Orders at 7.00 am. Next, we have German, Euro-Zone and UK Construction PMI at 8.30 am, 8.35 am and 9.30 am respectively. At 10.00 am we have Euro-Zone PPI and Retail Sales, followed by U.S. MBA Mortgage Applications at 12.00 pm. Finally, we have a Ten -Year Treasury Auction at 6.00 pm and the FOMC Minutes from last month’s meeting at 7.00 pm.
Cash S&P 500
As we all know at this stage that Trump always chickens out (TACO) and thankfully he has followed that theme this morning as I go to post. Despite his aggressive narrative over the past 48 hours the S&P would not trade lower and anyone who went home long last night has certainly being rewarded given the 125 Handle Gap (higher) following Trump’s statement that he has agreed to a two-week conditional ceasefire. This gap higher saw the market open above the 200-Day Moving Average and Tuesday’s sell range, trading at a price of 6758 as I go to post. I have gone short here at a price of 6758 and I will add to this trade at 6784 with a now higher 6805 ‘Closing Stop’. I will have a T/P level on this short position at 6710. The S&P will have strong support from 6635/6660 where I will be a strong buyer on any initial tag with a 6619 tight ‘Closing Stop’. If executed, I will have a T/P level at 6683.
EUR/USD
My latest 1.1510 long Euro position worked well as the market rallied to my 1.1570 T/P level and I am now flat. Today, I will again be a buyer on any dip lower to 1.1450/1.1520 with the same 1.1385 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 1.1580.
Dollar Index
I am still flat as the Dollar again traded in narrow range on Tuesday. However, following the Trump U-Turn the Dollar is weaker by 0.8% as I go to post, trading at a price of 99.05. The Dollar has strong support below from 98.00/98.80 where I will be a buyer with a 97.35 Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 99.50.
Russell 2000
The Russell never came close to Tuesday’s buy range before accelerating to the upside into the close. This morning the Russell is trading a further 3% higher at a price of 2630. The Russell has strong resistance from 2660/2710 where I will be a seller with a 2765 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 2610.
FTSE 100
The FTSE was heavy for all of Tuesday’s trading session before accelerating overnight. This move higher saw Tuesday’s sell range hit for a now 10600 short position. I will add to this position at 10700 while raising my ‘Closing Stop’ to 10805. I will now have a T/P level on this position at 10510. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Dow Rolling Contract
Frustrating! The Dow hit a low at 46210 – just 10 points above my 46200-buy level before rallying over 1300 points. This move higher sees the Dow now trading comfortably above its 200 Day Moving Average (46761). This level will act as strong support on any initial test. Therefore, I will be a buyer from 46550/46800 with a higher 46295 wider ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 47150. I still do not want to be short the Dow at this time. If this view changes I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Cash NASDAQ 100
Just like the Dow above the NDX just fell shy of Tuesday’s buy range before exploding overnight. The NDX is now trading 450 points above its 200 Day Moving Average (24450) as I go to post. This move higher saw the NDX spike above Tuesday’s sell range on the re-open, trading at a price of 24900 as I go to post. I have now gone short here. I will add to this trade at 25050 with a now higher 25205 ‘Closing Stop’. I will have a T/P level at 24680 on this position. If any of these views change, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
December BUND
The Bund got hit hard yesterday. This move lower saw my buy range triggered for a now 125.40 long position. I will add to this position at 124.60 with a now lower 123.95 ‘Closing Stop’. I will now lower my T/P level to 126.10. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Gold Rolling Contract
No Change: Unfortunately, I have no edge in Gold at this time. Gold had its weakest month since 2008 despite yesterday’s 3.5% rally. I do not trust the rally in Gold. My only interest in buying Gold is on a dip lower to 4280/4380 with the same 4195 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 4470. If this view changes, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Silver Rolling Contract
No Change: I am still flat. I will continue to stay flat Silver until I feel I have a better edge. This is no harm given the extraordinary volatility that we are witnessing at this time. If this view changes, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Recent Comments