U.S. Indexes and most sectors ended the day in the green amid broader risk-on trade as participants seemingly took sentiment regarding constructive remarks from the US on the conclusion of the Iranian war, although Iranian officials pushed back on this at every opportunity. Overnight, Trump’s said that the US could leave Iran in two to three weeks, which followed reports that the US could exit Iran without reopening the Strait of Hormuz, but Iran officials denied this, and comes ahead of the President’s address at 21:00EDT this evening; many of the details have been touted, as he will seemingly lambast NATO, and declare 2-3 more weeks of the war. Note, reports suggest that an imminent withdrawal/de-escalation is not expected. Geopolitics continues to dictate sentiment and price action, but there was quite a bit of US data, with the main driver being a strong ADP report, which topped expectations, ahead of the US jobs report on Friday. Retail sales and ISM also topped, with the prices metric soaring on the latter and survey respondents clearly concerned about the Iranian war. Back to sectors, Industrials and Communications outperformed, while Energy was the notable laggard and was hit by weakness in oil prices. Nike slumped post-earnings amid soft guidance and questions residing over the turnaround strategy, while Micron pared some of its recent selling. Precious metals gain, with Spot Gold outperforming its peers. Treasuries flatten as the ADP beat limited further upside in the short-end. Fed speak came via hawkish Musalem, Barr, and Barkin, albeit garnered little reaction. As mentioned, traders await Trump overnight. ISM Manufacturing in March rose to 52.7 from 52.4, above the expected 52.3. Prices jumped 78.3 (exp. 72.5, prev. 70.5), potentially on the Iran conflict, while New Orders dipped to 53.5 from 55.8. Employment was more-or-less unchanged at 48.7 from 48.8. Production and supplier deliveries edged higher to 55.1 (prev. 53.5) and 58.9 (prev. 55.1), respectively, and while inventories dipped to 47.1 from 48.8. Backlog of orders fell, but remained above 50, while new export orders and imports declined, with the former falling below 50. In survey respondents, Iran and the Middle East was a consistent topic, as it was the first report with panellists citing the Iran war as a new impact to their business. Recapping some of these remarks, 1) “The actions in Iran add a new wrinkle to energy costs throughout the world, and continue to try and plan for the unpredictable and unexpected”; 2) “Current Middle East unrest is already starting to impact business operations by increasing lead times, costs, container delays and the like.” 3) “Ongoing geopolitical instability has emerged as a persistent factor influencing global trade dynamics”. 4) “Middle East war has created domestic and global turmoil for the olefins and polyolefins business”. ADP Employment in March rose 62k, more-or-less unchanged from the prior 66k, and above the expected 40k. Median pay changes saw job-stayers’ wage growth unchanged at 4.5%, and job-changers ticked higher to 6.6% from 6.3%. The ADP employment report offsets the softer signal from Tuesday’s JOLTS report, with Oxford Economics noting its points to a labour market that is cooling gradually, not cracking. Given the Iran conflict, OxEco adds that March ADP figures are likely too early to see any effects of the US/Israel-Iran conflict, which they expect will weigh on hiring via delays and reduced demand. Regarding the growth on the headline, it was broad-based, with declines limited to manufacturing and trade/transport/utilities, while small firms continued to drive most of the hiring. Retail Sales growth was 0.6%, above the expected 0.4%, showing a decent rebound and the highest print in seven months from the prior decline of 0.2%. Behind the rebound was an increase in sales at department stores (3%), health and personal care stores (2.3%), and clothing (2%). The core gauge, Control Group, rose 0.5% (prev. 0.3%). Ex-autos increased 0.5% (exp. 0.3%, prev. 0.0%), and Ex-Gas/Autos rose 0.4% (prev. 0.3%). Oxford Economics expects the war with Iran to start impacting retail sales in March, as higher personal outlays for gasoline begin to crowd out discretionary spending. The firm cautions that the impact will take longer to materialise than normal, as households are benefiting from a large increase in tax refunds. Elsewhere, Oil closed lower by 2% while Gold continued its move higher with a further 2% gain on Wednesday.
To mark my 3350th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2-Year Rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day to demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 660 points yesterday on the first trading session for April after ending March with a massive gain of 9002 points, having closed February with a strong gain of 5482 points after ending January with a gain of 4757 points, having closed December with a gain of 2599 points, after ending the month of November with a gain of 4542 points, after ending October with a nice gain of 5110 points after closing September with a gain of 3774 points while ending August with a gain of 3362 points after closing July with a gain of 3753 points after closing June with a gain of 3530 points, having closed May with a gain of 3606 points, after closing April with a gain of 7685 points after closing March with a gain of 2254 points while closing February with a gain of 4180 points. January ended with a gain of 2768 points while 1997 points were gained in December. October ended with a gain of 2179 points, after closing September with a gain of 4402 points, following a loss of 301 points in August. July gained 1908 points while June saw a gain of 2074 points. The Platinum Service made a record 9619 points in October 2022. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 2300 points. I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking HERE Please subscribe to this for new interview notification
Equities
The S&P 500 closed 0.75% higher at a price of 6572.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 224 points higher for a 0.48% gain at a price of 46,565.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 1.18% higher at a price of 24,019.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 2.50% higher.
Yesterday, the MSCI Asia Pacific closed 1.3% higher.
Yesterday, the Nikkei closed 5.24% higher at a price of 53,739.
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.36% lower.
The Euro closed 0.29% higher at $1.1581.
The British Pound closed 0.56% higher at $1.3297.
The Japanese Yen fell 0.08% closing at $158.98.
Bonds
U.K.’s 10-Year Gilt closed 8 basis points lower at 4.78%.
Germany’s 10-Year Bund Yield closed 1 basis points higher at 2.99%
U.S.10 Year Treasury closed 1 basis points higher at 4.32%.
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude closed 1.95% lower at $99.42 a barrel.
Gold closed 2.14% higher at $4768.10 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front we have the Euro-Zone Economic Bulletin at 9.00 am. This is followed by U.S. Weekly Jobless Claims and the Trade Balance at 1.30 pm. Finally, we have speeches from Fed Members Logan and Bowman at 4.00 pm and 5.45 pm respectively.
Cash S&P 500
The S&P 500 closed higher by 0.7% on Wednesday. The key takeaway is that the index cleared resistance at the 10-day exponential moving average. The negative, however, is that it failed at the 20-day exponential moving average. It is hard to draw firm conclusions right now, given all the headline-driven moves. For the moment, we have to rely on what the charts—and, more importantly, options positioning—tell us: the market is facing resistance from a technical and options standpoint. From an options perspective, there appears to be a significant amount of positive gamma built up at 6,600, which should also act as resistance. Additionally, we are no longer in a negative gamma regime, meaning hedging flows should help dampen volatility. The biggest factor heading into today’s trading session is that the market is closed on Friday, while the jobs report is still being released that day. Given ongoing geopolitical developments, there is a strong likelihood that implied volatility will rise on Thursday. My S&P plan worked well yesterday as after the market hit my 6598 sell level we sold off to my 6560 T/P level and I am now flat. With the 200 Day Moving Average coming in at a price of 6640 there is every chance that this level will be tagged before I return on Tuesday after the Easter break. I will be a small seller from 6645/6670 with a higher 6693 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 6617. Meanwhile, I will continue to be a large buyer on any dip lower to 6430/6455 with the same 6412 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 6483. If any of these view change, I will be back with anew update for my Platinum Members.
EUR/USD
I am still flat. Today, I will raise my buy level to 1.1450/1.1520 with a higher 1.1385 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 1.1585.
Dollar Index
I am still flat. Today, I will continue to be a seller from 100.40/101.20 with the same 101.95 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 99.80.
Russell 2000
I am still flat. The Russell continues to trade heavy. I have no interest in chasing the market higher preferring to wait for a dip before re-entering a buy position. Today, I will again be a buyer on any dip lower to 2400/2460 with the same 2345 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 2505.
FTSE 100
The FTSE surged higher on Wednesday. This move higher saw the whole of my sell range triggered for a now 10380 average short position. I will leave my 10505 ‘Closing Stop’ unchanged while raising my T/P level to 10270. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update For my Platinum Members.
Dow Rolling Contract
The Dow tested its 200 Day Moving Average before selling off on first tag before regrouping and move higher into the close. This initial move up saw my 46760-sell level triggered before selling off to my revised 46480 T/P level as emailed to my Platinum Members and I am now flat. Today, the 200 Day Moving Average is slightly higher at 46700. Ahead of the key NFP data tomorrow I am reluctant to have a sell range especially as Europe is off until Tuesday while the American Indexes are open on Monday. I will now raise my buy level to 45720/46020. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 46340. If this view changes, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members
Cash NASDAQ 100
I am still flat as the NDX never came close to either my buy/sell level on Wednesday. Ahead of the NFP tomorrow, I will now raise my sell level to 24420/24720 with a higher 24905 ‘Closing Stop’. Meanwhile, I will continue to be a strong buyer on any further dip lower to 23180/23480 with the same 22955 tight ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 24130. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 23770. If any of these views change, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
December BUND
No Change: Today, I will again be a buyer of the Bund from 124.80/125.60 with the same 124.15 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 126.20.
Gold Rolling Contract
No Change: Unfortunately, I have no edge in Gold at this time. Gold had its weakest month since 2008 despite yesterday’s 3.5% rally. I do not trust the rally in Gold. My only interest in buying Gold is on a dip lower to 4280/4380 with the same 4195 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 4470. If this view changes, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Silver Rolling Contract
No Change: I am still flat. I will continue to stay flat Silver until I feel I have a better edge. This is no harm given the extraordinary volatility that we are witnessing at this time. If this view changes, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
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