U.S. Equities advanced as heavyweight technology companies led a rebound. Both U.S.Treasuries and the US Dollar dropped. The S&P 500 rose for the third time in four sessions, erasing early losses, as investors looked past geopolitical tensions and toward the resilience of the U.S. economy. Amazon Inc. and Google-parent Alphabet Inc. paced the advance. The risk-off rally that started Friday, sparked by the U.S.-Iran conflict, lost momentum Monday. Gold retreated from the highest in more than six years and the Japanese Yen fell from a three-month high versus the Dollar, while 10-year Treasury yields rose to above 1.80%. Oil also pared gains, which reached the highest since April, to trade below $63 a barrel in New York. The risk-off sentiment spurred by the sudden escalation of tensions in the Middle East last week ebbed Monday as investors refocused on improving trade and better economic numbers. But the uncertainty surrounding Iran’s potential reaction to the U.S. airstrike still hung over markets. Tensions between the U.S. and Iran continued to climb after last week’s killing of General Qassem Soleimani as the Pentagon sent additional forces to the Middle East and Defense Secretary Mark Esper insisted the U.S. hasn’t made a decision about leaving Iraq. The three-ship Bataan Amphibious Readiness Group was ordered to move to the Persian Gulf region from the Mediterranean, where it has been exercising, according to a U.S. official. The group, which includes about 2,200 Marines and a helicopter unit, follows the deployment of about 3,500 soldiers from the Army’s 82nd Airborne to Kuwait late last week.
To mark my 1975th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2 year rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day To demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 188 points yesterday and is now ahead by 594 points for January, having made 818 points in December, 780 points in November, 1649 points in October, 1620 points in September, 2387 points in August, 1153 points in July, 1346 points in June,1722 points in May, 955 points in April and 1027 points in March. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1600 points
I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given. This can be viewed by clicking HERE Please subscribe to this for new interview notificationEquities
The S&P 500 Index rose 0.4% to close at a price of 3246.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 0.3% to close at 28.703.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index sank 0.4%.
The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell 1.2%.
The MSCI Emerging Market Index dropped 1%.
Currencies
Here is a summary of the main Changes in F.X. Markets:
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index declined 0.2%.
The Euro increased 0.3% to $1.1192.
The British Pound gained 0.6% to $1.3163.
The Japanese Yen fell 0.3% to 108.37 per dollar.
Bonds
The yield on 10-year Treasuries rose one basis point to 1.80%.
The yield on two-year Treasuries increased one basis point to 1.53%.
Germany’s 10-year yield sank less than one basis point to -0.28%.
Britain’s 10-year yield advanced four basis points to 0.777%.
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude fell 0.5% to $62.71 a barrel.
Gold gained 1% to $1,567.60 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front we have Euro-Zone CPI and Retail Sales at 10.00 am. This is followed at 1.30 pm by the latest U.S Trade Balance. Finally, at 3.00 pm we have ISM Non – Manufacturing PMI and Factory Orders.
March S&P 500
The idea of buying in front of the key 3200/3215 short-term support area for the S&P again worked well with the market trading to an overnight high at 3252, well off yesterday morning’s 3209 low print. This initial move lower enabled me to buy the market at 3213 before again exiting too early at my revised 3220 T/P level and I am now flat. The market is very close to last Thursday’s 3258 closing all-time high. One valuable lesson that I have learned over my 30 years of trading is that a market that cannot fall on bad news has to respected. Against that point we are certainly overbought as shown by sentiment levels which are near extreme levels. The ‘’Fear & Greed’’ Index closed at 93 last night. Today I will raise my sell level to 3262/3277 with a higher 3284 tight stop. My ultimate target for the S&P (first outlined 18 months ago) is 3310/3350 and I will be an aggressive seller on any rally to this area over the coming weeks with a 3370 wider stop. The S&P has short-term support from 3215/3228 and I will be a small buyer in this area with a 3206 stop which is just below last Friday’s low print.
EUR/USD
It is interesting that despite the threat of war that the US Dollar actually weakened with the Euro eventually hitting my 1.1185 T/P level on my latest 1.1170 long position from last week and I am now flat. Today I will be a buyer from 1.1100/1.1140 with a 1.1055 stop. I still do not want to be short the Euro at this time.
March Dollar Index
I am still flat the Dollar as I continue to be a seller from 96.80/97.25 with the same 97.55 stop.
March DAX
My DAX plan worked well with the market trading the whole of my buy range for an average long position at 12970, As I had a number of open positions at the time I emailed my Platinum Members to exit any long position at my revised 13003 T/P level and I am now flat. I should have trusted my instincts more as the DAX was trading at the bottom of its Daily Bollinger Band before rallying to trade 200 points higher at 13200 this morning. Today I will again look to buy the DAX from 13050/13110 with a 12995 tight stop. I still do not want to be short the market at this time.
March FTSE
I am still flat the FTSE and today I will raise my sell level to 7600/7640 with a higher 7675 stop.
Dow Rolling Contract
My Dow plan also worked well with the market trading lower to my 28390 buy level before rallying to my too tight 28460 T/P level and I am now flat. Despite sentiment levels at extreme levels and prices close to all-time highs internally the market is struggling with the McClellan Oscillator again closing barley in positive territory with a +26 print last night. The Dow is trading 800 points above its 50 Day Moving Average while the S&P is even more overbought as the 50 Day MA is way below at a price of 3136. Today I will raise my sell level slightly to 28870/29020 with a higher 29105 stop. As long as the Dow does not break and close below 28200, I will continue to be a buyer on dips and today my buy level will be from 28400/28550 with a 28310 stop.
March NASDAQ
The late rally into the close saw the NASDAQ hit my sell level at 8865. I will look to add to this position on any further move higher to 8950 with a higher 9010 stop. I will raise my T/P level on this position to 8830 and if any of the above levels are hit I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
March BUND
The rebound in Equity Markets sees the Bund opening lower this morning and I am still flat. I will now lower my buy level to 171.00/171.40 with a 170.55 stop.
Gold Rolling Contract
Frustratingly Gold just missed my initial 1588 sell level with a 1585 rebound high before selling off as expected to trade to an overnight low at 1555. I am still flat and today I will be a small buyer from 1542/1552 with a 1535 stop. I no longer want to be short Gold at this time.
Silver Rolling Contract
Silver traded lower to my 18.10 buy level. I am still long with a now higher 17.60 stop. I will now lower my T/P level on this position to 18.30.
Recent Comments