U.S. Indexes returned from the Easter weekend in positive territory, while yields rose and oil firmed. Markets had much to digest after Friday’s stronger-than-expected Non-Farm Payrolls report, which helped ease recent labour market concerns. Focus remained on the Middle East, however, with US President Donald Trump giving Iran until Tuesday at 20:00 EDT to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and reach a deal or face US strikes on Iranian energy and power facilities, as well as bridges across the country. War Secretary Hegseth said Monday had seen the highest volume of strikes on Iran so far and that Tuesday would be even larger. Trump said that, if Iran did not meet the deadline, the US would take out Iran within four hours. Despite the threats, markets were more optimistic about the prospects for a deal after Trump said negotiators in Iran wanted to reach one, despite earlier pushback from Iran’s Foreign Ministry. Iran had rejected a 45-day ceasefire proposal from the United States and responded with a 10-point plan, but Trump said that was not good enough. Oil settled higher but well below overnight peaks in volatile trade, and also well above lows seen during the European morning. Treasury yields bear-flattened on higher oil prices and in response to Friday’s payrolls report, with the cash market closed that day. US ISM services PMI data disappointed on the headline, but the main takeaway was a surge in the Prices Paid component and a drop in the Employment Index. In FX, the Japanese Yen underperformed as US Treasury Yields rose, while the Dollar also lagged peers and the Antipodean currencies led gains. Gold fell, Silver was flat and Bitcoin rose. The focus this week is largely on Trump’s deadline and whether some kind of deal can be reached, while FOMC Minutes, US CPI, PCE and Treasury auctions will also be watched. The headline PMI fell to 54.0 from 56.1, below the 55 forecast. The components saw business activity fall to 53.9 from 59.9, although new orders rose to 60.6 from 58.6. When looking at the prices and employment PMIs, both were concerning for the Fed. Prices Paid surged to 70.7 from 63.0 (reminder, March CPI is due on Friday) while the employment PMI dropped to 45.2 (albeit the March NFP was strong). Within the report, it highlighted that the data indicates a 1.9% increase in real GDP on an annualised basis. However, ING suggests it is consistent with a rise of 2.5% when compared with the manufacturing PMI. Also, the ISM Services PMI questions saw companies note how they are purchasing additional inventory to account for geopolitical issues, with oil derivative products being stockpiled in case of an extended conflict or closure of Hormuz. On the reopen of cash trade, Friday’s NFP report supported the bear flattening, with the US adding 178k jobs in March, well above the 60k forecast and exceeding the most optimistic estimates. The Unemployment Rate fell to 4.3% from 4.4%, although the participation rate declined to 61.9%. The stronger report helped offset concerns following February’s weakness, though volatility in the data this year keeps focus on upcoming releases. Elsewhere, Oil closed 2.3% higher while Gold was soft, ending Monday’s session with a 0.5% fall.
To mark my 3350th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2-Year Rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day to demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 545 points yesterday and is now ahead by 1205 points for April after ending March with a massive gain of 9002 points, having closed February with a strong gain of 5482 points after ending January with a gain of 4757 points, having closed December with a gain of 2599 points, after ending the month of November with a gain of 4542 points, after ending October with a nice gain of 5110 points after closing September with a gain of 3774 points while ending August with a gain of 3362 points after closing July with a gain of 3753 points after closing June with a gain of 3530 points, having closed May with a gain of 3606 points, after closing April with a gain of 7685 points after closing March with a gain of 2254 points while closing February with a gain of 4180 points. January ended with a gain of 2768 points while 1997 points were gained in December. October ended with a gain of 2179 points, after closing September with a gain of 4402 points, following a loss of 301 points in August. July gained 1908 points while June saw a gain of 2074 points. The Platinum Service made a record 9619 points in October 2022. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 2300 points. I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking HERE Please subscribe to this for new interview notification
Recent Comments