U.S. Indices closed lower on Friday following a risk-off session with oil prices surging and equities tumbling as we head into a weekend of risk. WTI reclaimed USD 100/barrel post-settlement while E-mini futures briefly fell to sub 6,400. The moves came despite President Trump’s olive branch Thursday evening, where he postponed the attacks on Iran’s energy infrastructure and power plants by another 10 days, taking the new deadline to April 6th. However, the initial optimism faded as the market became increasingly aware that the Iranians do not share the same level of optimism as the US President, and the real issue for markets is the Strait of Hormuz, which has had very little progress regarding a reopening. Meanwhile, Israel today attacked a steel, nuclear and power facility, which Iran has said was in coalition with the US and therefore violates Trump’s promise on Thursday night. This prompted Iran to suggest it will be delaying the response to Trump’s 15-point peace plan, keeping uncertainty high. Regarding a ground invasion, reports also suggested that Trump is leaning against this decision, but he could change his mind. Elsewhere, T-notes saw two-way price action with initial downside fading throughout the US session despite the negative newsflow and positioning elsewhere in markets, perhaps indicating some profit taking or month end rebalancing taking place. In FX, the Dollar outperformed while both the Swiss Franc and Sterling lagged. USD/JPY rose above 160. Gold and Silver were bid as bonds pared the overnight moves, while Bitcoin was hit. Cyber Security names were hit by an AI-disruption story. Reports dropped of a new leaked Anthropic AI model, “Claude Mythos”, which the company believes poses unprecedented cybersecurity risks. Elsewhere, both Oil and Gold surged on Friday ending the session with a 7% and 3% gain respectively.
To mark my 3350th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2-Year Rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day to demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 340 points on Friday and is now ahead by 8477 points for March having closed February with a strong gain of 5482 points after ending January with a gain of 4757 points, having closed December with a gain of 2599 points, after ending the month of November with a gain of 4542 points, after ending October with a nice gain of 5110 points after closing September with a gain of 3774 points whe ending August with a gain of 3362 points after closing July with a gain of 3753 points after closing June with a gain of 3530 points, having closed May with a gain of 3606 points, after closing April with a gain of 7685 points after closing March with a gain of 2254 points while closing February with a gain of 4180 points. January ended with a gain of 2768 points while 1997 points were gained in December. October ended with a gain of 2179 points, after closing September with a gain of 4402 points, following a loss of 301 points in August. July gained 1908 points while June saw a gain of 2074 points. The Platinum Service made a record 9619 points in October 2022. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 2300 points. I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking HERE Please subscribe to this for new interview notification
Equities
The S&P 500 closed 1.67% lower at a price of 6368.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 793 points lower for a 1.73% loss at a price of 45,166.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 1.93% lower at a price of 23,132.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 0.95% lower.
Last Friday, the MSCI Asia Pacific closed 0.7% lower.
Last Friday, the Nikkei closed 0.43% lower at a price of 53,373.
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.27% higher.
The Euro closed 0.16% lower at $1.1513.
The British Pound closed 0.46% lower at $1.3269.
The Japanese Yen fell 0.34% closing at $160.25.
Bonds
U.K.’s 10-Year Gilt closed 97 basis points higher at 4.92%.
Germany’s 10-Year Bund Yield closed 9 basis points higher at 3.11%
U.S.10 Year Treasury closed 10 basis points lower at 4.43%.
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude closed 6.92% higher at $100.90 a barrel.
Gold closed 2.67% higher at $4498.10 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front we have U.K. Consumer Credit and Money Supply at 9.30 am, followed by Euro-Zone Consumer Confidence at 10.00 am. Next, we have German CPI at 1.00 pm. At 2.00 pm we have U.S. Wholesale Inventories and a speech from Fed Chairman Powell at 3.30 pm. Finally, at 3.35 pm we have the Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index.
Cash S&P 500
The S&P 500 closed 1.67% lower on Friday with the market accelerating to the downside into the close. It was another interesting week in markets, and there are a lot of things in a position where, if you start looking at them closely enough, you can begin to see how close we are to certain things really starting to move in a much bigger way than what we have potentially seen thus far. Just scrolling through the charts, you can get the sense that this is a really important spot for us — from a technical perspective, from a sector perspective, and from an overall market perspective. You can get a feel for lots of different pieces moving in the market right now. And at the end of the day, the underlying theme here is that financial conditions are tightening. I wrote a couple of weeks ago about the “four horsemen” of tightening financial conditions, and that is certainly what we have been seeing. The underlying reason for that goes back to oil prices and what is happening there. When we look at oil, you can see it closed on Friday at really its highest level of this entire move. It certainly does not seem like oil is at a point where it is potentially topping. It looks like oil may be in a position where it is just consolidating. Last week, I had noted that the ten-day exponential moving average was serving as a support area and the upper Bollinger Band was serving as resistance. This week, we actually saw a bit of a change. Oil prices fell below the ten-day exponential moving average and did hit the twenty-day simple moving average. But as I noted during the week, it looked like the twenty-day exponential moving average was really now acting as support. When you broke it down a little further, you could see that oil prices were trying to find some sort of base or floor in the $84 to $86 area. We made a nice double bottom, and now we are right back to the highs of where we were on the 23rd before that big morning announcement. Oil is the key piece here because with oil going higher, you are seeing financial conditions tighten. And financial conditions, for the most part, are the enemy of risk assets. Historically, it was always kind of viewed that when financial conditions tightened, oil would come down, because oil was a growth proxy. When financial conditions were tightening, it was an indication of global growth slowing, and therefore oil prices would decline. That all changed after COVID. All of a sudden, oil became the driver of the tightening of financial conditions. It was leading to inflation, and financial conditions tightened as a result. Oil coming down ultimately led to the easing of financial conditions — which, looking back at it in hindsight, makes you think, “I wish I had realised that sooner.” But it was not really the most obvious thing, considering historically that just was not the way it used to work — except maybe in 2007–2008, when oil prices traded inversely to financial conditions. Now we are seeing the effects of higher oil prices starting to weigh. When you look at the ten-year, that is also in a position to potentially start moving. We tested the breakout around 4.43% on Friday, and that did not hold. On Fridays, it is hard to say what exactly markets are thinking about. It could be that people who were short interest rates going into the weekend did not necessarily want to maintain those positions over a weekend where an event can happen and rates get pushed lower on Monday. So, you could have been seeing short covering. You could also have been seeing people taking a more defensive position into the weekend. You also saw the Two-Year rate move up over 4% and then close lower by nearly seven basis points to 3.92%. This led to the yield curve steepening quite a bit on Friday, going up by around eight basis points to around 51 basis points. It is not entirely clear to me because you also saw Gold going higher on Friday, and Gold has really been underperforming more recently. There was a bit of a flight-to-safety feel to Friday afternoon, especially when you consider that the Dollar was stronger as well and risk assets like the S&P 500 really got hammered. We will have to see how things play out on Monday to determine whether the movements we were seeing in rates on Friday were actually meaningful or not. The S&P managed to hold key support at 6350 on Friday. As of right now, 6,300 is the ‘’Put Wall’’, and that is the next major area that could offer some support for the market, while the next region is probably around 6,200. The JPMorgan collar at 6,475 is likely to be key short-term resistance on any tag this week. More importantly, the charts look bullish on the Dollar, probably for a reason — it looks like those systematic flows are also suggesting the Dollar continues to strengthen versus some other currencies. You are seeing some positioning in Futures Markets which suggests we still probably have some systematic flows going through the marketplace, where these systematic funds probably get more short and more bearish on these indicators. Meanwhile, we have interest rates going up because the market is beginning to go through this process of thinking about what the Fed is going to do when it comes to raising rates if we continue to see oil prices going higher. You can see that Fed Fund Futures have repriced to around 3.70%, which is not indicating a rate hike, but it is certainly not indicating any more rate cuts. When you look at what the term structure of CPI inflation swaps is telling us, inflation swaps right now are pricing in significantly higher inflation, and then maybe it begins to steadily come down over time. This is, of course, assuming that oil prices do not go any higher or only stay elevated for a period of time — because clearly, if oil prices continue to go up or stay elevated for a longer period of time, you are going to continue to see these inflation expectations lift. I modeled in what these three or four months would look like because there was really no data in the CPI swap repositories. But you can get a sense that if we were coming down already and were in this region in January, February, or March, then we had to start seeing it come down at some point over the summer. Again, this is where we are right now. I still think that ultimately where oil goes dictates where financial conditions go, which dictates where risk assets go and just about everything else. Initially my S&P plan worked well as the market traded lower to my 6535-buy level before rallying to my revised 6568 T/P level. Subsequently, I emailed my Platinum Members to buy the S&P again which I did at a price of 6508. Late on Friday, I added to this position at 6358 for a now large 6433 average long position. I will have a T/P level on this position at 6470. With Bond Yields at critical levels I cannot see the Fed allowing this to carry on given the level of debt in the system. The Two-Year rate has risen 60 basis points in three weeks. The 14 Day RSI for the S&P closed at 28 on Friday while the Fear & Greed Index closed at 10 which is the lowest reading since the April 2025 lows. For this reason, I will have no stop on my S&P position. If this view changes I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
EUR/USD
The Euro hit my 1.1520 buy level. I am still long with a now lower 1.1580 T/P level. I will continue to look to add to this position at 1.1450 while leaving my 1.1385 ‘Closing Stop’ unchanged. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Dollar Index
If you look at the Dollar Index right now, it looks like it is getting ready to make a breakout and potential move higher. We are sitting right around resistance at 100.00/100.50, and a breakout here could potentially push us significantly higher than where we are right now. I am still flat. As I am back long the Euro, I will now raise my Dollar sell level to 100.60/101.30 with a higher 102.05 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 99.90.
Russell 2000
The Russell finally hit my buy range for a now 2470 long position. I will add to this position at 2400 while lowering my ‘Closing Stop’ to 2345. I will also lower my T/P level to 2515. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
FTSE 100
My FTSE plan worked well as the market traded lower to my 9940-buy level before rallying to my 10030 T/P level and I am now flat. The FSTE is short-term oversold. We have support below from 9760/9830 where I will again be a buyer with a lower 9585 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 9920.
Dow Rolling Contract
After the Dow traded lower to my 45920-buy level on Thursday the market quickly spiked over 300 points enabling me to cover this position at my revised 46165 T/P level and I am still flat as thankfully I had no buy range on Friday. The Dow is now short-term oversold. We have support below from 44250/44550 where I will be a strong buyer with a 43895 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 44980.
Cash NASDAQ 100
Wrong! After the NDX traded the whole of Thursday’s buy range for a 23800 average long position I was stopped out of this position below my stop at a price of 23195 and I am now having fallen over 12% since its late January high. The NDX has short-term support below from 22650/22910 where I will be an aggressive buyer with a 22495 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 23305. If this view changes, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
December BUND
The Bund got hit hard on Friday, trading the whole of my buy range for a now 125.75 average long position. I will leave my 124.75 ‘Closing Stop’ unchanged while lowering my T/P level to 126.30. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Gold Rolling Contract
My Gold plan worked well as the market sold off to my 4370-buy level before rallying to a rebound high above 4550. Unfortunately, I covered this position way too early at 4398 and I am still flat. Today, I will again be a buyer on any dip lower to 4280/4380 with the same 4195 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 4470. If this view changes, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Silver Rolling Contract
No Change: I am still flat. I will continue to stay flat Silver until I feel I have a better edge. This is no harm given the extraordinary volatility that we are witnessing at this time. If this view changes, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
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