Monday was another risk-off session, with equity futures paring overnight and morning gains. Equities appeared to play catch-up to the move higher in crude, with WTI and Brent both firmer throughout the session, as WTI settled above USD 100/bbl. The key geopolitical developments were the Houthi’s entering the war for the first time, while US President Trump said talks with Iran were making good progress and he expected a deal to be agreed soon. However, he warned that if no deal is reached, the United States would completely obliterate Iranian energy and power facilities, including Kharg Island. Elevated tensions weighed on sentiment through the day, as equity futures tested the overnight lows before paring some losses into the closing bell while oil settled at highs and post-settlement trade saw further gains for crude benchmarks. The U.S. Dollar was bid against major currencies, except the Japanese Yen, which drew support from a hawkish Bank of Japan, Summary of Opinions and verbal intervention from officials. T-notes were firmer across the curve, amid quarter-end activity or as participants began to assess the broader economic impact of the war beyond its effect on prices. Meanwhile, Fed Chair Powell said policy is in a good place, that policymakers are not yet facing the question of what action to take, and that the tendency is to look through supply shocks, while remaining attentive to inflation expectations, which are well anchored but being monitored closely. Governor Miran largely reiterated his familiar commentary. On metals, aluminium prices surged to 4 -year highs after Iranian airstrikes against two major Middle East producers over the weekend. Fed Chair Powell said differing views within the FOMC are constructive given the current uncertainty, noting risks to both sides of the Fed’s dual mandate. He reiterated that policy is in a good place to “wait and see” as the Fed assesses the economic impact of geopolitical developments and tariffs. He views tariffs as likely a one-time inflation boost of around 0.5–1.0%. While the Fed tends to look through supply shocks, he stressed the importance of monitoring inflation expectations, which remain well anchored, and said the Fed is not yet at the point of deciding its next move. On the outlook, Powell highlighted uncertainty around the size and persistence of the energy shock but maintained optimism over the medium to long term, citing AI-driven productivity gains. When asked about students, he acknowledged that it is currently a challenging time for job creation, particularly for new entrants, but reaffirmed confidence that inflation will return sustainably to target. Regarding private credit, the Fed Chair said he does not see risk of contagion right now but the Fed is watching the market very closely. Fed Member Miran said there is no evidence of a wage price spiral, and such an outcome appears extremely unlikely. Inflation expectations have not been affected yet by elevated oil prices. The uber-dove noted the Fed traditionally looks through oil shocks and would love to hear Powell confirm that the traditional view to the situation applies. On the balance sheet, he remarked it is too big and would like to shrink it, and reiterated policy remains restrictive and wants 100bps of rate cuts in 2026. Elsewhere, Oil closed higher by 4% while Gold had a quiet session, ending Monday’s trading with a gain of 0.35%.
To mark my 3350th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2-Year Rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day to demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it was flat yesterday and is still ahead by 8477 points for March having closed February with a strong gain of 5482 points after ending January with a gain of 4757 points, having closed December with a gain of 2599 points, after ending the month of November with a gain of 4542 points, after ending October with a nice gain of 5110 points after closing September with a gain of 3774 points whe ending August with a gain of 3362 points after closing July with a gain of 3753 points after closing June with a gain of 3530 points, having closed May with a gain of 3606 points, after closing April with a gain of 7685 points after closing March with a gain of 2254 points while closing February with a gain of 4180 points. January ended with a gain of 2768 points while 1997 points were gained in December. October ended with a gain of 2179 points, after closing September with a gain of 4402 points, following a loss of 301 points in August. July gained 1908 points while June saw a gain of 2074 points. The Platinum Service made a record 9619 points in October 2022. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 2300 points. I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking HERE Please subscribe to this for new interview notification
Equities
The S&P 500 closed 0.39% lower at a price of 6343.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 49 points higher for a 0.11% gain at a price of 45,216.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 0.78% lower at a price of 22,953.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 0.94% higher.
Yesterday, the MSCI Asia Pacific closed 0.9% lower.
Yesterday, the Nikkei closed 2.79% lower at a price of 51,885.
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.35% higher.
The Euro closed 0.41% lower at $1.1461.
The British Pound closed 0.52% lower at $1.3188.
The Japanese Yen rose 0.49% closing at $159.51.
Bonds
U.K.’s 10-Year Gilt closed 4 basis points lower at 4.88%.
Germany’s 10-Year Bund Yield closed 6 basis points lower at 3.05%
U.S.10 Year Treasury closed 80 basis points lower at 4.35%.
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude closed 3.77% higher at $103.40 a barrel.
Gold closed 0.35% higher at $4516.10 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front we have U.K. GDP and German Retail Sales at 7.00 am. Next, we have German Unemployment at 8.55 am and Euro-Zone CPI at 10.00 am. This is followed by U.S House Price Index at 3.00 pm. Next, we have the Chicago Fed PMI at 2.45 pm, Consumer Confidence and JOLTS Job Openings at 3.00 pm. Finally, we have speeches from Fed Members Goolsbee and Barr at 5.00 pm and 8.00 pm respectively.
Cash S&P 500
Two key takes from Monday’s session which surprised me: The VIX actually closed 2% lower despite the rise in oil prices and with the exception of the Dow all three main American Indexes closed lower. Secondly, which really surprised me was the McClellan Oscillator improving from Friday’s -137 reading to close last night at -114. This implies that internally the market has not worsened over the past week despite the drop in equity prices. The Fear & Greed Index closed with an even more extreme fear reading of 9. This backdrop implies that prices are close to a meaningful bottom. For anyone who was not long the S&P over the weekend the market traded as low as 6319 shortly after the Futures Market opened on Sunday evening before rallying to a Monday morning high at 6439. However, the pressure of higher oil prices finally weighed on the market as we dropped over 100 Handles into the Chicago close. I am still long at an average rate of 6433 with the same no stop. I will now lower my T/P level to 6450 and reassess especially as today is month and Quarter End. If this view changes, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
EUR/USD
The Euro hit my second buy level at 1.1450 for a now 1.1485 average long position. I will leave my 1.1385 ‘Closing Stop’ unchanged while lowering my T/P level to 1.1550. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Dollar Index
I am still flat. As I am long the Euro, I will now raise my Dollar sell level to 100.80/101.50 with a higher 102.25 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 100.10.
Russell 2000
I am still long the Russell from Friday at a price of 2470. I will add to this position at 2400 while lowering my ‘Closing Stop’ to 2335. I will also lower my T/P level to 2510. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
FTSE 100
Frustratingly the FTSE just missed Monday’s buy range before rallying 300 points off its 9850 low print. Although the FTSE had a small move lower of these highs into the close, I think the low for the FTSE may be in short-term. Today, I will raise my FTSE buy level to 9880/9970 with a higher 9795 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 10060.
Dow Rolling Contract
I am still flat as the Dow never came close to Monday’s buy range. Given the fact that I am long the S&P, NDX and Russell, I will not chase the Dow higher. Therefore, I will continue to be a buyer 44250/44550 With the same 43895 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 44980.
Cash NASDAQ 100
Just before Monday’s close the NDX hit my buy range for a now 22870 long position. I will continue to look to add to this position on any further move lower to 23630 with the same 22495 tight ‘Closing Stop’. I will now lower my T/P level to 23240. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
December BUND
I am still long the Bund from last Friday at an average rate of 125.75. I will leave my 124.75 ‘Closing Stop’ unchanged while lowering my T/P level to 126.25. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Gold Rolling Contract
No Change: Today, I will again be a buyer on any dip lower to 4280/4380 with the same 4195 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 4470. If this view changes, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Silver Rolling Contract
No Change: I am still flat. I will continue to stay flat Silver until I feel I have a better edge. This is no harm given the extraordinary volatility that we are witnessing at this time. If this view changes, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
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