U.S. Equity Markets edged to fresh record highs in light trading as investors chased gains that have added more than $5 trillion to valuations this year. Treasuries declined. The S&P 500 gained for the eighth time in nine sessions, notching another all-time high after China said it cut tariffs on a wide range of goods. The holiday week took a toll on the benchmark’s volume, which was more than 20% below its 100-day average for most of the day. The Dow Jones Industrial Average paced indexes as Boeing Co. surged after the company ousted Chief Executive Officer Dennis Muilenburg. Ten-year Treasury yields rose to around 1.93%, 16 basis points higher than where it started the month. The US Dollar headed for only its fourth monthly decline of the year, while the Pound padded its worst week in more than two years amid Brexit fears.
To mark my 1975th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2 year rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day To demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 29 points yesterday and is now ahead by 815 points for December, having made 780 points in November, 1649 points in October, 1620 points in September, 2387 points in August, 1153 points in July, 1346 points in June,1722 points in May, 955 points in April and 1027 points in March. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1600 points
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Equities
It is a combination of low volume but also the fact that you have seen some progress with China, and it’s really causing the bulls to jump in here over the past few weeks, We did not see a lot of selling pressure yesterday. Major asset classes are collectively on track for the best returns in a decade in 2019 after central banks around the world eased monetary policy. Trade tensions have also eased ahead of the year-end, calming investors’ nerves. The signing of the first-phase of the U.S.-China trade deal is set for January. Meanwhile, Chinese shares dropped after a state-backed fund said it would pare its stakes in some tech companies.
The S&P 500 Index gained 0.1%, closing a new record high at 3124.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index was little changed.
The U.K.‘s FTSE 100 Index advanced 0.5%.
The MSCI Emerging Market Index increased 0.3%.
Currencies
Here is a summary of the main Changes in F.X. Markets:
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed.
The Euro increased 0.1% to $1.1092.
The British Pound declined 0.4% to $1.2944.
The Japanese Yen rose 0.1% to 109.36 per dollar.
Bonds
The yield on 10-year Treasuries rose one basis point to 1.93%.
Germany’s 10-year yield gained less than one basis point to -0.24%.
Britain’s 10-year yield sank one basis point to 0.771%.
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude rose 0.5% at $60.73 a barrel.
Gold added 0.6% to $1,489.30 an ounce.
With most of Europe closed today for Christmas Eve, the only Economic Data of note is the Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index which will be released at 3.00 pm. Meanwhile, Chinese Premier Li Keqiang hosts a summit with Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and South Korean President Moon Jae-today in Chengdu, which be focused on trade.
March S&P 500
Trading slowed to a crawl yesterday but given the extreme bullish sentiment once volume picks up again, the action should be almost exclusively to the downside. Yesterday the ‘’Fear & Greed’’ Index closed at a new ‘’Extreme Greed’’ high for the year at 92. Remember it was the reverse last December when we had an ‘’Extreme Fear’’ reading of just 5 when the S&P bottomed near the 2200 level before this massive rally started. Interesting the McClellan Oscillator fell for the second consecutive trading session despite the three US Indices closing at or near new all-time highs. I am still short the S&P at an average rate of 3213 with the same 3233 stop. I will leave my T/P level unchanged at 3210. If I am stopped out of this position I will be a more aggressive seller from 3245/3260 with a 3272 stop. I will continue to be a strong buyer on any dip lower to 3160/3180 with a 3149 stop.
EUR/USD
No Change as I am still long the Euro from last Friday at 1.1095 with the same 1.1110 T/P level. In a change to yesterday’s commentary I will look to add to this position on any further dip lower to 1.1045. Meanwhile I will leave my 1.1025 stop unchanged and if any of the above levels are hit I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
March Dollar Index
No Change as I am still a small seller from 97.55/97.95 with a 98.20 stop.
March DAX
I am still flat the DAX as the market did not hit my buy range yesterday. The German Markets are now closed until Friday and I will also stay flat until my next Daily Commentary on Monday.
March FTSE
The accelerated sell-off in Cable which is now trading 600 points below the Exit Poll high of 1.3550 saw the FTSE advance 0.5% yesterday. The FTSE is now trading 10% higher since the end of November and is severely overbought. Yesterday’s move higher has me short in small size at 7550. I will add to this position at a price of 7610 with a now higher 7640 stop. I will also raise my T/P level on this position to 7530 and if any of the above levels are hit I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Dow Rolling Contract
No Change as I am still short the Dow in small size at 28500 from last Friday. I will continue to add to this position but only on a further move higher to 28700. I will leave my stop unchanged at 28780 while raising my T/P level to 28460. Again, if any of the above levels are hit I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
March NASDAQ
I am still flat the NASDAQ. As I have three open Equity positions I am going to stay flat the NASDAQ until next Monday as I do not want to increase the number of short equity positions at this time. For new members the past few weeks is the first time that I have pressed the downside for Equity Markets in nearly five years.
March BUND
After the Bund traded lower to my 171.45 buy level I emailed my Platinum Members to exit any long position as the Bund is now closed until Friday. I covered this position at 171.49. My next Bund commentary will be on Monday.
Gold Rolling Contract
The precious metals are following my road map as both Gold and Silver have put in a possible significant bottom for the fifth consecutive December. Today I will raise my Gold buy level to 1465/1475 with a higher 1458 stop.
Silver Rolling Contract
My Silver plan worked well with the market trading lower to my 17.30 buy level with a 17.27 low print before rallying overnight to my 17.55 T/P level and I am now flat. Today I will again look to buy the market on any dip lower to 17.10/17.50 with a 16.75 tight stop.
Finally, I would like to wish everyone a Merry Christmas and be sure to take a restful break with family and friends over the coming days. My next Daily Commentary will be on Monday 30 December 2019. If any of the above calls are hit during the week I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
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