U.S. stocks rallied to all-time highs after a trade truce with China, though finished well off highs of the day as measures of manufacturing activity showed growth slowing in the world’s largest economy. Treasuries fell with Gold. The S&P 500 ended at a record for the first time in 10 days, led by a surge in chipmakers after President Donald Trump agreed to ease a ban on American companies supplying Chinese tech giant Huawei. The Nasdaq 100 hit a two-month high. Industrial shares underperformed, as a U.S. manufacturing gauge showed orders stalled last month. The U.S. data came after a series of weak Factory Reports from major economies around world reaffirmed speculation that global central banks will remain on track with easier monetary policy. The 10-year Treasury yield climbed even as futures traders still priced in almost 75 basis points of rate cuts this year by the Federal Reserve. Gold slid 1.4%. Crude advanced toward $60 a barrel, after major producers agreed to extend output cuts. Stocks in Shanghai and Tokyo led Asian gains, while markets in Hong Kong were closed for a holiday as a new wave of unrest hit the city. Overnight it was announced that the RBA cut its Cash Rate in Australia from 1.25% to 1.00% citing a weaker economy.
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For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 140 points on the first trading session for July, having made 1346 points in June,1722 points in May, 955 points in April, 1027 points in March, 1013 points in February and 1671 points in January. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1600 points
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Equities
Traders seem cautiously optimistic in the wake of the G-20 gathering, though the move to delay further tariffs and resume talks doesn’t offer much clarity on the critical issues. Investors have also been assessing global growth as a series of major purchasing manager readings on Monday showed declines. The S&P 500 Index climbed 0.8% to close at a new all-time high of 2964. The Nasdaq 100 Index rose 1.3% and the Dow added 0.4%. In Europe, the Stoxx Europe 600 Index gained 0.8% to the highest in almost two months on the biggest rise in almost two weeks. Swiss stocks rose as much as 1.3% as never-before-tested provisions to safeguard liquidity kicked in following a showdown with the European Union
Currencies
Here is a summary of the main changes in F.X. Markets:
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index increased 0.5% to the highest in more than a week on the largest climb in more than two weeks.
The Euro dipped 0.8% to $1.1285, as data showed manufacturers in the region remained firmly stuck in a slump last month, and as leaders failed again to agree who will fill key European Union roles, including the Presidency of the Central Bank
The Japanese Yen fell 0.5% to 108.46 per dollar, the weakest in almost two weeks.
Elsewhere, the lira rallied after Trump indicated he may reassess his threats to sanction Turkey if it goes ahead with a Russian missile purchase.
Bonds
The yield on 10-year Treasuries gained three basis points to 2.04%. In Europe, Germany’s 10-year yield climbed three basis points to -0.36%, another new all-time low in yields. Italian bonds surged, reflecting optimism that the European Commission won’t penalize the nation this summer over its budget deficit.
Commodities
Gold sank 1.9% to $1,384.10 an ounce, the weakest in more than a week on the biggest tumble in more than one year. West Texas Intermediate crude rose 0.2% to $58.55 a barrel after briefly topping $60.
This morning on the Economic Front we already had the release of German Retail Sales which were a shocker coming in with a print of -0.6% versus +0.5% expected. At 10.00 am we have Euro-Zone PPI and this is followed at 10.30 am by a speech from RBA Governor Lowe where he will explain the reasoning behind this morning’s 0.25% rate cut. Next we have a speech from Fed Member Williams at 11.35 am. Finally, at 2.45 pm we have the New York ISM Business Conditions Index.
September S&P 500
The major U.S. Stock Indexes gapped higher at yesterday’s open, but the S&P 500 was the only major index to make a new high, before subsequently selling off. Frustratingly the S&P missed my 2955 buy level with a 2955.50 low print before rallying to trade back above 2971 this morning. Today I will move my buy level higher to 2948/2958 with a 2939 stop. My only interest in selling the S&P is still from 2992/3002 with the same 3015 stop.
EUR/USD
Late yesterday the Euro traded lower to my 1.1285 buy level. I am still long with a now higher 1.1249 stop. I will also lower my T/P level on this position to 1.1300 and if any of the above levels are filled I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
September Dollar Index
I am still flat the Dollar which had a nice rally yesterday. I will now raise my buy level to 95.60/96.00 with a higher 95.25 stop.
September DAX
No Change as my only interest in buying the market is still on a dip lower to 12390/12460 with the same 12335 stop.
September FTSE
My FTSE plan worked well with the market trading higher to my 7460 sell level before selling of 40 points and I used this move lower to cover this short position at my revised 7440 T/P level and I am now flat. Today I will again look to sell the FTSE from 7480/7530 with a 7565 stop. I still do not want to be long the market at this time.
Dow Rolling Contract
The Dow did not confirm the new all-time high in the S&P despite the huge gap opening when the US Markets opened yesterday afternoon. The high was 26890 which is below the June 21, high of 26907 and the October 3, 2018 all-time high of 26951. The Dow eventually sold off to my 26650 buy level before rallying to my revised 27000 T/P level and I am now flat. Today I will again look to buy the Dow on any dip lower to 26450/26600 with a 26380 tight stop. I still believe the Dow will make a new high and as a result I still do not want to be short the market at this time.
September NASDAQ
No Change as I am still a seller on any rally higher to 7870/7920 with a 7965 tight stop.
September BUND
The Bund keeps making new highs in price and record lows in yield almost every day. This morning’s awfully weak Retail Sales will not help the bears of the Bund. Yesterday’s aggressive move higher saw the Bund hit my 173.20 sell level. I am still short and today I will now raise my T/P level on this position to 172.98. I will leave my stop unchanged at 173.55.
Gold Rolling Contract
My Long 1385 Gold position worked well with the market trading below my buy level after I posted before rallying to a rebound high of 1396. This move higher enabled me to cover this position at my 1392 T/P level and I am now flat. If Gold can hold the key 1350/1375 support area then I would expect Gold to make new all-time highs over the coming days/weeks. Today I will again look to buy the market on any dip lower to 1368/1378 with a 1359 stop.
Silver Rolling Contract
I am still flat Silver and today I will raise my buy level to 14.70/15.10 with a higher 14.35 stop.
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