U.S. Equities gained, led by FANG shares, while European stocks pared losses following a mixed session in Asia as a big week for central-bank policy gets underway. Crude oil slumped for the first time in three days. Facebook, Apple, Netflix and Google parent Alphabet led the Nasdaq Composite higher, while the Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed little changed. Deutsche Bank boosted lenders on reports that it’s considering creating a “non-core unit” to wind down legacy assets as part of a broader overhaul. Japanese and Australian shares declined, while equities in Hong Kong rose after the government suspended a controversial extradition bill. The US Dollar briefly weakened after a Federal Reserve survey of factories in New York State plunged in June by the most on record, before climbing back from the day’s lows. Treasuries pared a drop on the news, but they stayed mostly lower alongside European bonds as investors looked ahead to a week in which the Fed, the Bank of Japan and the Bank of England all set monetary policy.
To mark my 1850th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2 year rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day To demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 70 points yesterday and is now ahead by 738 points for June, having made 1722 points in May, 955 points in April, 1027 points in March, 1013 points in February and 1671 points in January. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1600 points
I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given. This can be viewed by clicking HERE Please subscribe to this for new interview notification
Equities
We’ will find out tomorrow if the market is right about how dovish it is when it comes to monetary policy, with the FOMC Statement due at 7.00 pm. What we are looking for is affirmation of where the market is already, and anything that fails to affirm that probably is a negative toward the S&P 500. Investors will be scrutinizing the Fed’s decision and messaging on Wednesday for signals on the chances of rates cuts ahead. Meanwhile, U.S. Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross reiterated that the prospect of a major trade deal is unlikely to emerge from a possible meeting between President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping at the Group of 20 summit in Osaka this month. The S&P 500 Index rose 0.1% to close at 2890 on thin volume, while the Nasdaq Composite Index gained 0.6% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased 0.1%. The Stoxx Europe 600 eased less than 0.1%. Meanwhile the MSCI Emerging Market Index dropped 0.4% and the MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell 0.4%, the fourth consecutive decline.
Currencies
Here is a summary of the main changes in F.X. Markets:
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose less than 0.1%.
The Euro rose less than 0.1% to $1.1218, while the Japanese Yen was little changed at 108.57 per dollar.
The only currency to see any sort of movement was the British pound which fell to a new closing low for the year at $1.2542.
The MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index fell 0.1%, the fourth consecutive decline.
Bonds
We know that the Fed does not like to surprise people and the idea at this point of them digging in their heels and saying ’absolutely no cuts,’ I think is very unlikely. As a result, the US Treasuries traded sideways with the yield on 10-year Treasuries rising less than 1 basis point to 2.09%. Germany’s 10-year yield rose 1 basis point to negative 0.25%.
Commodities
Elsewhere, Oil futures fell as Saudi Arabia expressed hope that OPEC and its allies will agree to extend production cuts into the second half. West Texas Intermediate fell 1.2% to $51.87 a barrel, the first drop in three trading sessions. Gold dropped 0.2% to $1,339 an ounce. Meanwhile, Bitcoin jumped as much as 11%, heading toward its highest close in more than a year.
This morning on the Economic Front we have the German and Euro-Zone ZEW Survey at 10.00 am. Also at the same time we have the release of Euro-Zone CPI and Trade Balance. This is followed at 1.30 pm by US Building Permits and Housing Starts. Finally we have speeches from the ECB’s Dragi, and Lane and Bank of England Governor Carney this afternoon.
June S&P 500
Unfortunately all my buy levels in the equity Indices just missed by the smallest fraction yesterday before subsequently rallying and I am still flat. If you did buy in front of any of my buy levels then you should have made a nice gain. Yesterday was one of the slowest trading sessions of the year as the markets are on hold ahead of the FOMC Statement and Powell press conference tomorrow evening. Today I will lower my S&P buy level slightly to 2872/2882 with a 2865 stop. I still do not want to be short the S&P at this time.
EUR/USD
The Euro continues to hold the key 1.1180/1.1220 support level and I am still flat. Despite the awful June New York Manufacturing Index reading the Dollar reversed its initial sell-off. Today I will still look to sell the market on any rally higher to 1.1290/1.1330 with a higher 1.1365 stop.
September Dollar Index
My short 97.10 Dollar position worked well with the market eventually selling off to my 96.85 T/P level after the release of the above mentioned New York Empire Manufacturing data. I am still flat and today I will again look to sell the Dollar from 97.15/97.55 with a 97.85 stop.
June DAX
I am still flat the market and today I will now lower my buy level to 11950/12010 with a 11895 stop.
June FTSE
No Change as I am still a buyer on any dip lower to 7280/7320 with the same 7245 stop. With Cable making new lows for the year I would have expected the FTSE to have closed higher. As a result of this negative price action I will now lower my sell level to 7415/7445 with a 7475 stop.
Dow Rolling Contract
I am still flat the Dow which just missed my buy level yesterday before rallying over 100 points. The McClellan Oscillator closed at +59 last night which is the exact same reading as last Friday – something I have never seen happen before – which gives you an idea of much the market is on hold ahead of the FOMC tomorrow. The VIX closed at 15.35 just above its 50 Day Moving Average which comes in at 15.28. A meaningful close below this key support could well see a nice pop in the Dow. Today I will leave my 25870/26030 buy level unchanged with the same 25780 stop.
June NASDAQ
I am still flat and today I will now raise my buy level to 7450/7510 with a 7395 higher stop. I still do not want to be short the NASDAQ at this time.
September BUND
This morning the Bund is again trading near all-time highs at -26 basis points. I am still flat and I will leave my 171.95/172.35 sell level unchanged with the same 172.65 stop.
Gold Rolling Contract
My 1338 long Gold position worked well with the market trading higher to my revised 1342.50 T/P level with an overnight high of 1348. Gold which broke its February 20 high of 1348 last Friday with a high of 1358 has now closed below this level for the last two sessions which is a worry for the bulls. Money Managed Accounts have gone from a record net-short 103,009 Futures Contracts in October 2018 to a net-long 156,718 contracts as of last week. This is the largest net-long position since March 2018, before the market fell hard. Today I will now look to sell Gold on any further rally to 1359/1367 with a 1374 stop.
Silver Rolling Contract
I am still long Silver at 14.95 with a now lower 15.00 T/P level. Silver has now underperformed Gold for the past four months since the Feb High of 1348 in Gold. Silver’s equivalent price on that day was 16.25. This bearish non-confirmation should eventually resolve in a decline in both Gold and Silver, hence the reason for lowering my Silver T/P level. I will also raise my stop on this position to 14.69.
Recent Comments