U.S. Equity Markets declined as investors mulled the implications of the partial trade deal reached last week between the U.S. and China. Oil retreated and the U.S. Dollar strengthened. The S&P 500 Index had fluctuated most of Monday after China appeared to pour cold water on a pact touted by President Donald Trump, with people familiar with the situation saying it wanted to iron out details before signing it. Trading was about 28% below the 30-day average. A tweet from the Global Times’ editor-in-chief painted a more optimistic outlook, gave equities some support. U.S. debt markets were closed for the Columbus Day holiday.
To mark my 1925th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2 year rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day To demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it was flat yesterday and is still ahead by 795 points for October, having made 1620 points in September, 2387 points in August, 1153 points in July, 1346 points in June,1722 points in May, 955 points in April and 1027 points in March. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1600 points
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Equities
“I expect there will be a deal,” Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said Monday on CNBC television. The sides made “substantial progress” last week in negotiations and Mnuchin said he expects Trump and President Xi Jinping to finalize the accord at a summit in Chile next month. The iShares MSCI Turkey ETF slumped 3.9%. Trump said on Twitter that the U.S. will increase steel tariffs on Turkey back up to 50%. He also said some Turkish officials will also face sanctions and the U.S. will also stop trade negotiations with Turkey. Earlier, the nation’s stock market tumbled and its currency eased.
The S&P 500 Index fell 0.1% to close at 2966.
The Stoxx Europe 600 sank 0.5%, giving back some of Friday’s 2.3% rise. 2.3%.
Germany’s DAX declined 0.2% to close at 12,486.
Currencies
Here is a summary of the main changes in F.X. Markets:
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index advanced 0.2%, the biggest gain in a week.
The Euro fell 0.2% to close at $1.1020.
The British Pound weakened, after rocketing for the past two sessions, as European Union negotiators warned that Brexit plans from U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson are not yet good enough to be the basis for an agreement, closing 0.2% lower at $1.2620.
The Japanese Yen fell 0.1% to 108.30 per dollar.
Bonds
The yield on 10-year Treasuries gained nine basis points to 1.75%.
Germany’s 10-year yield dipped two basis points to -0.47%.
Britain’s 10-year yield declined 7 basis points to 0.637%, the largest decrease in three weeks.
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude declined 2.3% to $53.47 a barrel, the largest drop in two weeks.
Gold strengthened 0.2% to $1,492.57 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front we have UK Unemployment and Average Earnings at 9.30 am. This is followed at 10.00 am by German and Euro-Zone ZEW Survey. Next we have the New York Empire State Manufacturing Index. Finally, at 1.45 pm we have a speech by the Bank of England’s Vlieghe.
December S&P 500
If the U.S Stock Markets were closed yesterday you might not have known the difference as the movements yesterday was the slowest, full trading day of the year. Total stock market volume was 4.75 billion shares traded. The only slower day was July 3, which was a shortened session. Frustratingly the S&P just missed my initial 2953 buy level with a 2953.75 low print before rallying and I am still flat. We still have this massive ‘’Open Gap’’ from last Thursday at 2938 and for this reason I am reluctant to chase the S&P higher. I will leave my 2938/2953 buy level unchanged with the same 2928 stop. I still do not want to be short the S&P at this time.
EUR/USD
No Change as I am still a small buyer on any dip lower to 1.0940/1.0980 with the same 1.0895 stop. The Euro has resistance from 1.1100/1.1160 and I will be a seller on any rally to this area with a 1.1195 lower stop.
December NASDAQ
No Change as I am still a seller from 98.45/98.85 with a 99.45 stop.
December DAX
With most US traders on holiday the European Bourses traded in narrow ranges as we wait for the key ZEW Survey at 10.00 am. I will leave my 12270/12340 buy level unchanged with the same 12205 tight stop. Despite the DAX trading overbought I still do not want to be short the market at this time.
December FTSE
I am still flat the FTSE and today I will now lower my buy level to 7085/7135 with a 7050 stop.
Dow Rolling Contract
The sideways trading yesterday saw the VIX fall another 6% to close at 14.65, which is seven points below the 21.60 high a couple of weeks ago. There is no doubt that every time the VIX breaks 20 it does not stay there for very long. The VIX is now oversold and this has me on watch for another move lower in U.S Indices. Today I will lower my Dow sell level to 26960/27120 with a 27205 stop.
December NASDAQ
I am still flat the NASDAQ and I will also lower my sell level to 7915/7965 with a 8005 stop. I still do not want to be long the NASDAQ at this time.
December BUND
The BUND rallied from the off yesterday morning which is no surprise given the fact that it had fallen three hundred points in a few days. Today I will raise my buy level to 171.40/171.90 with a higher 170.95 stop.
Gold Rolling Contract
No Change as I am still a buyer from 1455/1465 with a 1447 stop.
Silver Rolling Contract
I am still flat Silver and today I will raise my buy level to 17.00/17.40 with a higher 16.65 stop. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 17.65.
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