U.S. Equity Markets fell amid concern that the U.S. and China are struggling to get an initial trade deal done.The S&P 500 dropped for first time in four sessions in trading nearly 20% below its average of the last 100 days. President Donald Trump’s tariff comments over the weekend sparked the decline after trade optimism sent stocks to multiple records last week. In company news, Qualcomm Inc. slid after a downgrade, while Walgreens Boots Alliance Inc. surged following a Bloomberg News report that said KKR & Co. formally approached the company about a deal to take it private. Boeing Co. jumped after saying it may resume 737 Max deliveries next month, which helped erase losses on the Dow Jones Industrial Average. The US Dollar fell for the first time in six days. The Pound rallied as Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s efforts to leave the European Union got a boost from the Brexit Party. The Treasury market was closed for the Veterans Day holiday.
To mark my 1950th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2 year rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day To demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it was made 16 points yesterday and is now ahead by 283 points for November, having made 1649 points in October, 1620 points in September, 2387 points in August, 1153 points in July, 1346 points in June,1722 points in May, 955 points in April and 1027 points in March. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1600 points
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Equities
Investors are on watch for any headlines that could point to a first-phase trade deal between the U.S. and China after mixed messages from the White House and delayed meetings have heightened concerns that negotiations are stumbling. At the same time, data showed Chinese factory-gate prices dropping for a fourth month, increasing worries about the effect of the trade war on the world’s second-biggest economy.
Elsewhere, Emerging Market shares fell the most in more than two months as stocks tumbled in Hong Kong amid violent clashes after a protester was shot by police.
The S&P 500 Index fell 0.2% to close at 3087.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index was little changed.
The MSCI Emerging Market Index fell 1.1%, the most since Aug. 26.
Currencies
Here is a summary of the main Changes in F.X. Markets:
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index declined 0.1%.
The Euro advanced 0.1% to $1.1033.
The British Pound jumped 0.6% to $1.2853.
The Japanese Yen increased 0.2% to 109.02 per dollar.
Bonds
Germany’s 10-year yield rose two basis points at -0.245%.
Britain’s 10-year yield gained two basis points at 0.811%.
Japan’s 10-year yield declined one basis point to -0.063%.
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude fell 0.7% at $56.87 a barrel.
Gold fell 0.2% to $1,455.51 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front we have UK Average Earnings and Unemployment at 9.30 am. This is followed at 10.00 am by the German and Euro-Zone ZEW Survey. At 11.00 am we have the U.S. NFIB Business Survey. Finally we have a host of speakers from both the ECB and Fed today. This morning it is the turn of the ECB’s Coeure and Mersch at 8.00 am and 8.30 am respectively, followed this afternoon by the FED’s Barker and Harkin at 5.00 pm and 6.00 pm respectively.
December S&P 500
Frustratingly the S&P missed my 3073 buy level with a 3074.50 low print before rallying to close at 3087 and I am still flat. I discussed at length about the record number of short VIX Futures Contracts last week. Large Speculators have now moved to a new all-time record short position of 203,598 Contracts which is 42% of Total Open Interest. Markets historically do not reward record large speculator positions. Yesterday the VIX rose 5% to close at 12.70 and along with the McClellan Oscillator I am watching these two indicators closely for a reversal in the market. Last night the MO closed weaker at -43. Today I will lower my buy level to 3060/3070 buy level unchanged with the same 3052 stop. I will now raise my sell level slightly to 3103/3118 with a higher 3126 stop.
EUR/USD
I am still flat the Euro and today I will raise my buy level to 1.0950/1.0990 with a 1.0915 stop. I will also raise my sell level slightly to 1.1090/1.1130 with a now higher 1.1165 stop.
December Dollar Index
No Change as my only interest in selling the Dollar is still on a rally higher to 98.30/98.70 with the same 99.05 stop.
December DAX
The DAX sold off today to a low of 13135 before turning around and rallying 100 points into the New York close. I am still flat and today I will leave my 13330/13390 sell level unchanged with the same tight 13435 stop.
December FTSE
My FTSE plan worked well with the market trading the whole of my buy range for a 7270 average long position before rallying to close higher at 7320. I used this rally to cover my position at my revised 7286 T/P level and I am now flat. Today I will again look to buy the market on any dip lower to 7210/7250 with a 7170 stop. I still do not want to be short the FTSE at this time.
Dow Rolling Contract
Although the Dow closed at a new record high today I am still reluctant to chase this market higher for the reasons described in my S&P Commentary above. Today I will raise my sell level slightly to 27830/27980 with the same 28060 stop. Despite the Dow rallying 200 points off yesterday’s 27500 low print into the close I still do not want to be long the market at this time.
December NASDAQ
I am still flat the NASDAQ as the market struggles to break higher from here. This is no surprise given its large percentage gain over the past few weeks. Today I will leave my 8295/8355 sell level unchanged with an 8390 stop.
December BUND
The BUND came close to my initial 169.40 buy level before having a small rally into the close and I am still flat. Today I will lower my buy level to 168.85/169.25 with a lower 168.50 stop.
Gold Rolling Contract
Gold made a low of 1448.30 yesterday which was just above my initial 1448 buy level before rallying to close $10 higher which is frustrating. Worryingly for the bulls as the Large Speculators still net-long 39.2% of the Total Open Interest, or 301,681 Contracts which is a large position. Today I will lower my buy level to 1432/1442 with a lower 1424 stop. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 1449.
Silver Rolling Contract
I am still flat Silver which again performed better than Gold. I am not going to chase the market higher and I will leave my 16.00/16.40 buy level unchanged with the same 15.65 stop. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 16.68.
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