U.S. Equity Markets fell in thin trading as investors turned cautious ahead of a week full of potential catalysts, from central bank meetings to a looming tariff deadline. Treasury 10-year notes held modest gains. The S&P 500 ended at session lows in volumes below the 30-day average. Weak China export data added to concern, with investors awaiting news on whether Washington will go ahead with a planned Dec. 15 tariff hike. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index retreated. Stock indexes posted modest increases in Tokyo and Seoul, though gains mostly fizzled in Hong Kong and Shanghai. The Pound edged higher as polls continued to show the U.K. Conservative Party on course to win a majority in Thursday’s election, which would likely mean Britain leaving the European Union by Jan. 31. Gold and the Japanese Yen were also slightly higher. With time running out for the U.S. and China to reach a deal that would ward off an escalation in tariffs, markets will be watching closely for any signs of progress. White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow said Friday the two sides are haggling over the amount of American farm products Beijing is willing to purchase. Data showed China’s exports fell 1.1% in November, with those to the U.S. tumbling 23%, underscoring why the Asian nation may want to resolve the dispute.
To mark my 1950th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2 year rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day To demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 50 points yesterday and is now ahead by 205 points for December, having made 780 points in November, 1649 points in October, 1620 points in September, 2387 points in August, 1153 points in July, 1346 points in June,1722 points in May, 955 points in April and 1027 points in March. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1600 points
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Equities
Also, in focus for investors this week will be central banks, with policy meetings at the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank that may offer clues on whether more monetary easing is in store in 2020.
The S&P 500 declined 0.3% to close at 3,136.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average decreased 0.3% to close at 27,943.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index fell 0.4%.
The MSCI Asia Pacific Index dipped 0.1%.
Currencies
Here is a summary of the main Changes in F.X. Markets:
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.1%.
The Euro was little changed at $1.106.
The Japanese Yen was also little changed at 108.55 per dollar.
Bonds
The yield on 10-year Treasuries dipped one basis point to 1.83%.
Germany’s 10-year yield fell two basis points to -0.31%.
Britain’s 10-year yield fell less than one basis point to 0.762%.
Commodities
Oil slipped, trimming last week’s rally spurred by Saudi Arabia promising significant additional production cuts beyond what was agreed with fellow OPEC+ members.
The Bloomberg Commodity Index was little changed.
West Texas Intermediate crude fell 0.4% to $58.80 a barrel.
Gold Futures were flat at $1,465.10 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front we have UK Trade Balance, Industrial/Manufacturing Production, Index of Services and GDP at 9.30 am. This is followed by the German and Euro-Zone ZEW Survey at 10.00 am. Finally, we have the U.S. NFIB Business Optimism at 11.00 am and the Non-Farm Productivity including Unit Labour Costs at 1.30 pm.
December S&P 500
With the VIX surprisingly surging yesterday by a whooping 16.50% to close at 15.86, the S&P having traded sideways for most of the session on low volume finally sold off into the close. I keep saying about the value of my Platinum Service as the updated emails are key in my opinion as it allows me to change my buy/sell recommendations during the day. When the VIX started to rise I emailed my Platinum Members to lower their S&P buy level to 3134 before exiting this position this morning at 3138 and I am now flat. The High Volume price in the S&P has moved higher suggesting we should see an unbalanced move higher into year-end. As long as the S&P does not close below 3116 there is every chance the S&P can trade to as high as 3300/3350 over the coming weeks before as I mentioned yesterday we will finally see our long awaited crash. Today my buy level will be from 3116/3126 with a lower 3107 stop. It is interesting that despite the surge in the VIX and lower close in the market that the McClellan Oscillator still closed in positive territory last night only falling 10 points by finishing with a +20 print.
EUR/USD
The boring sideways action in the Euro shows no sign of ending and I am still flat. I am still a buyer on any dip lower to 1.1000/1.1040 with the same 1.0965 stop.
December Dollar Index
No Change as I am still a seller on any rally higher to 97.90/98.30 with the same 98.65 stop.
December DAX
The DAX was heavy all-day yesterday. At 6.30 pm I emailed my Platinum Members to lower their buy level in the DAX and I have now bought the market here in small size at 13020. I will add to this trade at 12950 with a now lower and tight 12915 stop. I will also lower my T/P level on this position to 13070. If any of the above levels are hit I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
December FTSE
I am still flat the FTSE and today I will now lower my buy level to 7120/7165 with a 7085 tight stop. Ahead of Thursday’s Election I still do not want to be short the market at this time.
Dow Rolling Contract
Just like the DAX above the Dow was heavy all day with the market eventually trading lower to my 27935 buy level. I am still long and today I will add to this position at a price of 27780 with a now lower 27650 stop. I will leave my T/P level unchanged at 27965 and if any of the above levels are hit I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
December NASDAQ
It took a while but finally the NASDAQ traded lower to my 8380 T/P level on Friday’s 8390 short position. Overnight the market hit my second buy level at 8360. I am still long with a now higher 8305 stop.
March BUND
I am still flat the Bund as the market never came to close to my buy level. This morning, despite the lower opening to the equity markets the Bund is also trading lower. I am not going to chase the Bund higher and I will leave my 171.40/171.80 buy level unchanged with the same 170.98 tight stop.
Gold Rolling Contract
No Change as I am still a buyer on any dip lower to 1442/1450 with the same 1435 stop.
Silver Rolling Contract
I am still flat Silver and today I will raise my buy level to 16.10/16.50 with the same 15.70 stop.
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