U.S. Equity Markets rallied to new all-time highs, while Treasuries slumped on speculation efforts will succeed at minimizing the economic impact from the coronavirus. Crude oil rallied after tumbling into a bear market. The S&P 500 Index’s three-day gain topped 3%, and the Nasdaq indexes added to records. Risk sentiment got a boost just as I posted yesterday morning after a string of reports on possible vaccines, but the World Health Organization later said there are no proven therapeutics. Treasuries retreated, sending 10-year yields above 1.64%, even as more quarantines were announced in an effort to control the virus. Energy producers surged as crude rallied the most in almost a month on the prospect of OPEC output cuts. Safe Havens including the Japanese Yen and Swiss Franc slipped. The US Dollar rose, with data showing U.S. firms added more jobs than economists’ forecasts in January. Copper jumped 1.7%. The U.S. Senate voted to acquit President Donald Trump on charges he abused his power and obstructed Congress, ending a historic, bitterly partisan fight and leaving the final judgment on his actions up to voters in November. Trump became the third U.S. president to escape removal from office after being impeached by the House in December. Utah Senator Mitt Romney was the only Republican on Wednesday to break with his party and find Trump guilty of seeking a political favour from the Ukrainian government. The Republican-led Senate voted 52-48 to find Trump not guilty of abusing his power and 53-47 to find him not guilty of obstructing Congress.
To mark my 2000th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2 year rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day To demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it lost 34 points yesterday and is now ahead by 182 points for February, having made 2142 points in January, 818 points in December, 780 points in November, 1649 points in October, 1620 points in September and 2387 points in August. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1600 points
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Equities
U.S. stocks continued their torrid rebound from the virus-fomented sell-off as optimism mounted that the spread will be contained and more central banks signalled a willingness to act if the virus undermines demand, inflation and financial markets. Better-than-forecast corporate earnings also continued boost equities.
The S&P 500 Index climbed 1.1% to close at 3334.
The Nasdaq 100 Index added 0.4%, closing at a price of 9367.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average surged 483 points to close at 29,290
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index gained 1.2%.
The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose 0.6%.
Currencies
Here is a summary of the main Changes in F.X. Markets:
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index gained 0.2%.
The British Pound fell 0.3% to $1.2992.
The Euro declined 0.4% to $1.0998.
The Japanese Yen weakened 0.3% to 109.806 per dollar.
Bonds
The yield on 10-year Treasuries rose five basis points to 1.65%.
The two-year rate added three basis points to 1.44%.
Germany’s 10-year yield increased four basis points to -0.36%.
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude increased 2.9% to $51.04 a barrel.
Copper rose 1.7% to $2.578 a pound.
Gold added 0.2% to $1,556.47 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front we already had the release of German Factory Orders which fell 2.1% versus +0.6% expected. At 9.00 am we have Euro-Zone Economic Bulletin and at 10.00 am the European Commission releases Economic Forecasts. This is followed at 1.30 pm by U.S Weekly Jobless Claims, Unit Labour Costs and Non-Farm Productivity. Finally, at 2.15 pm we have a speech from the Fed’s Kaplan.
March S&P 500
Three higher Gap openings this week have seen the S&P rally over 140 Handles from last Friday’s late test of its 50 Day Moving Average as the market just exploded over the past 24 hours. The speed of the rise is almost parabolic. The Fed’s heavy repo purchases have boosted liquidity in the markets again, in essence a return to Quantitative Easing. Thankfully we had no sell levels across any of my five Indices that I cover on a daily basis as yet again shorts have been absolutely crushed. I cannot remember the last time that we have such a series of large ‘’Open Gaps’’ that have so far not been tested. We are on course to have another +18 Handles Gap today when the Cash Markets open in Chicago this afternoon. The S&P is now trading above the top of its Daily Bollinger Band and Williams Index which should mean we will have at least a small correction from near current levels at some stage today. The S&P has resistance from 3358/3370 and I will be a small seller in this area with a 3382 stop. If I am taken short and subsequently stopped out of this position I will be a more aggressive seller from 3390/3410 with a 3422 stop. I will also move my buy level higher to 3295/3310 with a 3286 stop.
EUR/USD
The Euro sold off to my 1.1000 buy level. I am still long and I will look to add to this position at 1.0960. I will leave my stop unchanged at 1.0930 while I will lower my T/P level to 1.1025.
March Dollar Index
This morning I have been stopped out of my 97.78 short position at 98.12 and I am now flat. The Dollar has strong resistance from 98.45/98.85 and I will be an aggressive seller in this range with a 99.15 stop.
March DAX
More weak data out of Germany this morning with Factory Orders falling 2.1%. This is on top of last week’s 3% fall in Retail Sales. It does not matter though as Equity Markets continue to ignore the worsening economic situation. The DAX is now trading 350 points higher from where I posted 24 hours ago as these incredible bull markets show no sign of ending. The DAX has resistance from 13740/13810 and I will be a seller in this area with a 13865 stop.
March FTSE
I am still flat the FTSE and today I will raise my buy level to 7340/7380 with a higher 7295 stop. I still do not want to be short the FTSE at this time.
Dow Rolling Contract
I cannot emphasise enough the importance of my updated emails that are sent to my Platinum Members. Yesterday morning at 7.30 am I emailed them to exit any short Dow position at 28775. This price was available for the next 30 minutes before the market went parabolic on the news of a vaccine for the coronavirus. Thankfully we had no higher sell level in the Dow as we are now trading at 29,480 which is 1300 points higher than the low recorded just before the New York close last Friday. The Dow has strong resistance from 29650/29800 and I will be a seller in this area with a 29905 stop. I will also raise my buy level to 28970/29120 with a 28845 stop.
March NASDAQ
I am still flat the NASDAQ and today I will raise my buy level to 9260/9320 with a 9205 stop. I still do not want to be short the NASDAQ at this time.
March BUND
I am still flat the Bund which has support just below current prices from 172.65/173.05. I will be a buyer in this range with a 172.30 stop.
Gold Rolling Contract
Gold just missed my 1546 buy level before having a small rally into the close and I am still flat. As I am still long Silver I will now lower my buy level slightly to 1532/1542 with a 1525 stop.
Silver Rolling Contract
I am still long Silver at 17.55. I will leave my 17.10 stop unchanged while lowering my T/P level to 17.70. If any of the above levels are hit I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
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