U.S. Indexes continued to advance higher on Wednesday as tailwinds from Tuesday around easing AI disruption fears extended. The Nasdaq outperformed with tech and financials leading the gains. Tech was buoyed by gains in software, recently battered by AI disruption, while gains in NVIDIA (NVDA) also supported it ahead of earnings after-hours. The gains in equities supported overall risk sentiment, with both the Australian and New Zeal Dollar outperforming, but hot Australian CPI led to clear AUD outperformance versus other cyclical currencies. Havens generally lagged with the Yen, Dollar and Franc underperforming. The Japanese Yen was sold after the Japanese government nominated two reflationist academics to join the Bank of Japan, reaffirming Takaichi’s pro-stimulus stance, which led to a steepening of the JGB curve. The pressure in long-end JGBs and positive risk sentiment weighed on Treasuries, while the 2-year FRN and 5-year auctions were soft. Crude prices were relatively flat as eyes turn to US/Iran meetings on Thursday, while OPEC sources suggested delegates will be considering a resumption of output hikes in April. In the US, the EIA Inventory Data saw a chunky build, in line with the private inventory report last night. Gold and Silver saw further gains while Bitcoin staged a recovery, supporting crypto-exposed stocks. Lithium as well as related stocks, gained following Zimbabwe’s suspension of all raw mineral and lithium exports immediately. Fed Member Barkin said there was clear sense that the job market has loosened, and hard to calibrate what is going on with labour supply. Barkin added that inflation data has been consistently above target, and he is hopeful of it retreating to 2%, but wants data to show this clearly. Barkin echoed familiar rhetoric that monetary policy is currently well-positioned for risks. Fed Member Schmid spoke on the balance sheet, noting the main focus of the Fed balance sheet debate is about the size of reserves. However, he is concerned about the duration of it. He said it will take years for the Fed to run off its mortgage bond holdings, adding they will never return to a Fed balance sheet size seen before the financial crisis. He acknowledged that the Fed’s T-bill reserve management has been relatively modest. On the economy, he said the jobs market is in a pretty good place but has work to do on the inflation side. Meanwhile, Collins said the Fed is quite likely to hold current rates for some time, policy is mildly restrictive and may be close to neutral. Collins added that the recent job data has been promising, and while the job market softened last year, it was not soft. On the inflationary footing, the Boston Fed President wants more confidence that it is easing, and her baseline view is that inflation will wane later this year. Collins concluded the latest tariff news has not changed the outlook much. Elsewhere, Oil closed lower by 0.3% while Gold ended Wednesday’s session with a 0.8% gain.
To mark my 3325th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2-Year Rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day to demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it was flat yesterday and is still ahead by 5482 points for February, after ending January with a gain of 4757 points, having closed December with a gain of 2599 points, after ending the month of November with a gain of 4542 points, after ending October with a nice gain of 5110 points after closing September with a gain of 3774 points while ending August with a gain of 3362 points after closing July with a gain of 3753 points after closing June with a gain of 3530 points, having closed May with a gain of 3606 points, after closing April with a gain of 7685 points after closing March with a gain of 2254 points while closing February with a gain of 4180 points. January ended with a gain of 2768 points while 1997 points were gained in December. October ended with a gain of 2179 points, after closing September with a gain of 4402 points, following a loss of 301 points in August. July gained 1908 points while June saw a gain of 2074 points. The Platinum Service made a record 9619 points in October 2022. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 2300 points. I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking HERE Please subscribe to this for new interview notification
Equities
The S&P 500 closed 0.81% higher at a price of 6946.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 307 points higher for a 0.63% gain at a price of 49,482.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 1.41% higher at a price of 25,329.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 0.69% higher.
Yesterday, the MSCI Asia Pacific closed 0.6% higher.
Yesterday, the Nikkei closed 2.20% higher at a price of 58,583.
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.18% lower.
The Euro closed 0.21% higher at $1.1806.
The British Pound closed 0.28% higher at $1.3550.
The Japanese Yen fell 0.45% closing at $156.33.
Bonds
U.K.’s 10-Year Gilt closed 2 basis points higher at 4.32%.
Germany’s 10-Year Bund Yield closed 1 basis points higher at 2.72%
U.S.10 Year Treasury closed 2 basis points higher at 4.04%.
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude closed 0.35% lower at $65.60 a barrel.
Gold closed 0.7% higher at $5165.10 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front we have Euro-Zone Money Supply at 9.00 am and Consumer Confidence at 10.00 am. Next, we have U.S. Weekly Jobless Claims at 1.30 pm. Finally, we have Seven-Year Treasury Auction at 6.00 pm.
Cash S&P 500
The S&P 500 traded the whole of my sell range for a now 6939 average short position per my updated email to my Platinum Members. Record results from NVIDIA saw the S&P hit a post close of 6971 before selling off, trading at a price of 6938 as I go post. I will leave my 6971 ‘Closing Stop’ unchanged while raising my T/P level to 6922. I still believe that given valuations, sentiment etc that we are close to a meaningful top in the market. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
EUR/USD
I am still flat. Today, I will continue to be a buyer on any dip lower 1.1650/1.1730 with the same 1.1575 ‘Closing Stop’. I will also leave my 1.1900/1.1980 sell level unchanged with the same 1.2055 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 1.1800. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 1.1830.
Dollar Index
I am still flat. Today, I will continue to be a buyer on any dip lower to 96.40/97.20 with the same 95.85 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 97.80.
Russell 2000
I am still flat. Today, I will raise my sell level to 2700/2760 with a higher 2815 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken short, I will again have a T/P level at 2655.
FTSE 100
The FTSE surged to a new all-time high and is now ahead by 11% for the year-to-date. Thankfully, we have not shorting been this market over the past few days given the extent of the rally. The FTSE has short-term resistance from 10900/11000 where I will be a small seller with a 11075 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 10810. If this view changes, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Dow Rolling Contract
The Dow never came close to Wednesday’s buy range before rallying 400 points. The Dow has short-term resistance from 50000/50300 where I will be a seller with a 50505 ‘Closing Stop’. I will wait for a meaningful sell-off before initiating a long position. If this view changes, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Cash NASDAQ 100
The NDX surged yesterday and again overnight following the much better results from NVIDIA. This move higher saw the whole of my revised sell range triggered for a now 25300 average short position. I will leave my 25505 ‘Closing Stop’ unchanged while raising my T/P level to 25190 and reassess if executed. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
December BUND
I am still flat. The Bund traded in a narrow 25-point range on Wednesday and I am still flat. In my view there is no value in buying the Bund at these yields. Today, I will continue to be a seller on any further rally to 129.90/130.70 with the same 131.25 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 129.30. I no longer want to be a buyer of the Bund at this time.
Gold Rolling Contract
I am still flat. The Daily top and bottom for Gold’s Bollinger Bank comes in at 5320 and 4700 respectively. Overall, I still believe a correction is warranted especially as the geopolitical risk premium in Gold prices are poised to be priced out over the coming weeks. Gold has short-term resistance from 5300/5400 where I will be a small seller with a 5465 ‘Closing Stop’. Meanwhile, I will continue to be a buyer on any dip lower to 4780/4860 with the same 4685 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 5190. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 4955. If this view changes I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Silver Rolling Contract
Silver hit a high at 91.28 on Wednesday before having a small sell-off into the New York close. Just like Gold above I believe the risk premium for Silver will be priced out over the coming weeks as I patiently wait for a sell-off in order to initiate a new long position. Today, I will leave my 74.50/77.00 buy level unchanged with the same 71.95 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 79.75
Please Note: There will be no Daily Commentary tomorrow. Any of my calls that are not triggered today and are subsequently executed on Friday will see me return with updated emails for my Platinum Members.
Recent Comments