U.S. Equities edged higher in volatile trading as investors considered the potential for a virus that emerged in China to eventually dent economic growth. Oil tumbled on concern the market is oversupplied. The S&P 500 Index ended the day up less than 0.1%, lifted by gains in technology shares and positive earnings reports but held back by concern that the deadly respiratory illness could spread, even as China moved to contain the outbreak. IBM rose the most in four months after revenue beat estimates. Tesla Inc.’s market value soared past $100 billion. With stocks trading near records, investors are on alert for any developments that could derail the momentum. They have taken a cautious stance amid concern the coronavirus that has already killed 17 people could turn into a global pandemic. Elsewhere, the Stoxx Europe 600 Index dipped as Italian banks slumped amid a fresh bout of political turmoil. West Texas oil fell below $58 a barrel as ample global supplies offset the loss of exports from Libya. The Pound strengthened after Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s Brexit deal cleared its final hurdles in Parliament.
To mark my 1975th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2 year rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day To demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 80 points yesterday and is still ahead by 1481 points for January, having made 818 points in December, 780 points in November, 1649 points in October, 1620 points in September, 2387 points in August, 1153 points in July, 1346 points in June,1722 points in May, 955 points in April and 1027 points in March. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1600 points
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Equities
The S&P 500 Index rose less than 0.1% to close basically unchanged at 3221.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average also closed unchanged at 29186.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index fell 0.1%.
The MSCI Asia Pacific Index added 0.6%.
Currencies
Here is a summary of the main Changes in F.X. Markets:
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.1%.
The British Pound jumped 0.6% to $1.3134.
The Euro rose 0.1% to $1.109.
The Japanese Yen was little changed at 109.87 per dollar.
Bonds
The yield on 10-year Treasuries fell one basis point to 1.77%.
Germany’s 10-year yield dipped one basis point to -0.26%.
Britain’s 10-year yield was little changed at 0.63%.
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude dropped 2.9% to $56.67 a barrel.
Gold was little changed at $1,558.55 an ounce.
This afternoon on the Economic Front we have the Interest Rate Decision from the ECB at 12.45 pm, where no change is expected. At 1.30 pm we have the press conference from ECB President Lagarde. Also, at this time we have the U.S Weekly Jobless Claims. Finally, we have the Euro-Zone Consumer Confidence at 3.00 pm and the Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Activity Index at 4.00 pm.
March S&P 500
My latest 3335 short S&P position worked well with the market trading lower to my 3329 T/P level and I am now flat. It turned out to be a volatile trading session with good two-way price action before a late fade saw the S&P close unchanged. With so much optimism built into the US Market, which is the complete opposite to where we started 2019, I am on the lookout for a major surprise which could really hit this market. Traders for now are ignoring the political situation in Washington but for some reason if the Democrats were to take a lead in the polls and threaten an upset then we will see a quick 10% correction in the S&P at least. Higher wages and other input costs could easily pressure corporate profits in a backdrop of slowing revenues and domestic growth. This is not priced into the market where GDP growth is only just above 2% at this time. Remember in an election year the Fed is stuck as it does not want to be political. Today I will again look to sell the S&P from 3332/3346 with a 3355 stop. Meanwhile I will continue to be a small buyer from 3288/3298 with the same 3281 stop.
EUR/USD
No Change as I am still long at 1.1100 with the same 1.1055 stop. As I have this position too long and want to be flat ahead of the ECB Press conference at 1.30 pm I will leave my T/P level unchanged at 1.1110.
March Dollar Index
The Dollar has not moved for over a week and I am still flat. Today I will continue to be a seller from 97.50/97.90 with the same 98.25 stop.
March DAX
I still do not like the price action in the DAX. However for the market to give a sell signal we need a break and close below 13150 which is over 300 points form yesterday’s New York close. Today I will lower my buy level to 13300/13360 with a lower 13245 stop.
March FTSE
The price action in the FTSE is heavy as the market is not able to sustain any rally over the past 10 days. The rise in Sterling yesterday did not help and today I will again lower my sell level to 7565/7605 with a lower 7635 stop.
Dow Rolling Contract
It is interesting that despite little or no movement in the US Indices that the ‘’Fear & Greed Index has been hit hard closing with a reading of 74 last night well-off its post 2019 high at 97. Frustratingly the Dow just missed my 29395 sell level and I am still flat. Today I will lower my sell level slightly to 29310/29460 with a lower 29565 stop. The Dow has strong support from 28880/29030 and I will be a buyer on any dip to this area with a 28795 stop.
March NASDAQ
My NASDAQ plan worked well with the market rallying to my 9250 sell level before getting hit hard in the last 30 minutes of trading. Unfortunately, I covered this short position at my revised 9230 T/P level and I am now flat. Today I will again look to sell the market from 9230/9280 with a lower 9325 stop. Meanwhile I will leave my 9010/9070 buy level unchanged with a 8965 stop.
March BUND
No Change as I am still a buyer on any dip lower to 171.20/171.60 with the same 170.85 stop.
Gold Rolling Contract
The sideways action in Gold continues and I am still flat. Today I will leave my 1531/1541 buy level unchanged with the same 1525 stop.
Silver Rolling Contract
I am still long Silver at 17.80 with the same 17.39 stop. There is no change to my T/P level which remains at 17.95 and if any of the above levels are hit I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members
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