U.S. stocks closed at record highs as investors assessed the details of the partial trade deal with China. Treasuries gained and the US Dollar weakened. The benchmark S&P 500 finished short of an earlier all-time intraday high after President Donald Trump presided over a signing ceremony with Chinese officials. The deal commits China to do more to crack down on the theft of American technology and corporate secrets by its companies and state entities, while outlining a $200 billion spending spree to try to close its trade imbalance with the U.S. Soybeans slumped after China signalled purchases would be demand-based. The S&P 500 set an intraday record for the sixth consecutive trading session, largely ignoring disappointing Quarterly results from Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Bank of America Corp. The Nasdaq Composite and Dow Jones Industrial Average indexes also set fresh highs. U.S. markets received an added boost earlier after White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow promoted more tax cuts. Commodity markets got some numbers on China’s commitments to buy agricultural products, but doubts remain. Currency traders assessed the section that reaffirmed existing G-20 commitments, and investors in tech stocks pored over details on intellectual property concessions. Meanwhile, the Stoxx Europe 600 Index finished little changed, while equities across most of Asia fell. Russia’s currency weakened as much as 0.6% against the dollar. President Vladimir Putin replaced his long-serving Prime Minister and called for sweeping constitutional changes, fuelling speculation that the Russian leader is moving to extend his grip on power beyond the end of his term in 2024. Oil futures drifted, with West Texas Intermediate trading around $58 a barrel. Gold nudged higher.
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For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 120 points yesterday and now ahead by 1173 points for January, having made 818 points in December, 780 points in November, 1649 points in October, 1620 points in September, 2387 points in August, 1153 points in July, 1346 points in June,1722 points in May, 955 points in April and 1027 points in March. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1600 points
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Equities
The S&P 500 Index increased 0.2% to close at 3289.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average increased 0.3% to close at 29,030, the highest on record.
The NASDAQ Composite climbed 0.1% to 9259.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index was little changed at 419.
Currencies
Here is a summary of the main Changes in F.X. Markets:
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index decreased 0.1%.
The British Pound increased 0.1% to $1.3034.
The Euro gained 0.2% to $1.1151.
The Japanese Yen was little changed at 109.94 per dollar.
Bonds
The yield on 10-year Treasuries dipped three points to 1.78%, which is the lowest in six weeks
Britain’s 10-year yield fell seven basis points to 0.65%, the lowest in more than seven weeks.
Germany’s 10-year yield fell three basis points to -0.20%.
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude declined 0.4% to $57.96 a barrel.
Gold rose increased 0.6% at $1,556 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front we have German CPI at 7.00 am and this is followed at 9.30 am by UK Credit Conditions Survey. At 12.30 pm we have the latest Minutes from last month’s ECB Meeting. This is followed at 1.30 pm by U.S Weekly Jobless Claims and the Philly Fed Manufacturing Survey. Finally, at 3.00 pm we have Business Inventories and the NAHB Housing Market Index.
March S&P 500
My S&P plan worked well with the market trading higher to my 3297 sell level before falling to an intra-day low of 3280. This move lower enabled me to cover this short position at my 3290 T/P level and I am now flat. The S&P had a small rebound into the close. Investment sentiment is at a rare extreme. According to SentimentTrader.com, asset managers have established a record long position in the S&P 500 (Full and E-Mini Contracts) the Dow, the Russell 2000 and the NASDAQ E-Mini Contracts. Their net-long position represents 30% of total open-interest. The Daily Sentiment Index has risen above 90% on two of the past four trading days. Finally, the 21-day CBOE Equity Put/Call ratio has declined to 0.52, which is its lowest level in six years. In my opinion the wide array of indicators that shows investor ebullience implies the size of the impending top will be large and lasting. Today I will again look to sell the S&P on any further move higher to 3308/3320 with a higher 3331 stop. I am not going to chase the market higher and I will leave my 3252/3264 buy level unchanged with the same 3243 stop.
EUR/USD
I am still flat the Euro as the market again had a small rise. It is only a matter of time before we take out the key 1.1200/1.1250 resistance area. Today I will raise my buy level to 1.1090/1.1130 with a higher 1.1055 stop.
March Dollar Index
I am still flat the Dollar and I will now lower my sell level to 97.15/97.55 with a lower 97.90 stop.
March DAX
The DAX continues to struggle and I am still flat. Today I will leave my 13250/13310 buy level unchanged with the same 13195 stop. Despite the DAX trading heavy I am not going to chase the market lower and I will therefore leave my 13570/13640 sell level unchanged with a 13675 tight stop.
March FTSE
The FTSE again traded in a narrow range yesterday and I am still flat. Today I will now raise my sell level slightly to 7625/7665 with a higher 7705 stop.
Dow Rolling Contract
The Dow closed at a new all-time high yesterday after a volatile trading session. Initially the Dow hit my 29090 sell level before the market fell 100 points and I used this move lower to cover this position at my revised 29055 T/P level and I am now flat. The Dow has resistance from 29170/29320 and I will be a seller in this area with a 29405 stop. Given how overbought the market is trading I will leave my 28580/28730 buy level unchanged with the same 28495 stop.
March NASDAQ
The NASDAQ also traded in a narrow range yesterday and I am still flat. Just like the Dow and S&P above, I am not going to chase the NASDAQ higher and I will leave my 8930/8980 buy level unchanged with the same 8870 wider stop.
March BUND
The buy the dip returned to the Bund yesterday as the market closed 80 points higher than Tuesday’s low. I am still flat and today I will raise my buy level to 170.70/171.10 with a higher 170.35 stop.
Gold Rolling Contract
The weaker Dollar helped Gold to rally 0.6% yesterday and I am still flat. Today I will raise my buy level to 1532/1542 with a higher 1524 stop.
Silver Rolling Contract
My latest 17.75 long Silver position worked well with the market rallying to my 17.90 T/P level and I am now flat. I am still bullish on Silver and I will continue to be a buyer of this market on dips. Today my buy level will be from 17.45/17.85 with a 17.15 stop. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 18.10.
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