Last week brought something new for stock investors whiplashed by December’s drubbing and subsequent January snap-back: a lull in the action. Despite the S&P 500 Index closing 0.85% higher on Friday, it was down 0.2 percent for the week as earnings season kicked into high gear, its smallest weekly move since October. That leaves the gauge up 6.3 percent in January after the 9.2 percent tumble in December. A market unable to climb a wall of worry in the fourth quarter is proving much more adept at scaling the rocky stretches in 2019. Equities held their own in the face of the longest ever U.S. government shutdown, mixed messages on trade negotiations with China, a downward revision to global growth forecasts from the International Monetary Fund and the underwhelming results and outlook from America’s largest chipmaker, Intel Corp.
To mark my 1750th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2 year rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day To demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for detail
For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 140 points on Friday and is now ahead by 1569 points for January, having made 2803 points in December, 1541 points in November, 2094 points in October and 1279 points in September Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1600 points
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A jam-packed calendar for the week ahead will put this rediscovered resilience to the test as traders digest the implications of the temporary deal reached to reopen the government.Quarterly results from tech heavyweights including Apple Inc., Microsoft Corp., Amazon.com Inc. and Facebook Inc. are on the docket. An update from global industrial bellwether Caterpillar Inc. is also due, while reports from Mastercard Inc. and Visa Inc. will shed light on the state of the American consumer. A Chinese delegation will arrive in Washington this afternoon to talk trade ahead of Vice Premier Liu He’s arrival later in the week.
Meanwhile we have Fed Meeting and Powell Press conference on Wednesday ahead of January’s Non-Farm Payrolls report next Friday.
Currencies
The Dollar continued its recent sell-off closing 0.85% lower with the Euro closing above 1.14 for the first time in two weeks. The outperformer was Sterling which rose another 1%. Cable closed at 1.32 to hit its highest level since last November.
Equities
European Equity markets again shrugged off weak economic data with the DAX gaining 1.38% on string volume. The FTSE was again the underperformer losing 0.14% as the market was again lower on the back of the stronger Pound. Meanwhile both the Dow and S&P closed almost 1% higher helped by the re-opening of the US Government after a record 35 days of partial shutdown.
Commodities
Gold was the outperformer rising almost 2% to close over the key 1300 resistance area at 1305. Both WTI and Brent closed 1% higher.
This morning on the Economic Front we have Euro-Zone Money Supply at 9.00 am. This is followed at 1.30 pm by the Chicago Fed National Activity Index. Both the ECB President Dragi and Bank of England Governor Carney are speaking at 2.00 pm and 2.30 pm respectively. Finally we have the Dallas Fed Manufacturing Business Index at 3.30 pm
March S&P 500
I emailed my Platinum Members on Friday saying that one of the most important rules of trading is a ‘’market that does not fall on bad news but instead rallies has to be respected’’. This is certainly the case with both the US Indices and European Bourses (except the FTSE) over the past few weeks. On Friday after the S&P traded higher to my 2655 sell level I emailed my Platinum Members to exit any short position at my revised 2652 T/P level and I am still flat. The 2600/2650 is a key inflection point for the S&P. Not only does it hold the important 50 Day Moving Average but has a lot of trendline support in this wide area. If the S&P continues to build value above here then we could easily see a further rally to the December 3 high of 2810 over the coming weeks. With so much data coupled with a Fed Meeting on Wednesday as well as important earnings results this will be a key week for the S&P going forward. Today I will now raise my buy level to 2640/2652 with a 2632 stop. I no longer want to be a seller of the S&P at this time.
EUR/USD
The Euro traded the whole of Friday’s sell range for a now average short position at 1.1380. I will leave my 1.1435 stop unchanged while raising my T/P level on this position to 1.1365. If any of the above levels are hit I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
March Dollar Index
The Dollar fell short of my 96.60 sell level before falling 1% into the New York close. I am still flat and today I will now lower my sell level to 95.85/96.25 with a 96.55 stop.
March DAX
Thankfully we had no sell levels in the DAX on Friday as I have suspected that this market was ripe for a strong rally. Unfortunately the market rallied right from the Open on Friday not giving us a chance to get long. Today I will now raise my level to 11100/11160 with a 10945 stop.
March FTSE
The strong Pound has had an adverse effect on the FTSE over the past two weeks. Overnight the FTSE traded lower to my 6710 buy level. I am still long and I will now raise my stop on this position to 6765. Meanwhile I will leave my 6740 T/P level unchanged.
Dow Rolling Contract
After the Dow traded higher to my 24775 sell level with a 24864 high print the market fell to a intra-day low of 24680 before having a small rally into the close. I used this brief weakness to cover any short position at my revised 24725 T/P level and I am still flat. With the 200 Day Moving Average above here at 24976 I will again look to sell the Dow from 24925/25050 with a 25160 tight stop. I am not going to chase the market higher and today I will only raise my buy level to 24250/24420 with a 24170 tight stop.
March NASDAQ
The NASDAQ traded higher to my 6795 sell level. Finally overnight the NASDAQ traded lower to my 6755 T/P level and I am now flat. The NASDAQ has strong resistance from 6850/6900 and today I will be a small seller on any further rally to this area with a 6935 tight stop. I still do not want to be long the market at this time.
March BUND
No change as I am still a buyer on any dip lower to 164.25/164.65 with a the same 163.95 tight stop.
Gold Rolling Contract
Finally Gold broke out of its sideways trading with an explosive 2% rally on Friday. I am still flat and today I will now raise my buy level to 1285/1295 with a 1274 stop which is just below last week’s 1276 low print.
Silver Rolling Contract
My long 15.25 Silver position worked well with the market trading higher to my 15.45 T/P level and I am now flat. Today I will again look to buy the market on any dip lower to 15.20/15.60 with a 14.85 stop.
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