U.S. Equities closed lower after touching record highs as an escalation of tensions with Iran cooled last week’s rally in risk assets sparked by dovish central banks. Oil surged. The S&P 500 fell for the first time last week even after hitting a fresh intra-day high, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average briefly surpassed its Oct. 3 closing record before finishing in the red. The Index whipsawed Friday with volumes higher than the 30-day average as futures and options expired. The US Dollar was lower for a fourth day in the wake of the Federal Reserve’s dovish signals earlier in the week, while Gold traded around $1,400 an ounce for the first time since 2013. U.S. crude topped $57 a barrel.
To mark my 1850th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2 year rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day To demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoblecom for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 60 points on Friday and is now ahead by 1042 points for June, having made 1722 points in May, 955 points in April, 1027 points in March, 1013 points in February and 1671 points in January. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1600 points
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Equities
The risk-on mood was damped after President Donald Trump said he approved strikes against Iran in retaliation for downing a U.S. drone, but then called off the operation. Policy makers in the U.S., Europe and Australia were among those signalling a readiness to do more to support growth this week, helping fuel gains for equities while putting increased pressure on Sovereign Bond Yields. Next week, the trade issue is back up: Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping are set to meet during the Group of 20 summit in Japan. The S&P 500 Index fell 0.1% to close at 2947. The Nasdaq Composite Index dropped 0.2% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average slumped 0.1%. The Stoxx Europe 600 fell 0.4%, as Health care firms weighed on the Index. Asian markets were also red overall, with Japanese, South Korean and Australian shares declining as Chinese stocks rose. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index dropped 0.4%, the first decrease in four days.
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.2%, the fourth straight decline. The Euro strengthened and most European bonds slipped after data showed economic activity in the region improved in June. The Euro gained 0.7% to $1.1372, while the Japanese Yen weakened 0.1% to 107.40 per dollar. The British pound rose 0.3% to $1.2745.
Bonds
Bond ended the week by trading in a narrow range, reversing some of Thursday’s sell-off with the yield on 10-year Treasuries increasing 3 basis points to 2.06%. Meanwhile in Europe, Germany’s 10-year yield climbed 3 basis points to -0.29% and Britain’s 10-year yield rose 4 basis points to 0.85%.
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate posted its biggest weekly increase since December 2016, closing 1.7% higher at $57.61 a barrel. Meanwhile Gold increased 0.8% to $1,399.86 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front we have the German IFO Business Survey at 9.00 am. This is followed by the Chicago Fed National Activity Index at 1.30 pm. Finally we have the Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index at 3.30 pm.
September S&P 500
The S&P made a new intra-day high before selling off into the close and I am still flat as yet again the S&P fell short of my buy level. This morning the market is opening higher as for once we had no negative tweets from Trump over the weekend. Today I will again raise my buy level to 2932/2942 with a 2924 stop. I still do not want to be short the S&P at this time as I am still looking for the market to trade higher to my 3050/3100 target range over the coming weeks.
EUR/USD
The Euro had another impressive trading session on Friday with the market rallying 0.75%. This morning the Euro is opening higher with the market now trading the whole of my sell range for a now average short position at 1.1370. I am not comfortable with the position and I will now lower my stop on this trade to 1.1410. I will also raise my T/P level to 1.1355 and if any of the above levels are hit I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
September Dollar Index
I am still flat the Dollar which has sold off aggressively over the past week. The Dollar has strong support from 94.80/95.25 and today I will be a buyer on any dip to this area with a 98.45 stop.
September DAX
My DAX plan worked well with the market trading lower to my 12275 buy level late on Friday before rallying to my 12310 T/P level this morning and I am now flat. Today I will again look to buy the DAX from 12180/12245 with a 12125 stop. Despite the stronger Euro I still do not want to be short the market at this time.
September FTSE
The FTSE also traded lower to my 7315 buy level on Friday afternoon before rallying to my revised 7330 T/P level and I am now flat. The strength in Sterling is hindering the FTSE and as Cable is due a decent bounce the FTSE may have trouble rallying this week. However I am reluctant to go short the FTSE especially as I expect any sell-off in the US Markets to be contained. Today I will be a small buyer of the FTSE from 7245/7285 with a 7215 stop.
Dow Rolling Contract
I am still flat the Dow and today I will again raise my buy level slightly to 26450/26610 with a 26370 stop. The Dow has strong resistance from 26950/27100 and I will be a small seller on any rally to this area with a 27180 tight stop.
September NASDAQ
I am still flat the market and today I will raise my buy level to 7660/7720 with a 7610 stop.
September BUND
Finally we saw some profit taking in the Bund on Friday with the market closing 50 points lower. I am still flat and I will now lower my sell level to 172.65/173.05 with a 173.35 tight stop.
Gold Rolling Contract
Gold is trading at its highest level in six years as finally we were able to close above the key 1350/1375 resistance level which has held the market for the last few years. I am still flat and today I will raise my buy level to 1375/1385 with a 1367 stop.
Silver Rolling Contract
Silver traded lower to my 15.25 buy level on Friday before rallying to my revised 15.35 T/P level and I am now flat. Today I will again look to buy Silver on any dip lower to 14.95/15.25 with the same 14.60 stop.
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