U.S. Equity Markets fell in the early trading on Friday before rallying throughout the day, finishing the day mixed with the Dow closing lower by 0.71% while the NASDAQ 100 finished the session with a gain of 0.61%. Shortly before the Cash Indices opened the Federal Reserve spooked the markets. It decided not to extend eased capital requirements for banks, instead letting the policy expire at the end of March as originally planned. This sparked concerns that banks would begin to pull back from lending, as they would have to have enough capital to cover their Treasurys’. Vaccination news was positive, however. At some point in the last 24 hours, the U.S. likely passed 100 million doses administered under President Joe Biden, achieving his goal weeks in advance. And more States are opening up their vaccination eligibility to more people. That should speed up the pace of vaccinations, and help boost consumer confidence and spending. This brought the optimism for markets to rally off their lows and finish higher. European Markets declined on new lockdowns. Daily coronavirus cases in Germany jumped to a two-month high, approaching the level that Chancellor Angela Merkel has said would warrant new restrictions. France’s government imposed a new lockdown in Paris, citing the spread of highly contagious COVID-19 variants. But it was not all bad news. British Consumer Confidence rose to the highest level since the pandemic hit last year, boosted by the country’s planned reopening plan. And the European Medicines Agency said that AstraZeneca’s (AZN) COVID-19 vaccine was still safe, but added a blood clot warning, prompting some European countries to resume using the shot. Elsewhere, Oil rose 2.45% as it rebounded from Thursday’s steep decline, while Gold rose 0.10% on little news.
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For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 315 points last Friday and is now ahead by 2644 points for March, having closed February with an impressive gain of 3286 points, having made 2077 points in January, 2273 points in December, 2025 points in November, 2779 points in October, 3042 points in September, 2383 points in August, 3128 points in July, 2580 points in June, 2456 points in May, 4773 points in April, and an incredible 9264 points in March. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1600 points
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Equities
The S&P 500 closed 0.06% lower at a price of 3913.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 234 points lower for a 0.71% loss at a price of 32,628.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 0.61% higher at a price of 12,866.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 0.5% lower.
The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell 0.9%.
This morning the Nikkei closed 2.07% lower at a price of 29,174.
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.1% higher.
The Euro closed 0.1% lower at $1.1904.
The British Pound closed 0.5% lower at $1.3863.
The Japanese Yen closed 0.1% higher at 108.83 per dollar.
Bonds
Germany’s 10-year yield closed unchanged at -0.29%.
Britain’s 10-year yield closed three basis points lower at 0.84%.
US 10 Year Treasury closed two basis points higher at 1.73%.
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude closed 2.45% higher at $58.84 a barrel.
Gold closed 0.10% higher at $1,751.80 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front we have Euro-Zone Current Account at 9.00 am. This is followed by the Chicago Fed National Activity Index at 12.30 pm and a speech from Fed Chairman Powell at 1.00 pm. Finally, we have Existing Home Sales at 2.00 pm.
June S&P 500
My S&P plan worked well with the market trading lower to my 3885 buy level before rallying to my revised 3894 T/P level and I am still flat. With Fed Chairman Powell speaking at 1.00 pm I would expect sideways trading ahead of his speech. The S&P needs to break and close below 3875 for me to turn short-term bearish. I am still expecting a meaningful top in the market this month but we may see one more rally first. Today, I will be a buyer from 3868/3883 with a 3857 ‘’Closing Stop’’. The S&P has resistance from 3925/3938 and I will be a small seller in this range with a 3951 ‘’Closing Stop’’.
EUR/USD
Shortly after I posted on Friday, I was stopped out of my 1.1910 long position for a small loss at 1.1895 and I am still flat. The Euro has strong support from 1.1810/1.1860 where I will again be a buyer with a 1.1775 stop. I still do not want to be short the Euro at this time.
June Dollar Index
Just as I posted the Dollar was trading at my 91.65 T/P level on my 91.85 latest short-position and I am still flat. This morning, the Dollar is trading higher at 92.00. We have resistance from 92.35/92.85 where I will again be a seller with a 93.21 stop. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 92.05.
June DAX
My DAX plan worked well with the market trading lower to my 14580 buy level before rallying to my 14630 T/P level and I am now flat. The DAX has support from 14390/14460 where I will again be a buyer with a 14335 tight stop.
June FTSE
Thankfully the FTSE rallied to my 6690 T/P level on my latest 6660 long-position ahead of the March Contract expiring and I am now flat. This morning, the FTSE is trading lower at 6630. We have support from 6530/6580 where I will again be a buyer with a 6535 stop. I still do not want to be short the FTSE at this time.
Dow Rolling Contract
The divergence between the Dow and NASDAQ continues. While the NASDAQ closed higher on Friday, we saw the first sign of weakness in the Dow in a few weeks with the market trading this morning at 32470 – 750 points lower from last Thursday’s 33228 latest all-time high. On Friday the Dow traded the whole of my buy range for a 32620 average long position before we rallied to a rebound high at 32780. This move higher enabled me to cover this position at my revised 32680 T/P level and I am now flat. The Dow has short-term support from 32200/32380 where I will be a buyer with a 32050 ‘’Closing Stop.’’ If stopped, I will be an aggressive buyer from 31500/31700 with a 31350 ‘’Closing Stop’’.
June NASDAQ
My NASDAQ plan worked well with the market trading lower to my 12700 buy level before rallying to my 12780 T/P level and I am now flat. This morning the NASDAQ is trading higher at 12900. We have support from 12680/12780 where I will again be a buyer with a 12595 ‘’Closing Stop’’. I still do not want to be short the NASDAQ at this time.
June BUND
U.S Treasury Bonds have now closed lower for eight consecutive weeks. This is the longest weekly closing streak in near 17 years, since May 2004 (9 weeks). As a result the Daily Sentiment Index (DSI) has fallen to just 9% bulls for the third time in three weeks. This implies that the U.S Bond Market is due a rally and goes in tandem with my view that Central Banks and Governments cannot allow Bond Yields to rise further given the level of Global Debt. In contrast, The Bund has rallied over the past week as the ECB steps up it’s Bond purchases. The Bund never came close to Friday’s buy range and I will now raise my buy level to 170.80/171.20 with a higher 170.35 stop.
Gold Rolling Contract
No Change. Gold traded sideways for most of Friday and I am still flat. As I am now long Silver, I will lower my Gold buy level to 1699/1710 with a 1689 stop.
Silver Rolling Contract
This morning Silver has traded lower to my 25.60 buy level. I am still long and I will now lower my T/P level to 25.95. I will add to this position at 25.00 while leaving my stop unchanged at 24.65.
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