U.S. Indexes closed higher on Friday as sentiment improved on hopes of progress in US-Iran negotiations, driving a risk-on tone across assets. Equities gained, led by tech, while crude prices fell on reports suggesting a potential breakthrough in talks. Moves were choppy amid conflicting headlines, and crude futures ultimately settled mixed. Tech outperformed after strong Intel earnings lifted the chip sector. Geopolitics remained the dominant driver, with reports pointing to a possible resumption of negotiations, including US envoys travelling to engage with Iran’s foreign minister. However, Iranian media continued to push back on the likelihood of direct talks, keeping uncertainty in play and limiting follow-through in risk assets. Reports suggested talks could take place between Iran and the US on Sunday, but only after Iran-Pakistan talks. The move lower in crude supported Treasuries, with the curve bull-steepening as easing oil prices reduced inflation concerns, particularly at the front end. Meanwhile, T-notes were also supported after it was confirmed the probe into Fed Chair Powell has been dropped, although the White House later said it is still ongoing. In FX, the Dollar weakened in the risk-on environment, with G10 peers broadly firmer. Antipodeans outperformed, with the New Zealand Dollar leading gains on hawkish RBNZ pricing, while the Euro and Sterling also advanced. In commodities, Gold and Silver were bid, supported by the decline in the Dollar and Bond Yields. Data remained of secondary focus, with University of Michigan sentiment declining by less than expected, while inflation expectations rose, reinforcing the broader stagflation narrative. Attention this week turns to a plethora of central banks, including the Fed, BoJ, BoE, BoC and ECB, while US data includes PCE, GDP and the ISM manufacturing PMI report, though geopolitics is likely to remain the main driver of price action. The Final University of Michigan data for April topped expectations as sentiment rose to 49.8 from a preliminary 47.6 but was down from 53.3 in March. Conditions rose to 52.5 from the preliminary 50.1, versus 55.8 in March, while expectations came in at 48.1, versus a preliminary 46.1 and 51.7 in March. One-year inflation expectations ticked down to 4.7% from the initial 4.8%, but were still up M/M from 3.8%. Longer-term 5-10-year expectations edged higher to 3.5% from 3.4%, again topping last month’s 3.2%. Surveys of Consumers Director Hsu said: “After the two-week cease-fire was announced and gas prices softened a touch, sentiment recovered a modest portion of its early-month losses. The Iran conflict appears to influence consumer views primarily through shocks to gasoline and potentially other prices. In contrast, military and diplomatic developments that do not lift supply constraints or lower energy prices are unlikely to buoy consumers.” Elsewhere, Oil closed lower by 1.2% while following a volatile trading session Gold ended Friday with a 0.5% gain.
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For anyone following my Platinum Service it was made 399 points on Friday and is now ahead by 1595 points for April after ending March with a massive gain of 9002 points, having closed February with a strong gain of 5482 points after ending January with a gain of 4757 points, having closed December with a gain of 2599 points, after ending the month of November with a gain of 4542 points, after ending October with a nice gain of 5110 points after closing September with a gain of 3774 points while ending August with a gain of 3362 points after closing July with a gain of 3753 points after closing June with a gain of 3530 points, having closed May with a gain of 3606 points, after closing April with a gain of 7685 points after closing March with a gain of 2254 points while closing February with a gain of 4180 points. January ended with a gain of 2768 points while 1997 points were gained in December. October ended with a gain of 2179 points, after closing September with a gain of 4402 points, following a loss of 301 points in August. July gained 1908 points while June saw a gain of 2074 points. The Platinum Service made a record 9619 points in October 2022. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 2300 points. I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking HERE Please subscribe to this for new interview notification
Equities
The S&P 500 closed 0.80% higher at a price of 7164.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 80 points lower for a 0.16% loss at a price of 49,229.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 1.95% higher at a price of 27,303.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 0.58% lower.
Last Friday, the MSCI Asia Pacific closed 0.7% higher.
This Morning, the Nikkei closed 1.14% higher at a price of 60,394.
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.23% lower.
The Euro closed 0.27% higher at $1.1714.
The British Pound closed 0.41% higher at $1.3521.
The Japanese Yen rose 0.15% closing at $159.36.
Bonds
U.K.’s 10-Year Gilt closed 31 basis points lower at 4.95%.
Germany’s 10-Year Bund Yield closed 3 basis points lower at 2.99%
U.S.10 Year Treasury closed 1 basis points lower at 4.31%.
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude closed 1.20% lower at $94.70 a barrel.
Gold closed 0.51% higher at $4717.10 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front we have German GFK Consumer Climate at 7.00 am, followed by the U.K. CBI Distributive Trades Survey at 11.00 am. The only other data of note is the Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index which will be released at 4.00 pm.
Cash S&P 500
This will easily be one of the busiest weeks of the quarter, if not the year. Wednesday, April 29, will be the highlight, driven by a Fed meeting and earnings from Meta, Microsoft, Amazon, and Alphabet later that evening. Then on Thursday, there will be ECB and BOE rate decisions, along with Apple results after the close. Let’s not forget the BOJ rate decision early tomorrow morning. That is a lot of information for the market to absorb in a short period of time. On top of that, headlines out of Iran continue to flow into the trading week, whipsawing everything from oil to stocks, as well as Interest Rates and the Dollar. Meanwhile, the Dispersion Index is at an extreme, and its seasonal cycle is due to turn lower. Once the mega caps report this week, their implied volatility levels should begin to fall and move more in line with index-level volatility. That will push dispersion lower and implied correlations higher. It does not matter whether companies report good or bad results—the dispersion trade is likely to unwind, and implied correlations should rise. This is driven by mechanics, not fundamentals. No chart or headline will warn you in advance. Implied volatility typically rises into earnings and then falls afterward, which is why the gap between S&P 500 constituent volatility and index-level volatility is so wide. That spread is now at a historically elevated level, which is why the dispersion index is at such a high level. A good example is Meta. If its one-week at-the-money implied volatility falls back to its historical range, it could decline from roughly 65% to about 23%–28%. That would cause options premiums for May 1 expirations—especially out-of-the-money contracts—to fall sharply. A $700 call expiring on May 1, currently trading for around $15, would require the stock to rise above $715 just to break even. The issue is that the option is carrying an implied volatility of about 75%. If implied volatility falls as expected—by roughly 50% to 55%—IV would drop to around 30%, and the premium could collapse to roughly $3.50. Meanwhile, Meta is pricing in about a 6.3% post-earnings move. From Friday’s close, that implies a range of roughly $630 to $715. In other words, the stock would need to exceed the implied move for that $700 call to make money. There is another issue: significant call gamma is concentrated at $700, making it a likely resistance level. In a positive gamma environment, dealer hedging flows typically involve buying on pullbacks and selling into rallies. If the stock cannot clear $700, many options positioned at or above that level are likely to expire worthless. That also means call holders are likely to become sellers, creating additional pressure after hours and into Thursday and Friday. Now apply that setup across the other mega-cap names, and it becomes clear why dispersion is likely to fall and implied correlations are set to rise. The unwind of this trade is likely close. That said, if Meta delivers strong enough results to break through $700, the rally could extend somewhat longer. But the mechanics do not favor that outcome. The S&P 500 Dispersion Index series goes back to around the middle of 2014. It has only been higher on a couple of occasions: October of 2025, the tariff tantrum, and COVID. The index can rise during times of broader market volatility, but on a quarterly basis it tends to move up into earnings season and back down afterward. We are seeing a number of negative divergences in the market. Both the S&P and NDX are at new all-time highs while the Dow and RSP are not. At the same time Volumes in the S&P have been “sort of nonexistent.” When market participants thin out and the top of the book thins, markets tend to move more quickly than they normally might. This is what happened on Thursday afternoon when the S&P hit a low at 7040 before miraculously jumping 80 Handles into the close before rallying again to a new all-time closing high on Friday. With an RSI at 74 I just cannot be a buyer of these levels especially as oil refuses to trade lower. Overnight the S&P hit my next sell level at 7175 for a now 7097 average short position. I will now raise my T/P level to 7070 and reassess if triggered. Meanwhile, I will continue to have no stop on this position. If any of the above levels are executed, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
EUR/USD
The Euro just missed my buy range before having a small rally into Friday’s New York close. Today, I will leave my levels unchanged: The Euro has short-term support below from 1.1580/1.1660 where I will be a small buyer with a 1.1495 ‘Closing Stop’. I will now lower my sell level to 1.1790/1.1860 with a lower 1.1935 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 1.1730. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 1.1730.
Dollar Index
The Dollar rallied to my 98.70 T/P level on my latest 98.30 average long position and I am now flat. The Dollar has support below from 97.40/98.20 where I will again be a buyer with a lower 96.85 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 98.80. I still do not want to be short the Dollar at this time.
Russell 2000
No Change: I am still short the Russell at an average rate of 2725 from last week. To reduce risk, I will leave my 2700 T/P level unchanged with the same 2795 ‘Closing Stop’. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
FTSE 100
After the FTSE hit my initial 10350 buy level we had a small rally to my revised 10397 T/P level and I am now flat. The FTSE has short-term support from 10200/10280 where I will again be a buyer with a lower 10095 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 10350. Despite the higher Gilt Yields I still do not want to be short the FTSE at this time.
Dow Rolling Contract
The Dow never came close to Thursday’s sell range and I am still flat. The Dow continues to underperform both the NDX and S&P making it difficult to be short as the market can always play catchup at any stage. The Dow has short-term support from 48350/48650 where I will be a buyer with a 48195 tight ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 48940.
Cash NASDAQ 100
The NDX saw plenty of two-way price action on Thursday before turning around from lows at 26550 and rally an incredible 750 points into Friday’s close. Intel shares rising 25% certainly proving the catalyst for this latest rally. Meanwhile, the Semi-Conductor Index has now closed higher for 18 consecutive trading sessions. I do not ever remember any index having a winning streak to match this one. The RSI for the NDX is now at 75 with the market severely overbought. Thursday’s sell-off saw the market hit my revised 26750 T/P level on my latest 26880 average short position. Friday’s rally has me short again at an average rate of 27010 with a now 26850 T/P level. I will have a 27305 ‘Closing Stop’ on this position. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
December BUND
I am still flat the Bund. I will not chase the Bund lower as I continue to be a seller from 126.70/127.50 with the same 128.05 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 126.10.
Gold Rolling Contract
I am still flat. The bottom of the Bollinger Band comes in at a price of 4356 this morning. Today, I will continue to be a buyer from 4320/4420 while leaving my 4195 wider ‘Closing Stop’ unchanged. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 4530. If this view changes, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Silver Rolling Contract
My Silver plan worked well as the market traded lower to my 74.50 buy level before rallying to my revised 76.32 T/P level and I am now flat. Today, I will again be a buyer on any further dip lower to 70.00/73.00 with a lower 68.55 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 75.30. I still do not want to be short Silver at this time.
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